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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#332326: Oct 7th 2020 at 9:59:10 AM

It absolutely blows my mind that we're seeing multiple serious polls with Biden up by 12+ and 14+, that's landslide numbers.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Lazlo74 from A tropical hell-hole Since: May, 2018
#332327: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:01:01 AM

I don't think even the GOP has an argument against nanomachines, son!grin

Scaled seeker
RedHunter543 Crimson Paladin Since: Jul, 2016 Relationship Status: Barbecuing
Crimson Paladin
#332328: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:13:38 AM

Data is important, but still, in comparison to 2016 how good are these poll numbers?

"The Black Rage makes us strong, because we must resist its temptations every day of our lives or be forever damned!"
GoldenKaos Captain of the Dead City from Cirith Ungol Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
Captain of the Dead City
#332329: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:14:12 AM

Yeah, hopefully the keep up, but those numbers are kinda historic - hopefully enough to secure a quick and decisive win on November 3rd.

The main concerns I have are twofold. The first is just the electoral college screwing over the popular vote, as they have done for every Republican president for the past 20 years.

The second is the confusion that could be wrought due to the increase of mail in voters, and the resulting staggering of the receiving (and therefore counting) of the votes. As I understand it the total of the votes cast won't be known for a few days after election day. Even if Biden wins legit when all votes are counted, Trump could seem to win by the votes counted on that first day (it does favour him slightly in this regard, more GOP voters are willing to go out and vote in person), and declare victory - and then once the totals are fully counted and Biden comes out on top, he (and the GOP, and the right's media apparatus) can claim this is some kind of shenanigans the Dems are engaging in to fix the election and literally just try a coup to keep Trump in. That's a very dangerous and unpredictable possibility, but Trump would have to win the votes counted so far on that first day to make it work.

The best possible outcome therefore is for Biden to crush Trump so decisively that the electoral college can't screw it all up, and that Biden comes out on top on that very first day. The polls are hopepilling me that this is possible atm, but I'm not going to assume it happens just yet.


[up] Very. Double digits is nuts. Hillary I think was more like +4 or so up?

Edited by GoldenKaos on Oct 7th 2020 at 6:16:12 PM

"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#332330: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:17:48 AM

Between 1 and 4 points, depending on the poll. She took the popular vote by about 2%, for reference.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
GoldenKaos Captain of the Dead City from Cirith Ungol Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
Captain of the Dead City
#332331: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:18:56 AM

IIRC Obama's decisive victory over Romney was at +5 - something like that.

"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#332332: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:23:15 AM

A few weeks ago, my assumption was that Biden would win by about Obama's margins. But now polls have him ahead by levels Obama never had.

Not sure what to compare him to now though. Reagan ran dominant campaigns in a less polarized environment, and Bill Clinton had Ross Perot draining votes from the Republicans.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Steven (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
#332333: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:24:00 AM

COVID engineered to kill specific people? I don't think the dems would take Metal Gear Solid that literally.

Remember, these idiots drive, fuck, and vote. Not always in that order.
astrokitty Happiness is a cup of tea from Somewhere Out There Since: May, 2014 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
Happiness is a cup of tea
#332334: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:26:17 AM

The more positive things are looking to be, the more I have to try and convince myself that something awful will happen and decimate that positivity so as to not get my hopes up. I just don't want to be optimistic about this.

Somebody once told me the world was macaroni, I took a bite out of a tree
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#332335: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:26:47 AM

So how historic are those numbers compared to earlier elections than the last one?

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#332336: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:28:46 AM

Ah, missed Rationalinsanity's post. NVM.

Edited by nova92 on Oct 7th 2020 at 10:29:33 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#332337: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:30:56 AM

And some of Biden's better polls have up at Reagan's 1984 stomp. Now, again Biden won't be winning anywhere near 49 states because polarization. But he might be in for the biggest Democratic stomp in generations.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#332338: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:35:17 AM

Let's just hope for downballot effects.

ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#332339: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:35:45 AM

[up][up] If we had a miracle, he'd beat Trump in all 50 states. That sort of electoral landslide victory would...well, it'd destroy Trump's ego for good and probably cripple the Republicans for a generation.

Edited by ScubaWolf on Oct 7th 2020 at 1:35:52 PM

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#332340: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:35:55 AM

In 2016, Hillary’s polling average was usually between +3 and +7 from the summer onwards, with a few dips down to a statistical tie. As of Oct 7, 2016 it was +5.5.

But Biden’s polling numbers in PA, WI, MI are similar to what Hillary’s were in 2016 (ahead of Trump by 5-6 points).

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/

Edited by Galadriel on Oct 7th 2020 at 1:38:00 PM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#332341: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:36:08 AM

Hacks on Taps mentioned that, in addition to pulling money for ads entirely out of Ohio and Iowa, Trump is also diverting a lot of money from his campaign in other swing states to put more and more into Florida and North Carolina.

Meanwhile Biden is going to soon be campaigning in Georgia.

ShadowWingLG Since: Dec, 2013
#332342: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:38:22 AM

Wait so he pulled ALL the money out of OH? And OH is (at last check) really close or leaning blue? AND OH is a "Must Win if we have a snowballs chance in Hel" for Trump?!

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#332343: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:40:27 AM

> Meanwhile Biden is going to soon be campaigning in Georgia.

[Marching Through Georgia intensives]

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#332344: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:42:12 AM

[up][up] Chalk it up to a combination of desperation, running out of money, and a lack of a coherent campaign stratehy.

Edited by Redmess on Oct 7th 2020 at 7:42:35 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#332345: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:42:50 AM

[up][up] [lol]

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#332346: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:43:46 AM

All money for TV ads. I'm sure they'll keep doing other things. But this is still robbing Peter to pay Paul.

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Galadriel Since: Feb, 2015
#332348: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:46:45 AM

Trump’s a couple points up in OH, and he can’t realistically win without NC and FL.

But all the news articles earlier in the year were about the campaign being flush with money, so I can’t image where it all went.

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#332349: Oct 7th 2020 at 10:48:53 AM

So like, remind me how money affects a campaign?

i'm tired, my friend
Demongodofchaos2 Face me now, bitch! from In a Cultivation World (Ancient one) Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines

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