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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Clarste One Winged Egret Since: Jun, 2009 Relationship Status: Non-Canon
One Winged Egret
#328726: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:25:50 PM

I didn't get the impression that people had a problem with his specific numbers, it's more of a general "we can't trust any of these polls after what happened in 2016!" thing.

Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#328727: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:25:51 PM

This isn't 2016, not anywhere close. Trump can still win, but it's vanishly unlikely:

  • Biden repeatedly outperforms Clinton in polls
  • No Comey/emails scandal to ratfuck things
  • Trump is a reality, not a hypothetical and has been constantly loathed in office.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328728: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:27:15 PM

I'll take a wild guess that, under the hood, the baseline model 538 is using is basically just sampling from a lot of normal distributions. Possibly even several layers deep—I wouldn't be surprised if it's using an initial simulation with all these uncertainty terms etc. to determine the variance to use in the second set of simulations. And then go full Monte Carlo simulation on it with the weighted polling averages as the mean or something.

Well, that's a slightly more naive approach, the actual state-by-state races seem to be trying to work out the what contribution the polls should have to the accuracy and what can be ascribed to demographics or underlying factors, but there's no uncertainty specifically mentioned there so maybe it's introduced on the presidential race level...

All comes back to the central limit theorem anyhow and trying to work out appropriate variables for the variances.

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#328729: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:34:23 PM

Well, it's not October yet. There's still time for the GOP to cook up a harebrained nothingburger scandal against Biden and/or Harris.

For some reason, it feels like Nate Silver has been around for much longer in politics than eight years, because people talk about him constantly.

Edited by BearyScary on Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:34:37 AM

Do not obey in advance.
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328730: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:37:47 PM

[up] Senators Johnson and Grassley are already on it, investigating Burisma/Hunter Biden.

Edit: Meant to say they're trying but it's getting no traction.

Edited by nova92 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:40:41 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328731: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:39:05 PM

I think they released a report like... today? Yesterday?

Saying basically "Hunter Biden used Biden's name to secure deals, but Biden did nothing wrong". Which is maximum pointlessness.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#328732: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:40:20 PM

And, at worst, basically nothing we didn't already know

Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#328733: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:41:15 PM

Silver's honestly been around since 2008 in less of a full capacity, but he was pretty spot on for Obama versus McCain.

yeah, good luck with an October surprise here on Hunter Biden...nobody cares and Trump got himself impeached over that. Maybe he doesn't wanna remind people of that.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#328734: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:48:55 PM

It was today. Nobody but the New York Post cared.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328735: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:50:40 PM

The Hill has regular updates which is how I knew about it, but all it's done is show how much of a clown Ron Johnson is.


Edit: Missouri's Governor Parson has tested positive for COVID. I think he's the second governor to get it.

Edited by nova92 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:52:24 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#328736: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:52:25 PM

If they want to find something that can stick to Biden, they're running out of time. It was going to be an uphill battle anyway since Biden is generally well-liked or at least not seen overly negatively. The main reason the emails thing stuck with Hillary is because there was a lot of groundwork for people distrusting her to begin with, with the decades long hate campaign against her, which is not the case with Biden at all.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328737: Sep 23rd 2020 at 9:59:08 PM

Florida Republicans continue to be the worst. Politico: Florida AG calls for criminal inquiry into Bloomberg's $16M felon voter donation

Florida's Republican attorney general on Wednesday urged the FBI and state authorities to investigate former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg's pledge to spend $16 million helping convicted felons regain their voting rights in the nation's largest swing state.

The attorney general, Ashley Moody, said in a letter to top law enforcement officials that she was asked by Gov. Ron DeSantis, another Republican, to review the donation Bloomberg announced on Tuesday. Moody said she quickly decided additional scrutiny was warranted.

These people...

Quick question: can Congress pass a bill outlawing felony disenfranchisement? Or is it up to the states?

Edited by nova92 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:17:26 AM

Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#328738: Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:17:22 PM

The problem is 'disenfranchisement' is a very, very broad term, and stacked courts have ruled in florida's favor on that damned poll tax.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#328739: Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:33:18 PM

If you say people can't vote until their debts are paid and then object to their debts being paid, you confirm that your true purpose was to prevent voting rather than to collect debt.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328740: Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:35:10 PM

[up] It was always evident it was about preventing people from voting rather than paying debt/fines/restitution. The state of Florida doesn't even know how much, if anything, a good number of people owe.


[up][up] Yeah, I wouldn't trust the Roberts court (even before Trump's third Justice) to do the right thing on voting rights.

Edited by nova92 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:36:00 AM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#328741: Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:39:58 PM

[up][up]And then also state the state has no obligation to help anyone find out how much they owe, if I'm remembering correctly.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328742: Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:42:47 PM

[up] That was the 11th Circuit Court, and it was one of the most baffling things about their decision.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#328743: Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:53:23 PM

Florida AG calls for criminal inquiry into Bloomberg's $16M felon voter donation

Figures - one of the few times a billionaire tries to do some good with his money and he gets a criminal inquiry.

Edited by M84 on Sep 24th 2020 at 1:53:34 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#328744: Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:56:45 PM

Silver is good when he sticks to reporting the data. As he himself has admitted, when he moves away from the math, he's no more reliable than any other self-appointed oracle.

@Beary Scary: Viewers Are Goldfish. Eight years is a lifetime in politics.

That said, now we really have a reason to vote if we haven't already. *socially-distanced fistbump*

Resileafs I actually wanted to be Resileaf Since: Jan, 2019
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
#328745: Sep 23rd 2020 at 11:12:57 PM

[up][up]There's like, zero chance this inquiry leads anywhere. There is no law against helping felons pay their fines.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328746: Sep 23rd 2020 at 11:14:05 PM

They're trying to frame it as giving money directly to voters.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#328748: Sep 23rd 2020 at 11:19:27 PM

It's kind of like how the GOP is having trouble getting anything to stick to Biden because he's an old white guy.

Disgusted, but not surprised
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328749: Sep 23rd 2020 at 11:30:59 PM

And also Biden, which means his public perception was "eight years of being that nice old uncle".

Lazlo74 from A tropical hell-hole Since: May, 2018
#328750: Sep 23rd 2020 at 11:45:51 PM

For all of Joe Biden's opposition's insistence that he's a senile geriatric or "demoCRAP" puppet who supposedly had unfortunate run-ins with some women in the past, nothing really came of it. Disturbingly enough, I've met more than a few unpleasant people across the net who actually believes all of these suspiciously convenient rumors that only started circulating when he got nominated as candidate. But let's not get any further into that, as I don't want to point out the GOP followers' cultish behavior in this thread for the 9001th time.

Edited by Lazlo74 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 11:54:52 AM

Scaled seeker

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