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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#332001: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:29:59 AM

Trump was already the lowest winning Republican to win Texas in a while back in 2016 at a R+9%. Aggregate polls for the state have the 2020 race in the margin of error for polls.

Internal polls are likely so bad that the state governor did blatant voter suppression by ordering every county to only have one absentee ballot collection location.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
PointMaid Since: Jun, 2014
#332002: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:31:22 AM

Even if the ads don't flip Texas for the electoral college seats, if Biden still wins the electoral college and the ads have an effect on the down-ballot races, that could be mighty helpful for the Democrat's agenda.

Don't know the status of any down-ballot races and how likely that is, though, not paying much attention to Texas politics.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#332003: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:33:29 AM

538 gives Biden a 28% chance of taking Texas.

Holy shit, that's just 2% less than Trump's odds in 2016.

That's amazing.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#332004: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:35:56 AM

To put it another way, they give Biden a better chance of taking Texas than Trump has of winning at all.

RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#332005: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:40:03 AM

Wow. I'm actually voting from abroad in Houston; I hope we can make a difference.

It's been fun.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#332006: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:44:52 AM

I think the big takeaway isn't that Biden is putting shit into Texas, but that Trump's electoral map and financial situations are so awful that he has to pull money out of Ohio.

No Ohio, no Republican Presidential win. Fullstop.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#332007: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:48:29 AM

Trump, the self-proclaimed "King of Debt", is infamous for burning money like vegetarians burns calories in a salad.

I am not surprised that he is "in the red" already and forced to cut corners and states off his expenses...

PointMaid Since: Jun, 2014
#332008: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:50:02 AM

From that article, the party line seems to be 'we're so confident about those states, we're putting our money into places we're in more danger!'

I'm not really buying it since they seem to be in deep trouble, but ya know.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#332009: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:51:44 AM

Trump hired a bunch of grifters and fraudsters to run his campaign, and they made off with tens of millions. And spent millions more inefficiently.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Oct 6th 2020 at 2:52:01 PM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#332010: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:54:15 AM

[up][up][up] Oh, he does that on purpose, actually. The strategy is to be so much in debt that he can deduct it from his taxes, so he doesn't have to pay any. Hence the 175 dollar tax bills.

It's really weird to realize that being in massive debt isn't incompetence, it's actually the whole point.

Edited by Redmess on Oct 6th 2020 at 7:56:22 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#332011: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:57:56 AM

Trump believes Ohio is a lock.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#332012: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:59:50 AM

Believes, or convinced himself? Who can tell? The guy has a tendency to delude himself.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#332013: Oct 6th 2020 at 10:59:53 AM

Texas is looking very impressive for Biden, win or lose he’s expected to do well there, Hillary did surprisingly well there, the state is pretty urban and has a diverse population, so the more Republicans shift their focus towards rural-whites the more in-play Texas becomes.

538 currently give Biden better odds of winning Texas than they do Trump if winning Pennsylvania.

[up][up] He can believe what he likes, the polls have it very close, Biden is probably benefiting from Kasich’s endorsement there.

Edited by Silasw on Oct 6th 2020 at 6:01:29 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#332014: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:01:52 AM

I've also read several articles that attribute part of Biden's success in (light) Red states to Trump's alienation of suburban white women. And the suburbs were key to the Democrats success in 2018.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
ShadowWingLG Since: Dec, 2013
#332015: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:01:52 AM

  • looks at the OH Polls* Uh...it looks like a toss up to me with Biden favored to win... And he's pulling money OUT of OH?!

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#332016: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:05:28 AM

Trump’s campaign isn’t doing great for money, between the grift from staff and them occasionally buying ads in DC to improve his mood.

Throw in Bloomberg seeing to be on a quest to see if it’s possible to buy redemption for stop-and-frisk, and the recent Dem fundraising and Biden has a ton of money.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#332017: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:09:56 AM

[up][up] It has all the signs of full panic mode.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#332018: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:11:19 AM

Isn't Texas mostly red with just like a couple of highly populated cities that are distinctly blue?

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#332019: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:12:09 AM

Yes, but those cities are where everyone lives.

Kentucky has two medium sized cities and they're both solidly blue, counting for 90% of the Democrats in the state.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Oct 6th 2020 at 11:12:47 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
luisedgarf from Mexico Since: May, 2009 Relationship Status: I won't say I'm in love
#332020: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:14:10 AM

Changing the topic a bit, how the whole thing about Trump having coronavirus could really affect the Russians, especially Putin? Since, if something happens to Trump, even if Pence replace him, I doubt he could win anyway and in the case Biden wins, the consequences for both Putin and Russia would be likely very dire, since it's very likely Biden and the U.S. government would try to find some way to remove him from power, or at least trying to neutralize him the best they can.

Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#332021: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:16:24 AM

I do not think the U.S has enough power to destabilize Russia in that manner. Not without risking war.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#332022: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:17:16 AM

While they'd lose an asset and Biden would certainly be more active in countering Russian activity in Europe and the Middle East, regime change attempts aren't happening.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#332023: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:18:09 AM

The US is not going to remove Putin from power, there are a variety of actions Biden could take against Putin as a way to push back after Trump, but a direct attempt to remove him from power is far beyond even the harshest realistic ideas.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#332024: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:19:07 AM

There is no way they're suddenly to talk about removing Putin from if Biden wins,that absurd,what they will do is hammer them sanctions as before (hopefully anyway)

The only time you'd hear them talk about removing Putin from power is if he declared war on the United States suddenly

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#332025: Oct 6th 2020 at 11:19:15 AM

Trump pissed away most of the US's world influence so its a massive up hill battle to even get us on 2016 footing. Even countering Russia in any way is going to be really hard.

Edited by Memers on Oct 6th 2020 at 11:20:07 AM


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