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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#328676: Sep 23rd 2020 at 6:59:23 PM

Calling Electoral College games a coup feels like unnecessary hyperbole on the part of Vanity Fair, especially considering that the Atlantic article they’re using as a source frames this question more in the context of what this challenge means for the machinery of democracy going forward rather than some sort of “Trump might take over the country” BS.

They should have sent a poet.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#328677: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:03:43 PM

You don’t consider certifying false electors in direct contradiction of the state’s voters to be a coup?

This isn’t a Florida 2000 scenario being proposed, it’s a 1876 scenario.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#328678: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:18:07 PM

If electors had voted against Trump despite the votes of the Republican party, that would have been the way the system was intended.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#328679: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:22:54 PM

It wouldn’t and you know we shouldn’t have this argument again.

NBC are now reporting that Trump has refused to commit to a peaceful transferable of power.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Codafett Knows-Many-Things Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Waiting for you *wink*
Knows-Many-Things
#328680: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:24:08 PM

@Redmess Trump starting a war would be very counter-productive. Going by the reaction all the Iran drama early this year, that would be unfathomably unpopular. Besides, it's abundantly clear that he has no interest in actually being involved in that kind of mess.

Right now, he's just interested in playing stratego with protesters.

Just Having Fun
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#328681: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:27:33 PM

I'm currently not worried about State Governments attempting to pick Electors that only care about the Republican Party; it'd require too many States to effectively pull off. The most important things to focus on right now are the Supreme Court fight and Nov. 3rd.

Supreme Court isn't a fight. Trump is going to select his nominee and the Republican Senate will approve them, and not a single Democrat has any ability to do anything to stop it. Don't go into that thinking it's a fight, or you're just setting yourself up for a crushing emotional defeat when the unstoppable inevitable occurs.

The important thing to focus on right now is November 3rd, period. The only thing anyone can do right now about the Supreme Court is brace for impact.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:30:29 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#328682: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:30:55 PM

You know, I was just about to link to that Vanity Fair article, but then I saw that someone else had. But my question still remains— do you think the worst-case scenario they outline is a likely one?

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328683: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:32:47 PM

[up][up] It's a fight fought with the purpose of making a big deal out of it, not of winning.

MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#328684: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:38:28 PM

Can I ask a dumb question:

With over a month until the election, just because Trump is slightly leading in a few states, that's no reason to panic, right? It's still too early to tell?

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#328685: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:39:27 PM

[up]x4 And for the Democrats to get ready to drag the court back into our favor. That should include not only adding a Justice or two, but also removing Clarence Thomas due to the actions of his wife from earlier this year trying to get Trump to purge the White House of dissenters (no way in hell Thomas didn't know). Basically, start punishing the conservative Justices for stepping outside their bounds.

Edited by ScubaWolf on Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:39:37 AM

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#328686: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:41:08 PM

Polling only has Trump leading in either safe Republican states (some of which aren’t looking so safe right now) or swing states that lean heavily republican.

The polling is looking good for Biden, it’s a reason to feel confident, not break out.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#328687: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:42:15 PM

Biden can lose and things could go wrong but most of the data we have does not suggest trump's chances are good, they are actually notably worse than they were in 2016.

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#328688: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:42:48 PM

[up]x3 I would also argue actually investigating the Sexual Assault allegations that Clarence and Kavanaugh have.

Edited by DingoWalley1 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 10:43:01 AM

PresidentStalkeyes Eats moldy bread and flies into windows from United Kingdom of England-land Since: Feb, 2016 Relationship Status: Do you like me? (Yes ⎕ Definitely ⎕ Absolutely!!! ⎕)
Eats moldy bread and flies into windows
#328689: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:48:17 PM

If the GOP tried to subvert a lost election after the verdict came in, I'd honestly be surprised if there wasn't a mass uprising of some kind. Trump is simply not popular enough to carry himself through something like that; as has been established countless times, his actual would-cheer-him-on-as-he-starts-a-civil-war base is a minority. If they weren't, his re-election would be a foregone conclusion.

I think the GOP knows this, deep down, and most of this hoo-hah they've been making over subverting the election is empty threats and bluster designed to intimidate or de-motivate blue voters into not showing up to the polls (in person or otherwise). Though from Trump in particular, who knows what he knows. It's a toss-up as to whether or not he's actually in on this or he's just pushing his 'tough guy who never loses' image to feed his base (and ego).

Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328690: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:51:04 PM

With over a month until the election, just because Trump is slightly leading in a few states, that's no reason to panic, right? It's still too early to tell?

Which states is Trump leading in? And please don't cite a single poll, because variance is a thing.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#328691: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:53:26 PM

That may well be the best defence against any elector shenanigans, massive public protests demanding the result be respected and carrying the implicit threat of direct action against anyone who tried to ignore that result.

Republican state-level Reps might be willing to loose their jobs for Trump, but if they’d have to risk their personal safety? That’s probably be a bridge to far.

[up] Just to note I just checked 538, the closest to swing states that Trump leads in are Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Texas.

Edited by Silasw on Sep 23rd 2020 at 2:54:52 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#328692: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:55:19 PM

I'm sure he's leading in Arkansas. tongue

More seriously, the answer to "Is now a good time to panic?" is no. It was no last time someone asked, and the time before that, and will be the next time someone asks. Panic doesn't do anything useful. Why would you want an excuse to panic?

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#328693: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:58:30 PM

The fact that Georgia and Texas are even considered somewhat swingy is a good sign, in itself, no?

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#328694: Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:00:57 PM

An insanely good sign, they’re an entire order of magnitude more Republican than the Republican leaning states that Trump must win to even have a chance (Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina for anyone curious).

Edited by Silasw on Sep 23rd 2020 at 3:01:24 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#328695: Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:04:30 PM

I keep hearing this poll or that poll are unreliable. Are there any that are considered accurate enough to be trusted?

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328696: Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:04:32 PM

[up][up][up][up] [awesome][awesome][awesome]

Yeah, Ohio, Texas, Georgia and Iowa are closer for Biden than any of the 6 major swing states for Trump.


[up] Look at the averages because even reliable polls by trustworthy pollsters have margins of error.

If you, or anyone else, are looking for a pollster that will be 100% accurate, that's not polling, that's magic. Real world scenarios have some degree of uncertainty, which is why it's not impossible that Trump wins. Of course at this poiint, it is highly implausible.

Edited by nova92 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:10:56 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328697: Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:09:40 PM

As I said, bizarrely 538 predicts the single most likely outcome (others are close) to be Texas going blue. There are of course a more likely range of outcomes where Texas doesn't, but due to correlations the most likely peak would involve Texas flipping.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#328698: Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:11:14 PM

Don’t look at singular polls, 538 have polling averages (they also have predicted vote amounts that are partly based on the polls), Real Clear Politics have a polling average (though they don’t adjust for pollster bias), look at one of them.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Alycus Since: Apr, 2018
#328699: Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:12:57 PM

To perhaps make it a bit more assuring, it could help to look at which states Biden can afford to lose. I recall one scenario on 538 shows that if Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania plus all states Clinton won in 2016, he gets 270 electoral votes, and it won't matter if he loses Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Unfortunately I can't check now as 538's list of outcomes on a map isn't displayable on mobile.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328700: Sep 23rd 2020 at 8:14:24 PM

Election forecast. In the broad sense, the tall clusters in the top section (the 77/100) thing show the more likely specific outcomes and you can hover over them to see the state map. If you scroll down to see the rolling average thing, you can see the peaks in predicted Electoral Votes as various states flip one way or another.


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