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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

jjjj2 from Arrakis Since: Jul, 2015
#325451: Aug 30th 2020 at 7:58:52 AM

I'll just link Nate Silvers take on the situation here.

I feel like if this remains true a week from now, then we should start panicking.

You can only write so much in your forum signature. It's not fair that I want to write a piece of writing yet it will cut me off in the mid
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#325452: Aug 30th 2020 at 8:06:06 AM

Election 2020 Drinking Game: Every time someone comes in with ONE Poll that looks bad and then five people having to point out that one poll doesn't mean much and showing aggregate polls, other polls or (make it a shot of Jägermeister) 538 in response.

"You can reply to this Message!"
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#325453: Aug 30th 2020 at 8:09:31 AM

Still, it does feel like there are a lot of polls that are saying he’s losing support. You can say “don’t take just one poll into account”, but people have been bringing up more than just one poll.

I’m hoping it’s just due to the RNC, and that things will turn around soon, but I don’t think it’s abnormal for people to worry.

His decrease in support still puts him in a comfortable lead, I'm not arguing that Trump can't win but it would be counterfactual to argue as if some posters aren't worrying over any change in polling.

Yes, Trump got a bump, Clinton did too.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 30th 2020 at 8:09:55 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
HailMuffins Since: May, 2016 Relationship Status: Shipping fictional characters
#325454: Aug 30th 2020 at 8:09:44 AM

[up][up]I have enough liver problems as it is, thanks.

Edited by HailMuffins on Aug 30th 2020 at 12:09:55 PM

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#325455: Aug 30th 2020 at 8:15:34 AM

Has there been a decrease in support (for Biden) recently, in either national or statewide polling? My impression was that Biden has been polling remarkably steadily (50-51%), and the slightly larger gap between the two in late June-early July was because Trump lost a point or two.

Edited by nova92 on Aug 30th 2020 at 8:17:04 AM

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#325456: Aug 30th 2020 at 8:18:09 AM

I am thinking that Biden's post-convention bounce is wearing off and Trump is getting his own bounce. So I am thinking an ephemeral change of only 3 percentage points or so that will reverse soon. I could see a longer term trend iff there are no more major troubles from here forward but given that Biden's lead over Trump did not increase that much after COVID-19 I don't think it'd be a large one.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#325457: Aug 30th 2020 at 8:22:48 AM

Has there been a decrease in support (for Biden) recently, in either national or statewide polling? My impression was that Biden has been polling remarkably steadily (50-51%), and the slightly larger gap between the two in late June-early July was because Trump lost a point or two.

Kind of, per-Silver there has been slight gains for Trump in a few polls but others either show no change or growing support for Biden.

The "Biden's support is weakening" narrative seems far more exaggerated then substantive.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 30th 2020 at 8:23:01 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325458: Aug 30th 2020 at 8:24:22 AM

It's perfectly normal for any candidate to have small swings up and down in support running up to an election. Part of that is probably that some voters just haven't made up their minds yet about Biden.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#325459: Aug 30th 2020 at 8:27:35 AM

[up] That which unless things snowball more, they will likely just vote for the incumbent.

This narrative is also probably Biden's worst enemy atm too.

Edited by Memers on Aug 30th 2020 at 8:38:21 AM

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#325460: Aug 30th 2020 at 9:35:47 AM

How much of an incumbent advantage does Trump actually have, given, y'know, the entirety of his presidency? My understanding has generally been that his support has come from his base and/or the hyper-partisans who will vote red even if it makes them dead.

DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#325461: Aug 30th 2020 at 9:41:42 AM

I've actually been wondering what "incumbent advantage" even means in practice.

Does it literally just mean "you're in office, so people will be more likely to vote fo you" or does it mean that because you're in office, you're in a position to sway voters to your side by pushing for legislation beneficial to said voters?

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#325462: Aug 30th 2020 at 9:47:10 AM

Anybody here from Massachusetts? Was wondering if anyone could shed some light on why the governor there is activating 1000 Natioal Guard. I haven't seen any reports about thing getting out of hand there.

smokeycut Since: Mar, 2013
#325463: Aug 30th 2020 at 9:49:03 AM

The incumbent advantage, if it’s about being seen as someone the public already knows and knows what to expect if they win (which is what I always assumed it was, but could be wrong) would benefit Biden too, since he was VP to a pretty popular president.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#325464: Aug 30th 2020 at 10:02:32 AM

They also get a lot of free media attention since anything a president says or does gets into the news cycle.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#325465: Aug 30th 2020 at 10:04:15 AM

A combination of things. Most of them are nullified by the nature of a presidential election—they have no control over the election time or date—and that the president has no special privileges for sending mail. Others, like name recognition and public awareness, have no advantage here because Biden is a former two-term VP.

The only normal element of an incumbency advantage is that it's often foremost a referendum on the incumbent.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325466: Aug 30th 2020 at 10:32:06 AM

I think normally the incumbent also has the advantage of having proven themselves as a president, or having the perception of having done so, at least.

Basically, if you didn't screw up so badly as to get yourself impeached or cause a major political scandal, most low information voters will see that as a plus in the incumbent's favour.

Of course Trump has already squandered that particular advantage, so that will likely not be a factor now.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#325467: Aug 30th 2020 at 10:37:20 AM

That's why I was wondering. Sometimes attention is not an advantage - if you spent four years virtually setting shit on fire, telling people "Hey, remember this guy?" does not sound advantageous.

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#325468: Aug 30th 2020 at 10:39:04 AM

There's also the bit where being incumbent means you don't have to go the primary process and thus can start the campaign without bleeding from a bunch of injuries inflicted by your theoretical allies.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325469: Aug 30th 2020 at 11:17:42 AM

This is the tragedy of Trump's presidency, such as it is: the man just does not know when to shut up and lay low.

Most of his crises are self inflicted, and he would likely be doing a lot better if he didn't actively make things worse for himself and not make use of all the help he has access to.

Trump is a prime example of someone in a leadership position who is patently unqualified to be a leader, regardless of his politics.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
slimcoder The Head of the Hydra Since: May, 2013
The Head of the Hydra
#325470: Aug 30th 2020 at 11:22:39 AM

I kinda expect him to go on some kind of meltdown over the DNC have better ratings than the RNC on every day.

With his own speech having the lowest ratings for any RNC candidate and especially getting lower ratings than Biden's own speech.

"I am Alpharius. This is a lie."
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#325471: Aug 30th 2020 at 11:25:51 AM

This is the tragedy of Trump's presidency, such as it is: the man just does not know when to shut up and lay low.

I'm not sure I'd call this a tragedy, the best kind of reactionary is an incompetent one tongue

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
ShinyCottonCandy Everyone's friend Malamar from Lumiose City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Everyone's friend Malamar
#325472: Aug 30th 2020 at 11:29:46 AM

The real tragedy is all the votes given him anyway because of people who would rather destroy their own home just to keep the hate present rather than allow acceptance in.

My musician page
PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#325473: Aug 30th 2020 at 11:35:19 AM

Anybody here from Massachusetts? Was wondering if anyone could shed some light on why the governor there is activating 1000 Natioal Guard. I haven't seen any reports about thing getting out of hand there.

~Crimson Zephyr is from there IIRC

i'm tired, my friend
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#325474: Aug 30th 2020 at 11:50:57 AM

The real tragedy is all the votes given him anyway because of people who would rather destroy their own home just to keep the hate present rather than allow acceptance in.

Too true. Too many white people don't mind fucking over their futures if the "right people" are also hurt.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#325475: Aug 30th 2020 at 12:06:54 PM

[up] Because they're sociopaths.

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"

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