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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#328576: Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:31:29 PM

My problem with Silver...his model this time is just bizarre. He's factoring in polls that are good for Biden to lower the average because "uncertainty" and taking into account the size of New York Times headlines. 2012 Nate Silver, I think, would be stunned by 2020 Silver when he used to be the guy who just took the polling averages and that was that.

I think the Dems might overperform a bit here. Certainly don't underestimate the rage Democrats might have towards this Supreme court play after Garland.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328577: Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:37:21 PM

[up] There's going to be a huge skew in early voting/voting by mail towards democrats in this election based on current polls, and that's the area of our election infrastructure that's in danger of buckling. If nonstandard voting for the general election turns out as poorly as it has in other elections during the pandemic, it could be really, really close.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328578: Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:45:57 PM

[up][up] The thing is, 2012 Nate Silver is the guy who had mostly focused on sports, where the available statistics do well describe the problem domain.

Moving into full political analysis introduces you to all sorts of problems with unrepresentative sampling and external factors that aren't captured by polling. Hence moving to a simulation approach which allows for uncertainty.

It's annoying, I suppose, the polls-only description of the presidential race isn't provided, but we can compare with the Senate forecast to get a gist of how hesitant it is.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#328579: Sep 23rd 2020 at 12:22:35 AM

Pelosi would only by interim president if I'm not mistaken,

You are, there’s no such thing as interim president (outside of a president temporarily surrendering the powers of the office by choice, such as when they have surgery). If the speaker becomes president than that’s it, they’re president until either they resign or the next election.

The entire scenario is incredibly out there anyway, it requires the election to be close enough that Republicans can pull a Florida 2000, which required not just a favourable Supreme Court ruling but also a Republican Governor in the relevant swing state (who in 2000 happened to be the brother of the Republican presidential candidate).

The biggest defence against a repeat of Florida 2000 is the fact that Dems control the governorships in the mid-west.

Edited by Silasw on Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:23:23 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#328580: Sep 23rd 2020 at 1:28:27 AM

You are, there’s no such thing as interim president (outside of a president temporarily surrendering the powers of the office by choice, such as when they have surgery). If the speaker becomes president than that’s it, they’re president until either they resign or the next election.

This is wrong. The Presidential Succession Act specifically mentions anyone outside of the vice president ascending to the role of president is only in an "acting" role until the next president is elected in a special election.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#328581: Sep 23rd 2020 at 1:53:07 AM

Here's Wikipedia's entry on it:

Wikipedia: Acting president of the United States

Disgusted, but not surprised
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328582: Sep 23rd 2020 at 4:09:43 AM

So Sen. Lisa Murkowski (AK) walked back her earlier statement, says she can't rule out voting for Trump's Supreme Court pick

Edited by nova92 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 4:27:05 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#328583: Sep 23rd 2020 at 4:29:25 AM

So in the case of a SC tie, who gets to break the tie?

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328584: Sep 23rd 2020 at 4:34:32 AM

[up] I'm fairly certain it becomes "no decision" and the ruling of the lower court is followed.

RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#328585: Sep 23rd 2020 at 4:56:44 AM

Say it with me now: Murkowski is a coward. Especially now with Romney and, I think, Collins on board, she's shifted her tune from "Hmm, I dunno, maybe I won't" to "Hmm, I dunno, maybe I will" to see which gives her more support now that she's not in danger of actually making a difference.

It's been fun.
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328586: Sep 23rd 2020 at 4:58:17 AM

[up] Susan Collins has said she'll vote "no", not that it'll stop a nominee. There's still time for her to change her mind, though.

Edited by nova92 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 4:58:34 AM

Shaoken (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Dating Catwoman
#328587: Sep 23rd 2020 at 5:00:38 AM

So in the case of a SC tie, who gets to break the tie?

The court has an odd number to stop this from occuring, but whenever there is an even number of justices (like now when one has died, or if in a certain case one of the justices recuses themselves due to conflict of interest) and there's a tie then it counts as affirming the lower court's decision.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#328588: Sep 23rd 2020 at 5:10:32 AM

Blogger who trashed Fauci online “retires” after being ID’d as NIH staffer: Directly contradicting your agency and calling your boss names is a bad look.

So to get this straight, this guy working at the NIH as a public affairs officer moonlighted as a conservative blogger, accusing his own company and colleagues being part of a left wing anti-Trump conspiracy. And since he is in charge of public affairs, he would be the one promoting that "conspiratorial message". Talk about working both sides...

Edited by Redmess on Sep 23rd 2020 at 2:12:28 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
ShadowWingLG Since: Dec, 2013
#328589: Sep 23rd 2020 at 5:15:39 AM

The only 'hope' (and its a faint one) is that the Anti-Trump Republicans in the Senate have given up on stopping the Turtle from holding the vote before the election, he's going to call for it, he's the Majority Leader and has that power. But they can still either abstain from voting or vote 'no'

Which leads to the question, can they try again with the same person or once the Senate declines to confirm or that's it no do-overs, they need to start over with the next name on the list?

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#328590: Sep 23rd 2020 at 5:21:16 AM

Facebook vows to restrict users if US election descends into chaos: Head of global affairs says Facebook could take exceptional measures.

“We have acted aggressively in other parts of the world where we think that there is real civic instability and we obviously have the tools to do that [again],” Mr Clegg added, citing the previous use of “pretty exceptional measures to significantly restrict the circulation of content on our platform.”

Facebook is giving the US the same treatment as various unstable and corrupt democracies around the world, in other words.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328591: Sep 23rd 2020 at 5:31:02 AM

[up] I'll believe it when I see it. Facebook's will to actually combat misinformation this election has been nil and their efforts have been pretty worthless.


The only 'hope' (and its a faint one) is that the Anti-Trump Republicans in the Senate have given up on stopping the Turtle from holding the vote before the election, he's going to call for it, he's the Majority Leader and has that power. But they can still either abstain from voting or vote 'no'

It might have been possible if some of them hadn't said anything and tried to slip under the radar or something, but all but 4 Senators have come out in favor of the nomination, and none of them are what I'd consider Anti-Trump.

I'd imagine it's never come up before, trying to reconfirm a justice that's already been rejected, so don't know what'll happen there.


The Hill: Democrats shoot down talk of expanding Supreme Court

The title's a bit misleading though, the only one who's really come out against it is Dianne Feinstein (CA). Almost everyone else cited seems to think that the talk should wait until after the election.

Edited by nova92 on Sep 23rd 2020 at 5:36:09 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#328592: Sep 23rd 2020 at 5:39:52 AM

Clearly the Dems are not quite willing to commit to this idea yet. They probably want to see how this plays out first before making rash political commitments.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Shaoken (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Dating Catwoman
#328593: Sep 23rd 2020 at 5:42:08 AM

At this point the best hope we have is that Trump goes off script from the Evil Turtle and picks someone the Senate Republicans can't stomach. Although given that he's been handed a list of names and his historic laziness he probably won't get the chance to throw a curve ball.

SKJAM Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Baby don't hurt me!
#328594: Sep 23rd 2020 at 6:08:08 AM

I'd imagine it's never come up before, trying to reconfirm a justice that's already been rejected, so don't know what'll happen there.

It has! Roger Taney was originally rejected by the Senate as the opposition party was in control and he'd participated in an attack on the National Bank they didn't like. After the next election, another opening came up, and he was re-nominated. As the new Senate was more amenable to the president, Taney was confirmed. (We now know Taney best for Dred Scott but he had a long career in the Supreme Court with many sound decisions as well.)

ShadowWingLG Since: Dec, 2013
#328595: Sep 23rd 2020 at 6:39:17 AM

So basically if Trump's pick gets rejected he can't get them through again until after the election and the new Senate is sworn in. He'll need to wait until he gets re-elected and until the Senate is in place then he can try again.

Or he moves down the list to the next name, wash/rinse/repeat until the election.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#328596: Sep 23rd 2020 at 6:55:45 AM

Not necessarily, I think, but practically speaking, I don't think he would have the time to push through a second candidate. It's about five weeks until the election. It's this candidate, or no candidate, basically.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#328597: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:01:23 AM

And Senate's going on Recess on the 6th(?) of October to Campaign

"You can reply to this Message!"
ShadowWingLG Since: Dec, 2013
#328598: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:14:23 AM

How much you wanna bet Mitch will try to force them to stay? And this is on top of the budget that's due...next week?!

Bur from Flyover Country (Living Relic) Relationship Status: Having tea with Cthulhu
#328599: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:15:35 AM

And the Senate still hasn’t passed anything for Covid relief, right?

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#328600: Sep 23rd 2020 at 7:19:26 AM

Right,it was a Republican backed Corvid relief bill too that the senate killed

Edited by Ultimatum on Sep 23rd 2020 at 2:22:05 PM

have a listen and have a link to my discord server

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