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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
It's worth noting that the election has already started. Early voting has begun in eight states, and starts in the next few days in several more.
This greatly complicates the question of what happens if he dies; what happens to the votes that have already been cast?
Edited by HighCrate on Oct 2nd 2020 at 9:40:59 AM
What are you basing that on?
AFAIK there's no precedent for taking an American citizen's vote for a candidate and changing it to another candidate by fiat.
Now, electors are a different story— they aren't bound by the results of the popular vote in all states— but AFAIK you can't just take a vote for John Smith and say, "lol, j/k, that's actually for Smith Johnson."
Edited by HighCrate on Oct 2nd 2020 at 9:47:02 AM
So, the White House said that Trump would be on a call with the Andrew Cuomo today. However, Cuomo's office has just responded that the call has taken place with Pence instead.
Experience from how Boris Johnson's symptoms and disease progression were reported on suggests to take anything from the White House with a pinch of salt.
I mean, we had Downing Street reporting that he was working on government papers, then less than 12 hours later we had that he was hospitalised and receiving oxygen treatment in intensive care (i.e. one step removed from being placed on a ventilator).
Someone posted a few pages back the protocols for deciding who is President if a candidate dies mid-election or between election and inauguration. Depending on timing, either the GOP would select a new candidate or Pence would become the candidate. It's not ambiguous.
Edited by Fighteer on Oct 2nd 2020 at 12:49:22 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"In regards to whether this would benefit Trump...I think one factor that needs to be considered is to what extent the “it’s his own damn fault” narrative had taken off.
Oh God! Natural light!From what I understand from an earlier post today, if Trump died, Pence would become the de facto candidate, and would receive the votes cast for Trump. This is an obvious rules patch so no one tries to assassinate a candidate during voting in the hopes this will invalidate votes.
Or at least, I sure hope it is.
So... No, Trump dying would not result in Biden suddenly winning by a land slide.
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Edited by Redmess on Oct 2nd 2020 at 6:58:35 PM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest timesFrom what I've been reading, both parties have it in their rules that if the president elect dies between the election starting and the Electoral College vote, then electors would be instructed to vote for the vice president elect. There has been one case where a losing candidate had died prior to the Electoral College meeting and their Electors scattered their votes to other candidates, but this candidate was third party (Horace Greeley in 1872).
The 20th Amendment to the Constitution states that if the president dies after being voted on by the Electoral College, but before being sworn in, the the vice president elect becomes president elect.
Edited by tclittle on Oct 2nd 2020 at 12:01:30 PM
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."I know that sounds weird, but if COVID kills Trump, then the GOP pivots to Pence. Mike Pence doesn't stir up excitement the way that Trump did but that doesn't matter 'cause Trump already stirred it up. All Trump's base needs to believe is that Pence will "carry on Trump's legacy and fulfill his agenda".
Fortunately, your argument falls apart here, neither Trump nor presumably Pence can win with just their base
.
Trump is having serious problems right now, replacing him with a less charismatic and less popular man wouldn't improve their odds. At best the chance of defeat would stay the same, at worse his odss would be even more abyssmal.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 2nd 2020 at 10:07:08 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang

It's a form of negative wishful thinking. "We're in a precariously winning position here, so every disruption is more likely to be negative than positive." It doesn't match reality.
The scenarios in which Trump being incapacitated by COVID-19 benefits his reelection chances are so convoluted and remote that they defy simple common-sense analysis. There are barely four weeks left until the election. There literally is not time for the GOP to mount a new campaign on the back of Pence.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"