Nov 2023 Mod notice:
There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.
If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations
and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines
before posting here.
Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.
If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules
when posting here.
In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.
Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
(@Charles, in response to Pence's ability to justify Trump) It's one thing to give a coherent speech in front of an audience who are already amenable to your point of view and are just looking for a way to quiet down that nagging little voice in your head.
It's another thing entirely to give a coherent speech against a former prosecutor in a debate setting where she can and will rebut your points and challenge those gaping holes and inconsistencies.
The big question is whether Pence and/or his team would be creative and depraved enough to lean into QAnon shit over this. They've already laid a disturbing amount of groundwork for 'the Democrats assassinated/attempted to assassinate Trump and blamed it on a fake virus', and it remains to be seen whether this will simply result in a spate of domestic terrorism, or whether the Republican leadership will lean into its full Reichstag Fire potential. Like, I know that the forum has a rule against fearmongering, but this really is the logical extension of existing rhetoric from a party run by and catering to Fox-addled boomer conspiracy theorists.
What's precedent ever done for us?Wow, I missed a lot. Like wow. I got up early but that was to play Octopath Traveler and I completely missed everything until I opened Twitter a few hours later. On reflection, I don't regret that.
That being said, here are my thoughts.
- I hope Trump recovers to be beaten in the election fair and square, if he doesn't it's very likely that the Q Anon people and Fox will kick up a fuss about "deep state" nonsense. Based on his previous actions about the virus I am not surprised though
- I hope Biden and his wife are okay, it's good that Harris has already tested negative (also that Mc Connell has tested negative, because that would create all sorts of weird term time problems). I agree with the sentiment that the VP debate will probably be more interesting now
- I was watching Utopia (US) last night, and for how weird that show is I think 2020 has it beat in that department
So, let's hang an anchor from the sun... also my TumblrWhether or not COVID winds up killing Trump, I do hope he survives to the November election. Dying from COVID might actually improve his re-election chances.
I know that sounds weird, but if COVID kills Trump, then the GOP pivots to Pence. Mike Pence doesn't stir up excitement the way that Trump did but that doesn't matter 'cause Trump already stirred it up. All Trump's base needs to believe is that Pence will "carry on Trump's legacy and fulfill his agenda".
That's a psychosomatic goal. It's like low-info voters' understanding of economics. The economy is better when our guy is in and worse than their guy is in because that's what feels correct. Conservatives feel less anxious about the economy when a Republican is in power, and therefore Republicans improve the economy. It's tautological.
- Why do I think Republicans are good for the economy? Because the economy is better under Republicans.
- Why do I think the economy is better under Republicans? Because I feel less anxious about the economy when Republicans are in power.
- Why do I feel less anxious? Because Republicans are good for the economy.
"Trump's agenda" is much the same. You can support anything and it's Trump's agenda. His base will vote for you if you pay him that lip service. That's how cults of personality work. It's not really about doing the thing that Trump would do; it's about taking a moment to give props to Trump before doing the thing that you were going to do anyway. Once Trump is dead, his agenda can mean whatever you want it to mean. Republicans are used to this; they already do it with Reagan.
So in the hypothetical scenario that Trump dies of COVID in October, there is no question that Trump's base will vote for Pence to keep the Trump Agenda wheels rolling, even if none of them could actually explain to you what that agenda is and what they do wind up saying is contradicted by what everyone around them is saying.
But for the moderate voters, Republicans would be able to turn around and try and sell Pence as a non-Democratic return to normalcy. He's the good, honest, reasonable Conservative voice who loves God. He hates abortions and crime (and gays, but only if you see that as a positive, totes) and he conducts himself with the kind of professional decorum that SURE WAS MISSING IN THAT LAST DEBATE, SURELY THAT WASN'T ANY ONE PARTICULAR CANDIDATE'S FAULT.
If you were holding your nose and voting against Trump, then good news! Why vote for a baby-killing Satan-worshipping sodomite Democrat when you could vote for Mike Pence: The Adult in the Room, a return to normalcy but the Republican sense of normalcy that actually means Christian values leadership.
I can't say whether it would be enough especially this late in the game but anything that ticks the meter even one inch back to the right is bad.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Oct 2nd 2020 at 8:48:06 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
x4. Holy Mother Forking Shirtballs!
(Really big spoilers from The Good Place Season 1)
Edited by megaeliz on Oct 2nd 2020 at 12:11:50 PM
I think there could also be something of a dead candidate boost. We saw that in the Netherlands with LPF after its (populist) founder, Pim Fortuyn got assassinated, there were a lot of sympathy votes from people who might not otherwise have voted for him.
Edited by Redmess on Oct 2nd 2020 at 6:04:47 PM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest timesAt this point, it seems unlikely that a "dead candidate boost" would do much to help the GOP, especially given that, if Trump becomes severely ill or dies, the party's campaign apparatus will be effectively frozen for several weeks, during which Biden will be free to continue.
This is the worst possible time for such an event. Trump will be stuck in the White House or in a hospital, unable to rally his supporters in unmasked crowds.
The Republican Party is a cult of personality. All independent leadership has been broken and brought to heel under the absolute dicta of Trump's whims. Like any such organization, it falls into chaos when decapitated.
Edited by Fighteer on Oct 2nd 2020 at 12:09:41 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"I'm sure that's what you meant, but just in case. FTFY. (-:
For those of us who don't relish the prospect of another four years of Trump, the timing could hardly be better.
So. I've settled on thinking that this is bad news, on the basis that a major shift in the narrative of the campaign who's impact in not predictable in more likely to be a good thing for the Trump campaign than it is of the Biden campaign, because Biden needed things to stay stable for a month and Trump needed a major shake-up of some kind.
It is entirely possible that this shake-up won't end up benefitting the GOP. But maintaining the status quo certainly wouldn't have benefited them, and this gives them a chance to change things. Making your opponent all-in on the next hand is good thing for a losing poker player to do. The Biden campaign simply has more to lose right now than the Trump campaign does.
Joe and Jill Biden have tested negative for COVID.
Phew.
EDIT:
Edited by TyeDyeWildebeest on Oct 2nd 2020 at 12:26:41 PM
No beer?! But if there's no beer, then there's no beef or beans!@Gilphon -Trying to think of how to best phrase this, because I definitely don't think you are rooting for Trump and I want to be clear about that and also want to be better (be best?) in my posting generally.
With that said, I don't think it's helpful to think that any development is going to turn out positively for Trump and his campaign because it's a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. And in this case, I would think/hope it is unlikely to be good for Trump since he's been very open about his denialism towards the dangers of COVID.
I mean Trump seems to have the devil's luck, but coming down with a dangerous disease and the same disease spreading among his high-level supporters is not something that jumps out to me as good news for him.
As a corollary (stealing this from someone I follow on Twitter), yes, with this and anything else, it is Biden's race to lose. But that's because Biden is winning. The "Biden's race to lose" is a weird and common political analysis that elides this.
Edit - Glad to hear the news about the Bidens.
Edited by Hodor2 on Oct 2nd 2020 at 11:29:56 AM
I just hope he doesn't die before the election is over, let alone before it starts, because that could end up making him a martyr to the alt-right/Qanon. I an also worried it would just stoke conspiracies about Trump being assassinated, and would lay a bomb under the whole election.
The situation is already unstable enough without the centre of that instability suddenly dying. While I don't rule out that it could end up stabilizing things, I can't rule out the opposite either.
Hope shines brightest in the darkest times

This has a very Masque of the Red Death feel.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.