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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
I'm afraid that Trump has good chances to win, for one simple reason: to me it seems that history is repeating what happened here with Silvio Berlusconi.
Berlusconi too is a corrupt, womanizing entrepreneur who wants to rule the state as if it were just another one of his industries, is a compulsive liar, has a blatant disregard for rules of any kind and justifies everything he has ever done with his hate-boner for Communism, by saying "without me the Communists will win, and there will be poverty, death and despair everywhere!". And people voted him en masse, loved him and there's still a small subset of people who sees him as the best prime minister we had, because he made life good for entrepreneurs.
There's also the push for anti-intellectualism he enabled by being the owner of most Italian newspapers and TVs (the well-known "conflict of interests" which never was actually resolved), pushing the idea that studying is worthless and the only way to be successful is to become an entrepreneur, a celebrity or win money in his TV quizzes. However, this came back to slightly bite him in the ass when all this anti-intellectualism gave way to the rise of the populist Five Star movement, who branded Berlusconi as another member of the "caste" of rich and powerful men who ruined the country and caused his downfall in the polls. (make no mistake, Five Star is still a bunch of populists and believers in various conspiracies, so here's yet another similarity)
Basically the only differences I can see between Trump and Berlusconi are that Berlusconi is smarter, hornier, never had any interest in the internet, social networks or any "new" technology, and he is capable of empathy towards others (or at least is very good at faking it).
"Effective Altruism" is just another bunch of horsesh*t.I'm not sure if comparing two different people, with different electorates, different democratic systems, different languages and different continents and cultures counts as "history repeats"
feels more like jamming a square peg into a round hole for the sake of the comparison.
"You can reply to this Message!"Actually, I think the most important difference is that Italy's electoral system is less of a joke than the American one, and that Trump has a large - nay, dominating - dyed-in-the-wool hatedom.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanI'm sort of torn by the "Trump's going to win" arguments. On the one hand, it means two more months of doom-saying. On the other hand, the Democrats really need a dominant performance by Biden to win the Senate, and complacency will lead to that failing.
This feels somewhat like 2008, when it was clear Obama was going to defeat McCain if you looked at the polling, but there was a lot of discussion that assumed the election was close.
Edited by thok on Aug 31st 2020 at 5:23:29 AM
Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red
: There is apparently a long-term trend towards Minnesota being more Republican than the country as a whole, which occurred first in 2016 and may be even more pronounced in 2020 - with the catch that Biden's poll lead is probably going to hold (but not necessarily in 2024, 2028, 2032 and so on).
What To Watch In Today’s Elections In Alaska, Florida And Wyoming
. Apparently, though, Republican primaries this year are little more than "I am Trump's biggest supporter""No, I am!" contests.
Why Trump’s Racist Appeals Might Be Less Effective In 2020 Than They Were In 2016
: Some interesting discussion about how racial animus correlates to voting behaviour and differences between primary/general, 2016/2020 elections.
Can I just say that I'm getting very frustrated with people trying to find the magic formula that will somehow let us see into the future? We're constantly seeing headlines like "Is this the one true key that will predict the 2020 election?" and "Is the 2020 election going to be an exact replica of 1980 or UK 2019 etc." (nevermind the differing political contexts, candidates), "This guy who was the only one to realize Trump would win in 2016 also thinks he'll win in 2020" (ignoring all the other times they got it wrong). IMHO it's all a bunch of quackery.
NPR: Wis. Governor Calls Session On Police Reform; Republicans Refuse To Show
The Wisconsin State Legislature is scheduled to officially convene Monday for a special session on police training requirements and policy standards. But GOP lawmakers aren't expected to be present, nor are any debates or votes expected to happen.
The special session, called by Gov. Tony Evers, puts on display the policy stalemate between the Democratic governor and the state's Republican-controlled Legislature after a police officer shot Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., a little more than a week ago.
The shooting spurred several days of unrest in the city, including the shooting deaths of two protesters.
For months, Evers has urged lawmakers to consider bills that would set statewide standards for police use of force and ban chokeholds and no-knock warrants, but Republicans have argued they need more time to craft their own proposals.
What are the Republican proposals, you might ask?
In a prepared statement, Fitzgerald [State Senate Majority Leader] said he expects lawmakers to consider a variety of proposals related to policing "in the coming months." He said he would like those bills to include legislation to increase penalties for violence against police.
"The riots in Kenosha and Madison this week further demonstrated that first responders are performing their public service duties at great risk to their personal safety," he said.
Another proposal from a different Republican state senator, unveiled last week, would penalize local governments for shifting money from their law enforcement budgets to other things, like public health or education initiatives — a move many activists are calling "defunding the police."
...
As an alternative, Vos [State Assembly Speaker] announced a legislative task force on "racial disparities, educational opportunities, public safety, and police policies and standards." Similar past initiatives on subjects like homelessness and adoption have taken several months to produce legislation.
As Trump’s popularity slips in latest Military Times poll, more troops say they’ll vote for Biden – About half of troops surveyed for the poll said they have an unfavorable view of the commander in chief.
Trump has a reasonable chance to win (about 1 in 3 according to nate silver). More than that is speculation, even more so this election with huge unknowns regarding the pandemic and mail voting.
Going " trump will definitely win/lose" is largely futile. Pick the narrative that gives you most peace of mind.
I want to comment on this, just to inject a little levity for everyone.
Roman letters were uncovered at Hadrian's Wall a number of years ago, family letters between soldiers stationed at the Wall and family back home in Rome.
The letters included people moaning about the youth of 'today' having no respect for their elders and betters, and how society was going to fall apart because of it.
So, yes, the complaint has been confirmed to be at least 2,000 years old.
If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.Only 3760's kids will know the struggle of having to grow in the post-capitalist, neopaleo-socialist, marxist-elonmuskian asteroid dirt farms of Rigel-69 under the rule of Mecha-Hillary Clinton of the Reptilian Coalition with nothing but Disney-Nickelodeon Reruns of SABRINA THE IRRADIATED MUTANT WITCH and FULLESTEST HOUSE wired directly into your brain via Ultra gamma rays.
And my parents complained about having to fly against the asteroid belt in order to go into indoctrination school!
This guy knows what I'm talking about.
It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothesI've been personally trying to keep myself from falling into that mindset, but I find myself occasionally complaining about Gen Zers mentally, and it's obvious some millennial have started to fall into that mentality.
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love.""Generations" have never really been a useful unit for sociological analysis and these days seem to exist more as marketing demographics then anything else.
That aside I do wonder if the current uptick in Trump support and rejecting of BLM will have legs and what it will take to stop that trend.
Focusing on the protests, rioting, and other civil conflicts will likely work in the rights favor, especially when the news outlets will probably keep covering them for ratings purposes. I imagine unless we see another coronavirus wave the news cycle will remain in the right's favor at least until the debates. I am not looking forward to the debates.
I don't care what Gen Z is up to myself. Gen Alpha, the ones born from 2015-2025, are gonna be far more interesting to me.
Watch SymphogearAn appeals court has denied the Justice Department's/the defense's request to immediately end the Michael Flynn case.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/politics/michael-flynn-court-case/index.html
I cannot help but disagree with this assertion on some levels. I agree they are intensely useless now but there was a certain uniformity that was applicable for some generations that provided useful information. Or at least, the first steps on other theories.
Furthermore, the concept (and as you say, market for it) has been constructed to a point where it's taken an amorphous shape, rambling and mumbling, and less predictable that one may comfortably say - but it's still a useful reference. Sort of.
Kinda. A bit.
It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes

He should have known what he was getting into when he was told he had to sign that contract in blood
Trump delenda est