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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Sorry.
So Five Thirty Eight just dropped Biden's odds again, from 73% down to 70% yesterday, and now down to 69% today. Is this just an effect of the RNC happening now, or could it be a long-term trend that will continue right up to the election?
Well, right now it looks like this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
If you scroll down to the "how the forecast has changed" section, you'll see that the odds haven't been this low for Biden since they started keeping track back in June.
It looks like Hurticane Laura didn't like Lake Charles's confederate monument.
But yeah, the damage coming out of Lake Charles is bad, and people haven't reached Cameron yet, qhere the damage is expected to be at its worst.
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."Nate Silver has a hypothesis that support for Black Lives Matter goes up when Trump comments on it, because many people are tuned towards adopting stances just for the sake of being contrarian to Trump
. Apparently this isn't the only circumstance where contrarianism matters - here's one about campaign funding
.
A poll that shows Biden ahead in Pennsylvania but also indicates differences in how-will-I-vote intentions that could negate such a lead
since absentee ballots are more likely to be rejected than in-person ones. OTOH some commenters indicate that the difficulties in in-person voting might have a compensating effect.
A bump is to be expected during/after conventions but it is a decent sign of worry with election interference and everything being a factor.
No, it's not a decent reason to worry. Bumps by their very nature tend to be transitory, Biden's polling has been extremely consistent and I'll believe that'll change when I see it.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang![]()
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Are you saying a liberal hurricane is destroying the south? Sounds oddly symbolic.
Did anyone mention the Kenosha shooting already? Now there's something to worry about in the coming months. How many more militiamen are going to take matters in their own hands like this?
Edited by Redmess on Aug 27th 2020 at 6:53:45 PM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest timesIf you're worried about Biden's chances in the general election (and live in the U.S.), take that worry and do something with it. The Democrats can always use more phone bankers.
Well Tucker Carlson is up there on Most Watched News Network praising him like a goddamn comic book superhero. So that's not going to result in fewer shootings.
The main takeaway from the Kenosha shooting is that angry white boys with guns who want to shoot up whatever "SJW" bug is up their particular butt can actually get police support and approval, and don't need to act like the law is against them when planning their attacks.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 27th 2020 at 10:26:12 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.It's insane. It is utterly insane. This is the police openly siding with terrorists.
And what if these terrorists start openly supporting Trump for president no matter what, and the police is behind them like this? I think that is definitely something to be scared about.
Are we sure the police will still be on the side of democracy when the need is highest?
Edited by Redmess on Aug 27th 2020 at 7:31:54 PM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
