TVTropes Now available in the app store!
Open

Follow TV Tropes

Following

The General US Politics Thread

Go To

Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.

Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.

If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules when posting here.


In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
MrHellboy The Shadow from A world of my own Since: Dec, 2017 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
The Shadow
#328552: Sep 22nd 2020 at 6:55:40 PM

I mean, neither Gorsuch nor Kavanaugh turned out to be the absolute nightmares everyone was expecting.

But then again, Amy Coney Barrett is a legitimate religious cult member. So... who knows?

Edited by MrHellboy on Sep 22nd 2020 at 8:55:59 AM

The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#328553: Sep 22nd 2020 at 6:59:06 PM

which whether he believes it sincerely or not is a dumb statement. I don't really think there is a way to de-escalate things.

Actually it's the smart thing to say right now. Biden won the primaries on not being radical, and has campaigned on moving to the left because of circumstances. If we are going to nuke the filibuster and rebalance the court, then Biden appealing to Republicans is a good move because voters expect him to be the moderate calling for sanity and order. When the Republicans make their power grab anyway, it gives Biden the weight of public opinion because he offered the olive branch and the Republicans smacked it away, so he's justified in whatever radical action they forced him to take afterwards.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328554: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:26:00 PM

[up][up] Both of them were more than willing to make a decision which would have essentially invalidated large swaths of Roe vs Wade. The only thing that prevented that was Chief Justice Roberts' respect for legal precedent. With a 6-3 conservative majority the odds of a reversal of part or all of Roe vs Wade, strike down the ACA, or achieve other items on the GOP agenda are much higher.


@Redmess: The concern is not that the supreme court would rubber stamp a blatant coup by Trump, however a scenario where election results end up being litigated in a manner similar to the 2000 presidential elections to the extent that there's no official winner a week after election day is...Frankly quite likely. At some point the supreme court may be called upon to make a judgement call about a number of close elections where a legal dispute over vote counting would decide the outcome. One of the scenarios that the Electoral Integrity Project imagined involved a bunch of mail in votes being destroyed by a "Lone Wolf" in a tipping point state in the middle of a recount. Quite a few cases of that nature could end up going to the supreme court and be subject to 5-4 rulings that favor the GOP. The 2020 elections are going to be a shitshow, and I'll be surprised if there isn't widespread electoral violence in the US during or after the elections of the sort that hasn't occurred in the US since the end of reconstruction which could provide further cover for ballots to be "lost".


The last time something like this happened, it required a Faustian deal be struck that put an end to reconstruction for the contested election to be resolved. I neither can nor want to picture a modern equivalent of the 1876 compromise, but it seems terrifyingly likely to me.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:40:30 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328555: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:37:55 PM

If you want one bit of odd electoral levity, the 538 model considers Biden winning by a nearly 500 EV margin more likely than Trump getting a +200 EV margin.

The single most likely outcome appears to be somewhere in the +300 range. Pretty odd.

Edited by RainehDaze on Sep 22nd 2020 at 3:38:48 PM

Voltron64 Since: Jul, 2016
#328556: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:38:18 PM

[up][up][up][up]

Gorsuch, no. It turned out he takes his duties with some degree of intellectual seriousness.

Kavanaugh, on the other hand isn't looking too great IMO.

It's a shame Kavanaugh's and Gorsuch's appointments weren't reversed. It'd be great if Cirrhosis the Wonder Judge had been forced onto the Court under dubious circumstances and Gorsuch had had a "normal" appointment, rather than the other way around.

Edited by Voltron64 on Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:39:19 AM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328557: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:47:00 PM

[up][up] I'm most worried about the election infrastructure, the elections we've had thus far in the pandemic were clear warnings that what we have isn't up to the task. Systemic undercounting of early voting/mail in ballots would almost certainly favor Trump*, and could happen out of sheer incompetence, and Trump's already survived impeachment once, I don't doubt he thinks he can do it again if it lets him get another 4 years.

* https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-record-number-of-black-americans-could-vote-early-this-year/

Polls show that Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say they’ll vote early, sometimes by as much as 31 points. This means it’s not only likely that there will be a partisan split in ballots cast this year, but we might also see a change in voting behavior among many non-white voters, since they are much more Democratic-leaning than white voters.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:53:21 AM

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#328558: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:49:42 PM

The most fascinating for its utter disingenuousness argument for appointing a Supreme Court Justice I've seen from Senate Republicans (& Pence) is that the Presidential election might be litigated in the courts and an 8-justice court could end up tied.

So the election might be decided by a tied court so we must appoint one of our guys to break the tie. WTF?

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328559: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:51:46 PM

[up] Credit for the honesty. The Trump campaign I think has already given up outright winning on election night, and already is looking ahead to fighting the results in court.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#328560: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:56:42 PM

That prompts me to ask if a landslide victory in Biden's favor would make a court case more likely or less?

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#328561: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:57:04 PM

however a scenario where election results end up being litigated in a manner similar to the 2000 presidential elections to the extent that there's no official winner a week after election day is...Frankly quite likely

Also, it's not a problem, because Nancy Pelosi would become Acting President until the clusterfuck sorted itself out.

No need for an 1876 compromise when the other side has no room to negotiate.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328562: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:59:09 PM

[up] That in and of itself would be challenged in court.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328563: Sep 22nd 2020 at 7:59:39 PM

[up][up][up] Less. There's less wiggle room if they need to overturn multiple states.

If it looks like Biden's taken Texas, for instance (which is why I think there's a big spike to the right of the 538 graph around the +300 EV area), there's no point. Because the implications that has for the rest of the map is enormous.

[up] It can't be challenged because it's also a nonsense scenario. Pelosi would only take over if no president was seated in time next year.

Edited by RainehDaze on Sep 22nd 2020 at 4:00:41 PM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#328564: Sep 22nd 2020 at 8:00:06 PM

Regardless of whether Biden was or wasn't sincere about asking Republican senators to "listen to their conscience" it goes back what I was thinking about earlier: rushing a conservative justice would be voting their conscience for them, because like their voters, they probably do genuinely consider pushing through their agenda by any means necessary the morally correct thing to do.

They're wrong just like they're wrong they're about the righteousness of their positions on everything else, but that doesn't mean they're not sincere.

Edited by LSBK on Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:00:36 AM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328565: Sep 22nd 2020 at 8:05:06 PM

[up][up] You're talking about a purely theoretical provision about presidential succession that has never actually happened in practice; a fiercely contested election scenario where the theoretical new president has zero electoral legitimacy is the precise kind of situation where rule of law breaks down and the rule of whoever the army decides they're taking orders from takes hold, and if that looks at all possible the supreme court may end up player arbitrator and kingmaker.

If it's a landslide then sure, but there's a lot of warning signs that the electoral infrastructure isn't up to the task of voting during the pandemic, and that this is going to heavily disadvantage the counting of minority voters.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 22nd 2020 at 11:07:16 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328566: Sep 22nd 2020 at 8:09:04 PM

They were specifically talking about a week after election day.

When, you know, inauguration isn't until next year.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#328567: Sep 22nd 2020 at 8:10:04 PM

Misread. I thought it was "litigated into January." Which is theoretically possible but, as I said, a nothingburger if it happens.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328568: Sep 22nd 2020 at 8:21:32 PM

[up] It really isn't. Pelosi would only by interim president if I'm not mistaken, and even if that isn't challenged* it only fixes the problem of Trump theoretically being able to call out the national guard rather than being a automatic escape from the disputed election. Whenever it was resolved one way or another she'd be expected to step down in favor of the legal winner of the election, even if it was Trump/Pence.

* And well, when 5/9 of the justices are originalists there's the shape of a case I can see where they'd argue that the intent of the succession act was to account for death or disability of the president and other high officials, not for the eventuality of an election where there was no agreed upon winner. That of course would mean its either a compromise or a constitutional crisis.

Edit:

Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a president elect nor a vice president elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as president, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a president or vice president shall have qualified.

The text of the 20th ammendment actually suggests that it would be up to congress to figure out who acts as interim president in this scenario, and there's an existing legalistic basis to challenge the constitutionality of the succession act in fulfilling that clause.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 22nd 2020 at 12:15:08 PM

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#328569: Sep 22nd 2020 at 8:54:10 PM

[up] So actually reading this Article, Trump, nor anyone else who has ever been impeached, can't be barred from the Presidency, just from any other Government Position that is under the Presidency? That to me sounds like a very ludicrous, twisty-turvy way of reading the Constitution... But knowing the Originalists, I would not doubt it's a viable way to read it.

Also, if we did get in a situation where Pelosi somehow ends up as President because of Election Shenanigans, and has to run against Trump, I think Pelosi would instead surrender the Speakership to Biden (as the Speaker technically does not have to be elected to Congress), and allow Biden to become President proper.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328570: Sep 22nd 2020 at 9:07:08 PM

[up] My key point from that article was the part where they mentioned the legalistic basis for challenging the succession act due to some wording in the constitution about "officers" being ineligible. If nothing else that's a sword of Damocles that a supreme court with an originalist majority and an agenda could hold over the country to extract concessions, since as I said, were they to strike it down the only alternatives are either congress figuring something out as per the 20th amendment, or a constitutional crisis where there's no legitimate president on inauguration day.


Ultimately, the most likely sticking point I anticipate even in the case of a landslide will be the prospect of Trump administration officials facing potential criminal charges after leaving office. Considering how many ex-Trump officials have already faced criminal charges, we many only be seeing the tip of the iceberg when it comes to misconduct by Trump admin officials. A very plausible demand would be sweeping pardons in exchange for leaving quietly, the same deal that Nixon got.


I'm not actually sure it would be wise to say no to that. Yes, it would be a miscarriage of justice, but at the same time, depending on how widespread things are it might not be Trump but a large number of officials he's appointed who would be over the proverbial Rubicon with nothing to lose by going all in on a power grab.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 22nd 2020 at 12:17:17 PM

astrokitty Happiness is a cup of tea from Somewhere Out There Since: May, 2014 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
Happiness is a cup of tea
#328571: Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:05:20 PM

The sooner this nightmare of a presidency is over, the better.

Somebody once told me the world was macaroni, I took a bite out of a tree
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#328573: Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:21:08 PM

We shouldn't overreact: Trump is likely to lose, throw a tantrum, but at the end of the day, Biden will be the President. The Democrats are likely to take the Senate. Eyes on the ball.

The question is "what then?" A 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court won't let Democrats govern. The filibuster need to die, the court needs to be expanded. This is bad, to say the least, but we need to think what happens after.

I'll never let it go, though. all this. All this over a goddamned email server the media was giggling over in 2016. The ludicrously frivolous media coverage of the campaign will enrage me eternally. Just imagine if Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina flipped in 2016. We were so close to having a median liberal SC

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#328574: Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:28:42 PM

It's an interesting thing to think about, because the 538 headline just focuses on the probability over simulations.

But the individual peaks in how close the race looks like it's going to be are... interesting? The first peak is at a +50 vote margin to Biden. I think. I wish that they'd set it so that you could turn the rolling average graph thing into a +/- EV margin view rather than an absolute value. But the balance of probabilities seem to be either "it's going to be close" or (and far more of the peaks are rightward) "it's a landslide for the presidency".

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#328575: Sep 22nd 2020 at 10:31:21 PM

[up][up] He will if it's a clear landslide and relatively few irregularities in voting that create plausible cases to dispute key elections. The landslide is reasonably likely, but so are the voting irregularities, almost all of the elections that have been held during the pandemic have been disasters, and the general election is shaping up to be even worse. My other major concern is just how many people in the Trump administration are at risk of facing legal consequences for misconduct or complicity in misconduct. Based on the sheer number of ex-officials who have faced charges, the number could be quite high, enough that Trump and his family could be far from the only people desperate to stay in power.


I think Biden will be President come February 2021, but I wonder at what cost that victory will have come?

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 22nd 2020 at 1:31:40 PM


Total posts: 417,856
Top