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Fighteer MOD Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#327726: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:19:45 PM

Alright, I'm going to bed. Let's give this another shot. You all have been warned. If I wake up and it's another ten pages of doomsaying, back goes the lock.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#327727: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:20:45 PM

Well then...

I'll be very interested to see what the opinion polls have to say about appointing a new justice in these circumstances. And about court packing, for that matter.

Oh God! Natural light!
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#327728: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:22:56 PM

Also, in the intervening few hours, McConnell did exactly what everyone expected and announced that they would be confirming via a floor vote any Trump nominee. Because waiting for the body to even get cold is too much tact to ask, let alone pretending that that deceased had any dying wishes.

RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#327729: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:26:18 PM

Of course he would. McConnell is why I want to believe there's a Hell.

It's been fun.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#327730: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:27:09 PM

So, to my knowledge, four republican senators have said they do not intend to vote on this before election day. Which is enough. The wording of that of course doesn't preclude the possibility of voting on it in December, but voting in a Trump appointee after the Trump loss would be short-sighted move; it would be inviting reprisal.

And it doesn't actually serve the GOP's interest to force it through before election day; if a SCOTUS seat is at stake, the election isn't as much of a referendum on Trump, and then Trump's low 40s approval rating isn't their ceiling anymore. They have a majority on the court either way, there's no need for them to squander that advantage.

And people like Collins are dead meat in they vote in somebody who's even slightly objectionable.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#327731: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:27:41 PM

It is certainly big news, it even made the Dutch late night news on the radio here.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Shaoken (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Dating Catwoman
#327732: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:28:53 PM

For those curious, he's making the argument that because the Senate is held by the same party as the President it's a completely different situation to 2016 and so his comments then don't apply.

A random thought, let's say that Ted Cruz is nominated for the role, and he's currently a sitting Senator, is he allowed to vote on his own confirmation? I would assume not but I also have no idea if that's actually something that there's a rule for.

Also to answer a question I was in the middle of writing a response to when the thread was locked, there are 14 sitting days on the schedule between the election and the end of the year, and presumably more between the start of the next year and swearing in the President.

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#327733: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:28:59 PM

So these are the Republicans who I'm hearing are not willing to vote until at least November, but I can't officially confirm:

  • Mitt Romney (Utah)
  • Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
  • Lamar Alexander (Tennessee)
  • Susan Collins (Maine)
  • Chuck Grassley (Iowa)
  • Rob Portman (Ohio)
  • Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)

Alexander is the most surprising name on this list. I guess we'll know sooner or later if these rumors are true, but if they are true, then I think we might be safe, so long as Trump isn't re-elected.

There is also one good thing: Let's say that all of these guys are just holding out until November and most of them plan to use the Lame Duck to try to push someone through. The good news is that the Arizona Senate Election is actually a Special Election, and as such, the winner would be put in immediately. Since Mark Kelly (D) is most likely going to crush Martha McSally (R), Kelly will be sworn in on Nov. 30th and we'd only need 3 of these Senators to keep them from pushing a Judge.

Edited by DingoWalley1 on Sep 18th 2020 at 11:35:08 AM

KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#327734: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:31:10 PM

Assuming, of course, that this isn't merely a chance to save face during the election, and they're actually just planning to push someone through no matter who wins in November.

Regardless, I'll imagine we'll develop a somewhat clearer picture on where everyone stands tomorrow.

Edited by KarkatTheDalek on Sep 18th 2020 at 11:31:43 AM

Oh God! Natural light!
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#327735: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:32:01 PM

The question is how willing they are to play the long game and call the Dems' bluff.

If they think it might be an election that can be successfully contested in the courts: they'd want to pack it before the election.

If they think the Dems won't dare pack the courts: after the election. The electoral advantage could be in either of these two.

If they are wanting to avoid court packing: take the current majority and leave it vacant.

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#327736: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:32:46 PM

[up][up]In that scenario, they would lose enough face after the election that court packing in response would become political viable. It would be a very short-sighted move.

Edited by Gilphon on Sep 18th 2020 at 11:33:11 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#327737: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:33:33 PM

I wonder if they're hoping to make a deal not confirm anybody until after the election. If Trump wins then what's a few months delay. If Biden wins they can offer to let him pick the next justice in exchange for not nuking the filibuster.

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#327738: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:36:41 PM

In terms of actual court-packing, is it "add enough justices to make the Court majority liberal" (presumably 7-6, so increase the Court to 13) or would making it 6-5 conservative (increase the Court to 11) to put the thing back to where it was before this latest mess started be offer-able in exchange for, I dunno, revitalizing the Voting Rights Act or something?

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#327739: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:38:14 PM

Romney's comms person said the news was fake. He hasn't said anything about how he'll vote.

Murkowski's statement was from right before RGB died. Nothing new after AFAIK.

Martha McSally, Kelly Loeffler, Rick Scott have all said they'll vote for the nominee

And Joni Ernst, the utter ghoul, is fundraising off RGB's death.

Edited by nova92 on Sep 18th 2020 at 8:44:29 AM

Clarste One Winged Egret Since: Jun, 2009 Relationship Status: Non-Canon
One Winged Egret
#327740: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:41:08 PM

[up][up]Exchange how? The current GOP doesn't believe in compromise, they believe in being stubborn and holding things hostage until the Democrats have to compromise with them.

Edited by Clarste on Sep 18th 2020 at 8:41:42 AM

RedSavant Since: Jan, 2001
#327741: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:41:24 PM

Murkowski and Collins are cowards. Saying they might not vote for a thing and then voting for it anyway is something they've both done in the past.

Relying on the goodness of Republicans' hearts will get us nowhere, which is why it sucks so hard that that's the position we're in now.

It's been fun.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#327742: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:42:54 PM

It's not the good of their hearts we should be relying on, it's the notion that some of them might have a notion of long term thought.

Clarste One Winged Egret Since: Jun, 2009 Relationship Status: Non-Canon
One Winged Egret
#327743: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:44:16 PM

Also any sort of major voting reform would immediately kill the GOP forever since they only have a chance at all because they've long since rigged the system in their favor. They know this, so they will not accept anything that would be literal suicide.

Imca (Veteran)
#327744: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:46:47 PM

[up][up][up]See Kauvagan.

"No we aren't going to confirm a literal rapist"

then they confirm a literal rapist.

Edited by Imca on Sep 18th 2020 at 8:47:21 AM

Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#327745: Sep 18th 2020 at 8:47:05 PM

In terms of actual court-packing, is it "add enough justices to make the Court majority liberal" (presumably 7-6, so increase the Court to 13) or would making it 6-5 conservative (increase the Court to 11) to put the thing back to where it was before this latest mess started be offer-able in exchange for, I dunno, revitalizing the Voting Rights Act or something?

Presumably the former. The latter is pointless because the right-wing court members were the ones who fucked it up, and there's no way they will ever go back on that.

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#327746: Sep 18th 2020 at 9:05:08 PM

It's not the good of their hearts we should be relying on, it's the notion that some of them might have a notion of long term thought.

Well, *that's* a hopeful thought.

i'm tired, my friend
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#327747: Sep 18th 2020 at 9:09:38 PM

Well, medium term.

Seems weird, not doing anything would probably be the most politically savvy thing that they could do; if it wouldn't win them the election it might make it easier to cling on to the Senate like limpets.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#327748: Sep 18th 2020 at 9:09:54 PM

@DingoWalley1 I checked out all the names on your list, and no one has said they would vote against (Everyone is either rumors/hearsay or said so before Ginsburg passed.)


And I just read the most ridiculous argument Senate Republicans are making, per a Washington Post writer: Link

[T]here are discussions within the Senate GOP about voting *before* the election, making the argument that 9 justices are needed in case of an election crisis.

Late edit: Sorry, got Bob Casey Jr. mixed up.

Edited by nova92 on Sep 19th 2020 at 6:00:08 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#327749: Sep 18th 2020 at 9:17:36 PM

Reminder: the last election had 8 justices.

Even more bizarre that they're staking out positions (or at least McConnell is before the weekend's even over. You would think that someone with political experience would at least take, oh, longer than 6 hours to consider the most successful option available to them.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#327750: Sep 18th 2020 at 9:18:17 PM

So much for medium-term thought?


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