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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

singularityshot Since: Dec, 2012
#325176: Aug 26th 2020 at 7:22:33 PM

My gut take on the Lincoln project is that while it is great they are targeting Trump, I don't have the confidence that they have the commitment to follow through should he lose. It's not enough to just defeat Trump - the GOP and the right wing in general needs to be thoroughly disinfected of all Trumpist elements. It's a project that could take ten years or more, given that these elements took root in the aftermath of Obama's first election victory in 2008.

If the Lincoln project people are up for that task then more power to them. But I get the feeling that all they hope to do is remove Trump and then try and ride the far-right tiger once again. In other words all they want is to return to 2012 - sure, that primary was a bit of a clown show but in the end Romney won it. But returning to 2012 just gives us 2016 again in four years time, and no-one wants that to happen.

NickTheSwing Since: Aug, 2009
#325177: Aug 26th 2020 at 7:25:56 PM

Except they are targeting everyone in Congress who is complicit in Trumpism. Only Romney got out of that, and for damn good reason.

The Lincoln Project I think is legit - because they're not just targeting Trump.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325178: Aug 26th 2020 at 7:27:29 PM

I suspect those elements were older than that, since they were there for Trumpism to take root in. It's just that Trump's presidency has pushed them to the forefront.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325179: Aug 26th 2020 at 7:31:43 PM

In other news: Trump is demanding that Biden do a drug test before the next debate. Why? Apparently Trump suspects Biden used drugs to boost his performance in his TV debates, because he seemed to be doing noticeably better than in his first debates.

Apparently he made similar accusations against Hillary in 2016.

Considering how this guy's mind often seems to work, I wonder if he is the one occasionally using drugs before rallies or such.

Edited by Redmess on Aug 26th 2020 at 4:33:20 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#325180: Aug 26th 2020 at 7:32:37 PM

They did cut some nice ads for Al Gross and Steve Bullock, but I don't know if their commitment to taking down Trumpism will last once Trump is removed from office.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#325181: Aug 26th 2020 at 8:20:35 PM

From the 538 liveblog:

"Most of the night, Twitter sentiment toward Biden was more negative than positive. But during Pence’s remarks, sentiment toward Biden has rebounded back into neutral territory. Meanwhile, as Pence has generated volume, sentiment around him has worsened."

[lol]

ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#325182: Aug 26th 2020 at 8:27:54 PM

Trump, meanwhile, seems to be experiencing something of a convention bounce if the polls on Five Thirty Eight are to be believed. Their assessment of Biden's odds of winning have gone down from "favored" to "slightly favored".

Altris from the Vortex Since: Aug, 2019 Relationship Status: Not caught up in your love affair
Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#325184: Aug 26th 2020 at 8:34:15 PM

[up][up]At the end of the day, the convention is just a reminder for those people that 200,000 corpses are a lot quieter than [insert living minority here].

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#325185: Aug 26th 2020 at 8:34:17 PM

[up][up][up]We covered this, it's solely because of Rasmussen. They're a polling company that always releases ridiculously pro-Trump polls, it's a sketchy outlier.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 26th 2020 at 8:34:42 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#325186: Aug 26th 2020 at 8:37:56 PM

I take it they're releasing a lot of them close to the convention?

DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#325187: Aug 26th 2020 at 9:56:13 PM

In other news: Trump is demanding that Biden do a drug test before the next debate

Considering people suspect him of constantly being hoppef up on something during his live appearances, that's a pretty stupid road to go down.

Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Aug 26th 2020 at 6:56:27 PM

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#325188: Aug 26th 2020 at 10:17:52 PM

So speaking of FiveThirtyEight, here's something else I found on Nate Silver's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1298805722621370370

I'm actually pretty confused about it. It says that "polling and priors now support a Trump E.C. edge", which I'm not getting at all from looking at the polls we have now. In fact, earlier that same day, Silver said he thought Trump might "suffer the worst incumbent loss since Carter." What's going on here?

Edited by ElSquibbonator on Aug 26th 2020 at 1:18:49 PM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#325189: Aug 26th 2020 at 10:49:20 PM

That's Nate Cohn, not Nate Silver.

ElSquibbonator Since: Oct, 2014
#325190: Aug 26th 2020 at 11:06:23 PM

I was under the impression that Cohn also worked for FiveThirtyEight.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#325191: Aug 26th 2020 at 11:12:01 PM

No, Nate Cohn works for the NY Times.

Edited by M84 on Aug 27th 2020 at 2:12:24 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#325192: Aug 27th 2020 at 12:14:52 AM

What is going on here is that you are taking a relative statement (Trump is better off than in 2016) as an absolute statement when it isn't. 538 has always emphasized that we don't know what the effect of COVID-19 on polling errors etc. will be and since the base state has Trump as the underdog (because polling) more uncertainty means less bad situation for Trump.

Some interesting discussion of how migration patterns might turn Alaska and Montana competitive. The idea is that such small states do not need a big demographic shift to change their politics. It'd be irrelevant in presidential elections given their small size but would help immensely in Senate elections.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#325193: Aug 27th 2020 at 12:29:21 AM

I think you’re confusing two different things, an electoral college edge is not the same as an edge in the election.

So an electoral college advantage means that in the tipping point state (the state that moves the electoral collage from one winner to the other) he will do better than he does nationally.

So if Trump looses nationally by 6 points, but looses in the tipping point state by 4 points he has a 2 point electorate college edge/advantage, even though he just lost.

There is also just having an electoral college path that delivers more than it should. So getting 51% of the popular vote and receiving 60% of the electoral college votes would be another thing you could call an electoral college edge. The two are obviously tied together though.

Also I think Nate Cohn is associated with 538, I think he might be an alumni of them or something.

We covered this, it's solely because of Rasmussen.

I’m not sure it is, 538 account for house effects (unlike real clear politics). Also their model seems to have shifted only very slightly, it seems to expect Biden to win by 6 instead of 7, that could easily be noise. I think the change to slightly favoured is just crossing a line on the probability yardstick.

Edit: Quick look at the 538 model, it currently has Wisconsin as the tipping point state, Biden leads there by 3 points, he leads nationally by 6 points. That’s a 3 point electoral college advantage for Trump.

Edited by Silasw on Aug 27th 2020 at 7:43:49 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Alycus Since: Apr, 2018
#325194: Aug 27th 2020 at 2:18:30 AM

[up][up]It's funny since I remember proposals (whether made seriously or not) that Democratic voters should just migrate en masse to red states to turn them blue in future elections. Turns out it's happening anyway thanks to work opportunities. There was an article talking about this, but I can't find it right now.

CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
#325195: Aug 27th 2020 at 2:58:19 AM
Thumped: Please see The Rules . This is a warning that this post is the sort of thing that will get you suspended.
jakobitis Doctor of Doctorates from Somewhere, somewhen Since: Jan, 2015 Relationship Status: I'd need a PowerPoint presentation
Doctor of Doctorates
#325196: Aug 27th 2020 at 3:08:44 AM

Might want to rein in the doomsaying there, buddy.

"These 'no-nonsense' solutions of yours just don't hold water in a complex world of jet-powered apes and time travel."
Alycus Since: Apr, 2018
#325197: Aug 27th 2020 at 3:08:53 AM

Maybe focus on realistic fears instead of unrealistic ones?

Edited by Alycus on Aug 27th 2020 at 3:09:05 AM

devak They call me.... Prophet Since: Jul, 2019 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
They call me.... Prophet
#325198: Aug 27th 2020 at 3:13:31 AM

Why would the US shoot people who leave? The big thing of the past few years has been ensuring nobody gets in. But you were always allowed to leave.

Edited by devak on Aug 27th 2020 at 12:14:11 PM

CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
#325199: Aug 27th 2020 at 3:19:06 AM

[up] Considering what fascist dictatorships do, and the fact that international travel to the US is all but got now because of COVID...

Deadbeatloser22 MOD from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#325200: Aug 27th 2020 at 3:20:07 AM

Ease up on the doom saying, everyone.

"Yup. That tasted purple."

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