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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Still, it does feel like there are a lot of polls that are saying he’s losing support. You can say “don’t take just one poll into account”, but people have been bringing up more than just one poll.
I’m hoping it’s just due to the RNC, and that things will turn around soon, but I don’t think it’s abnormal for people to worry.
His decrease in support still puts him in a comfortable lead, I'm not arguing that Trump can't win but it would be counterfactual to argue as if some posters aren't worrying over any change in polling.
Yes, Trump got a bump, Clinton did too.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 30th 2020 at 8:09:55 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangHas there been a decrease in support (for Biden) recently, in either national or statewide polling? My impression was that Biden has been polling remarkably steadily (50-51%), and the slightly larger gap between the two in late June-early July was because Trump lost a point or two.
Edited by nova92 on Aug 30th 2020 at 8:17:04 AM
I am thinking that Biden's post-convention bounce is wearing off and Trump is getting his own bounce. So I am thinking an ephemeral change of only 3 percentage points or so that will reverse soon. I could see a longer term trend iff there are no more major troubles from here forward but given that Biden's lead over Trump did not increase that much after COVID-19 I don't think it'd be a large one.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanHas there been a decrease in support (for Biden) recently, in either national or statewide polling? My impression was that Biden has been polling remarkably steadily (50-51%), and the slightly larger gap between the two in late June-early July was because Trump lost a point or two.
Kind of, per-Silver there has been slight gains for Trump in a few polls but others either show no change or growing support for Biden.
The "Biden's support is weakening" narrative seems far more exaggerated then substantive.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 30th 2020 at 8:23:01 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangI've actually been wondering what "incumbent advantage" even means in practice.
Does it literally just mean "you're in office, so people will be more likely to vote fo you" or does it mean that because you're in office, you're in a position to sway voters to your side by pushing for legislation beneficial to said voters?
We learn from history that we do not learn from historyAnybody here from Massachusetts? Was wondering if anyone could shed some light on why the governor there is activating 1000 Natioal Guard.
I haven't seen any reports about thing getting out of hand there.
A combination of things. Most of them are nullified by the nature of a presidential election—they have no control over the election time or date—and that the president has no special privileges for sending mail. Others, like name recognition and public awareness, have no advantage here because Biden is a former two-term VP.
The only normal element of an incumbency advantage is that it's often foremost a referendum on the incumbent.
I think normally the incumbent also has the advantage of having proven themselves as a president, or having the perception of having done so, at least.
Basically, if you didn't screw up so badly as to get yourself impeached or cause a major political scandal, most low information voters will see that as a plus in the incumbent's favour.
Of course Trump has already squandered that particular advantage, so that will likely not be a factor now.
Hope shines brightest in the darkest timesThis is the tragedy of Trump's presidency, such as it is: the man just does not know when to shut up and lay low.
Most of his crises are self inflicted, and he would likely be doing a lot better if he didn't actively make things worse for himself and not make use of all the help he has access to.
Trump is a prime example of someone in a leadership position who is patently unqualified to be a leader, regardless of his politics.
Hope shines brightest in the darkest timesThis is the tragedy of Trump's presidency, such as it is: the man just does not know when to shut up and lay low.
I'm not sure I'd call this a tragedy, the best kind of reactionary is an incompetent one
The real tragedy is all the votes given him anyway because of people who would rather destroy their own home just to keep the hate present rather than allow acceptance in.
My musician page~Crimson Zephyr is from there IIRC
i'm tired, my friendThe real tragedy is all the votes given him anyway because of people who would rather destroy their own home just to keep the hate present rather than allow acceptance in.
Too true. Too many white people don't mind fucking over their futures if the "right people" are also hurt.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang

I'll just link Nate Silvers take on the situation here
.
I feel like if this remains true a week from now, then we should start panicking.
You can only write so much in your forum signature. It's not fair that I want to write a piece of writing yet it will cut me off in the mid