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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.

Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.

If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules when posting here.


In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

slimcoder The Head of the Hydra Since: May, 2013
The Head of the Hydra
#325202: Aug 27th 2020 at 3:46:01 AM

Admitably I have joked to my family if things get bad enough we should prolly move to Canada or New Zealand.

How is New Zealand anyway?

"I am Alpharius. This is a lie."
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#325203: Aug 27th 2020 at 3:48:04 AM

Closed I believe. tongue

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
slimcoder The Head of the Hydra Since: May, 2013
The Head of the Hydra
#325204: Aug 27th 2020 at 3:49:46 AM

Oh fuck right no one wants Americans on their soil.

Not that I blame them but Goddamn we're stuck here. Its sobering when you realize every country has closed their doors to America. [lol]

"I am Alpharius. This is a lie."
devak They call me.... Prophet Since: Jul, 2019 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
They call me.... Prophet
#325205: Aug 27th 2020 at 4:29:00 AM

Iirc most countries demand American travellers to quarantine.

Travel sucks right now but it isn't impossible

Edited by devak on Aug 27th 2020 at 1:29:14 PM

ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#325206: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:40:31 AM

So Five Thirty Eight just dropped Biden's odds again, from 73% down to 70% yesterday, and now down to 69% today. Is this just an effect of the RNC happening now, or could it be a long-term trend that will continue right up to the election?

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#325207: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:43:33 AM

> or could it be a long-term trend that will continue right up to the election?

Like being 0% when it comes to actually voting?Don't count on it,I expect its going to be constantly in a flux right up to the debates

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#325208: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:44:51 AM

Can we not live blog single % changes from the 538 model? Sounds like unnecessary and unproductive stress.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
HailMuffins Since: May, 2016 Relationship Status: Shipping fictional characters
#325209: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:48:58 AM

Maybe if it keeps dropping for several days in a row, then it might be worth taking note of, but I'm willing to bet these sorts of fluctuations happen all the time.

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#325210: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:49:49 AM

Yeah, it's not worth tracking this frequently, especially in the middle of convention season when polls get predictably weird anyway.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#325211: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:50:44 AM

Well, right now it looks like this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

If you scroll down to the "how the forecast has changed" section, you'll see that the odds haven't been this low for Biden since they started keeping track back in June.

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#325212: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:51:03 AM

Again, it uses a moving set of datapoints. It's not worth checking it daily, you'd want to check only once a week or something to see if anything that's happened has had an impact on public opinion.

Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#325213: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:51:45 AM

Don't make me tap the sign.

"Yup. That tasted purple."
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325214: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:55:26 AM

What sign?

And yeah, once a week sounds about right. Daily updates are just going to stress you out.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#325215: Aug 27th 2020 at 8:58:57 AM

They are referring to the mod post where they said stop posting doom and gloom

here

and in stickied post up there

Edited by Ultimatum on Aug 27th 2020 at 4:00:26 PM

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#325216: Aug 27th 2020 at 9:11:17 AM

A bump is to be expected during/after conventions but it is a decent sign of worry with election interference and everything being a factor.

Edited by Memers on Aug 27th 2020 at 9:12:16 AM

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#325217: Aug 27th 2020 at 9:13:36 AM

It looks like Hurticane Laura didn't like Lake Charles's confederate monument.

But yeah, the damage coming out of Lake Charles is bad, and people haven't reached Cameron yet, qhere the damage is expected to be at its worst.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#325218: Aug 27th 2020 at 9:15:49 AM

Nate Silver has a hypothesis that support for Black Lives Matter goes up when Trump comments on it, because many people are tuned towards adopting stances just for the sake of being contrarian to Trump. Apparently this isn't the only circumstance where contrarianism matters - here's one about campaign funding.

A poll that shows Biden ahead in Pennsylvania but also indicates differences in how-will-I-vote intentions that could negate such a lead since absentee ballots are more likely to be rejected than in-person ones. OTOH some commenters indicate that the difficulties in in-person voting might have a compensating effect.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#325219: Aug 27th 2020 at 9:42:47 AM

So how many different prediction sites are showing Biden have a drop in number?

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#325220: Aug 27th 2020 at 9:45:18 AM

A bump is to be expected during/after conventions but it is a decent sign of worry with election interference and everything being a factor.

No, it's not a decent reason to worry. Bumps by their very nature tend to be transitory, Biden's polling has been extremely consistent and I'll believe that'll change when I see it.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325221: Aug 27th 2020 at 9:53:19 AM

[up][up][up][up] Are you saying a liberal hurricane is destroying the south? Sounds oddly symbolic. grin

Did anyone mention the Kenosha shooting already? Now there's something to worry about in the coming months. How many more militiamen are going to take matters in their own hands like this?

Edited by Redmess on Aug 27th 2020 at 6:53:45 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#325222: Aug 27th 2020 at 9:53:46 AM

And convention bumps, for both parties, have been shrinking for several cycles now, IIRC.

[up]Its been mentioned in the terrorism and unrest threads.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Aug 27th 2020 at 1:54:16 PM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325223: Aug 27th 2020 at 10:07:43 AM

[up] Yeah, with the internet around, I think these conventions have lost much of their utility when it comes to informing voters.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#325224: Aug 27th 2020 at 10:23:00 AM

If you're worried about Biden's chances in the general election (and live in the U.S.), take that worry and do something with it. The Democrats can always use more phone bankers.

Did anyone mention the Kenosha shooting already? Now there's something to worry about in the coming months. How many more militiamen are going to take matters in their own hands like this?

Well Tucker Carlson is up there on Most Watched News Network praising him like a goddamn comic book superhero. So that's not going to result in fewer shootings.

The main takeaway from the Kenosha shooting is that angry white boys with guns who want to shoot up whatever "SJW" bug is up their particular butt can actually get police support and approval, and don't need to act like the law is against them when planning their attacks.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 27th 2020 at 10:26:12 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325225: Aug 27th 2020 at 10:30:49 AM

It's insane. It is utterly insane. This is the police openly siding with terrorists.

And what if these terrorists start openly supporting Trump for president no matter what, and the police is behind them like this? I think that is definitely something to be scared about.

Are we sure the police will still be on the side of democracy when the need is highest?

Edited by Redmess on Aug 27th 2020 at 7:31:54 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times

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