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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#326326: Sep 5th 2020 at 11:21:50 AM

Attacking China through trade is an appropriate step given its belligerent attitude in the region and its lawlessness domestically.

Trump's stupidity however, led America to wage a trade war on multiple fronts, most of them against US allies. I'd like to think Biden will descalate that at least.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#326327: Sep 5th 2020 at 11:25:17 AM

Attacking China through trade is an appropriate step given its belligerent attitude in the region and its lawlessness domestically.

Trump's stupidity however, led America to wage a trade war on multiple fronts, most of them against US allies. I'd like to think Biden will descalate that at least.

This is only true if you ignore the fact that 1) attacking China through trade just devastated the American industries that work with them and 2) there is absolutely no evidence that it has done anything to improve their behavior.

It's not worth it. Restricting our economic warfare to them wouldn't be better.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 5th 2020 at 11:25:37 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#326328: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:00:17 PM

The intention of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan was to make it easy for the US the option to bail out if the situation on the ground becomes untenable; it’s very much an arrangement made with the US experience in Vietnam in mind. China currently isn’t at the point where that’s a probable outcome of an armed conflict with Taiwan, but in the future it might not be a simple matter of sinking the Chinese navy and starving the country out via blockade, which is what makes a war over Taiwan extremely unlikely at this time. 15 years from now, it may not be that easy, so there’s pros and cons to a more forceful guarantee of Taiwan’s de facto independence.

Realistically, if the US had wanted an independent Taiwan it shouldn’t have stepped in and talked them into abandoning their nuclear program in the 70s, nothing else besides nukes or Balkanization of China can realistically prevent a power occupying China’s geographic position from wanting to control Taiwan, a China that doesn’t control Taiwan is extremely vulnerable to blockade and can only project power with the consent of whoever the major maritime power in East Asia currently is. At this point there are only bad options, and terrible ones.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 5th 2020 at 3:13:27 PM

Medinoc from France (Before Recorded History)
#326329: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:02:18 PM

there is absolutely no evidence that it has done anything to improve their behavior.
But it's never been about their behavior. Trump's trade wars are all about money. At no point was there any hint of "stop atrocities and we'll stop the sanctions".

Edited by Medinoc on Sep 5th 2020 at 9:02:55 PM

"And as long as a sack of shit is not a good thing to be, chivalry will never die."
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#326330: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:04:42 PM

But it's never been about their behavior. Trump's trade wars are all about money. At no point was there any hint of "stop atrocities and we'll stop the sanctions".

Trade wars and sanctions aren't the same things, but I will point out that sanctions don't have a much better record. We've sanctioned Iran for decades and it's accomplished nothing beyond hurting Iranians.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 5th 2020 at 12:04:59 PM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#326331: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:14:16 PM

[up] Then there’s Cuba which was sanctioned for decades on end until Castro died of old age.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 5th 2020 at 3:14:42 PM

Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#326332: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:14:17 PM

[up][up][up][up]Even in 15 years it is unlikely China will have overcome it's strategic weaknesses.

It would need absolutely overwhelming Naval power and/or the most extensive and efficent land based trade infrastructure the world has ever seen. I know they are working on both of those but we should not overestimate their ability to acquire one or the other (let alone both) in even the medium term.

[up]We all know that was punishment for circumventing American hegemony and adopting the bad ideology, which is usually what sanctions are actually for.

Edited by Mio on Sep 5th 2020 at 3:15:54 PM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#326333: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:16:29 PM

[up] China does’t need to outright win, it just needs to not lose long enough for the American public to turn against the war like they have in every case since Vietnam onwards when the going got tough. There’s a huge asymmetry in China’s favor in terms of how important Taiwan is for them, strategically, and how much the public cares.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 5th 2020 at 3:20:19 PM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#326334: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:20:05 PM

That said, unlike trade wars I'm not intrinsically opposed to sanctions. I'm not especially convinced of their efficacy, hence my Iran example and Capt's Cuba example, but I'm not intrinsically opposed to targeted sanctions.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 5th 2020 at 12:20:25 PM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#326335: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:25:39 PM

[up][up]The US isn't the only power in the region that would not like to see China expand it's influence. I think you do not realize how weak China's position is in a Naval conflict, being sourrounded by more then a few "Unsinkable Carriers" and and having more world class navies in the area other then the US.

Not to mention it is still yet to be determined if China could successfully develop the Naval capability to perform a successful Naval landing required to secure Taiwan in the short or even medium term.

It'll be much longer then 15 years before we have to worry about that, and I doubt the other powers in the region will fail to take notice and do something about it.

Edited by Mio on Sep 5th 2020 at 3:27:54 PM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#326336: Sep 5th 2020 at 12:37:09 PM

[up] There’s a significant degree of animosity between the other nations of East Asia, particularly between Korea and Japan, and I find it unlikely that’s going anywhere anytime soon, which makes building a coherent anti-China coalition that doesn’t undermine itself with infighting and squabbling in the region far from assured. They might manage it, but that’s not really something the US can control. Those grudges go back centuries in some cases, and I don’t see much prospect of improvement in the near term. Then there’s the question of what Russia does.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 5th 2020 at 3:39:42 PM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#326337: Sep 5th 2020 at 2:57:58 PM

India alone might well be positioned to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, especially if its military keeps growing.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Imca (Veteran)
#326338: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:10:00 PM

CC Your right that South East Asia hates eachother in ways Amercians will never understand, but your missing a key detail.

While we all hate eachother, we all hate China a hell of a lot more.

None of the alliances stay coherent while nothing is happening, but trust me as soon as China did something that would take a back seat to making sure China stayed inside China because no one (sans maybe our opposition partys back home) is stupid enough to think they are just going to be content with Taiwan.

Every one would go right back to fighting agian after, but make no mistake China has a special spot on the hate totem that one can only earn after literaly thousands of years of being the regional bully.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#326339: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:18:56 PM

Multiple boasts have sunk in Texas during a MAGA boat parade. Appears that no one was hurt.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/05/us/trump-parade-boats-sink-trnd/index.html

"Dumbkirk" is now trending on Twitter.smile

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Kayeka (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#326340: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:20:57 PM

How the fuck does that even happen?

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#326341: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:21:18 PM

the sea was angry that day, my friends

Edited by Ultimatum on Sep 5th 2020 at 10:21:27 AM

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#326342: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:21:43 PM

If you trust Twitter, apparently the waves on the lake weren't that big and a few boats collided with each other.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Sep 5th 2020 at 7:22:03 AM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Blueeyedrat Since: Oct, 2010
#326343: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:24:29 PM

I like Seth Abramson's take on it:

I want everyone to be OK, and moreover I want everyone's boat to be OK. I want events like this to go off in a way that keeps everyone and their property safe.

And in addition to all of that, I'll say that it is really hard to ignore the metaphor encoded in this.

You can't overload a waterway with boats being operated by people more focused on drinking, cheering, taking pictures of themselves and others, and in general being part of a bizarre protest milieu for wealthy people than operating their dangerous heavy equipment properly.

Edited by Blueeyedrat on Sep 5th 2020 at 3:24:55 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#326344: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:26:52 PM

I saw some say the wake from the larger boats swamped the small ones.

Never thought I'd see the Blue Wave made literal.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#326345: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:28:33 PM

I am not rooting for people to be hurt, but I agree that the metaphor is just too delicious to ignore.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
astrokitty Happiness is a cup of tea from Somewhere Out There Since: May, 2014 Relationship Status: Yes, I'm alone, but I'm alone and free
Happiness is a cup of tea
#326346: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:34:22 PM

Sometimes, the metaphors just make themselves.

Somebody once told me the world was macaroni, I took a bite out of a tree
Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#326347: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:44:45 PM

@Captain Capsase

Worth noting also is that the groups the US has lost to before are in a pretty different position than what China is in.

The US specifically has a problem dealing with disorganized militias and insurgents. These are loose, divided organizations that can just sort of pop up, kind of like fighting weeds or large swarms of insects. The War On Terror, for example, has become a Forever War, essentially, because there's nothing to beat.

By contrast, The PRC is less a bunch of snakes and more a single dragon. It's a very specific organization with a clear hierarchy. Sure, it's a formidable enemy, buuuut it's also a 'solid' entity that you actually can just shoot to death.

In video game terms: Terrorists are Goddamn Bats and The War On Terror is like trying to clear a cave of Zubats in a Pokemon game. The Zubats aren't hard, but there's infinite of them and you're wasting your time fighting them. A war against China would be more akin to fighting That One Boss in a video game.

Leviticus 19:34
slimcoder The Head of the Hydra Since: May, 2013
The Head of the Hydra
#326348: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:46:31 PM

Now that is just hilarious-ass karma.

Funny as shit. [lol]

"I am Alpharius. This is a lie."
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#326349: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:47:51 PM

Now Antifa Navy is trending too.

Ayasugi Since: Oct, 2010
#326350: Sep 5th 2020 at 3:52:18 PM

And where were the water police? The local ones have been stepping up patrols and the like because so many more people are going boating in general, they definitely should've been at a big water event like that to make sure rule violations get stopped before they turn into accidents.


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