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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#325126: Aug 26th 2020 at 9:31:31 AM

A thirty-foot storm surge means that if you don't leave, you will die. Period. No "toughing it out" Survivor: Gulf Coast style.

So the question becomes "who will actually listen?", then?

Edited by sgamer82 on Aug 26th 2020 at 9:32:06 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325127: Aug 26th 2020 at 9:31:38 AM

30 feet? Wow. Yeah, that's certainly evacuation time.

Are you sure it is 30 feet, though? The Weather Channel reports upwards of 9 feet.

Speaking of, here is the Weather Channel's customary terrifying VR enactment of a 9 foot storm surge.

And a video on how to evacuate during a pandemic:

Edited by Redmess on Aug 26th 2020 at 6:37:17 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#325128: Aug 26th 2020 at 9:37:13 AM

Ron White riffed on hurricane lunacy in one of his shows: "If you get hit by a Volvo, it doesn't matter how many push-ups you did that morning."

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
ShadowWingLG Since: Dec, 2013
#325129: Aug 26th 2020 at 9:42:05 AM

When I heard the reports this morning, back when Laura was still a Cat 2 but the news of it going Cat 3 was expected any moment they were predicting 10-15 ft of Surge if not more.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#325130: Aug 26th 2020 at 10:08:38 AM

CNN said it could be near a Cat-4 when it makes landfall.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325131: Aug 26th 2020 at 10:15:39 AM

I wonder if the RNC is going to comment on this.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
ScubaWolf from South Carolina Since: Feb, 2020
#325133: Aug 26th 2020 at 10:29:23 AM

Sample size of less than 5K people per state. That's not a good sample size to take data off of.

"In a move surprising absolutely no one"
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#325134: Aug 26th 2020 at 10:31:42 AM

It's why polling aggregates are rolling averages (possibly weighted, too?). You want to respond to the new polls, but you also don't want to discard previous polls until it's clear that things are a trend and not noise.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#325135: Aug 26th 2020 at 11:17:10 AM

Trump's aggregate is trending upwards, though still within his standard margin of variance. Those 3% or so of voters that didn't make up their minds about him three years ago are pleased right now.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#325136: Aug 26th 2020 at 11:54:51 AM

This seems to be because of Rasmussen (a C+ rated poll that has always given Trump ridiculously generous odds), outliers aren't completely irrelevant but they shouldn't be given too much credence.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#325137: Aug 26th 2020 at 12:19:24 PM

Yeah. That polling firm's results aren't a concern until other, less biased firms confirm their findings. While all individual polls have limited worth on their own, this source is consistently more Republican than the average.

No need to worry about this yet.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325138: Aug 26th 2020 at 1:07:45 PM

Five Thirty Eight and Real Clear Politics both show Trump's ratings have returned to their normal pattern, though still a bit on the low side.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#325139: Aug 26th 2020 at 1:12:59 PM

So according to this Forbes article, Biden released a tax plan that's about as comprehensive as Warren's was, while Trump has released... bullet points. Unfortunately, that may work in Trump's favor, as the author cites a passage from All the King's Men which is... oddly prescient.

The 1947 novel tells the story of how Willie Stark transformed from an idealistic small town politician to a ruthless, corrupt demagogue who became a governor.

In one memorable scene, just as Stark is beginning his metamorphosis, he gives a speech about taxes. It is a flop, and Willie can’t understand why. “Looks like they’d want to hear about taxes,” he tells Jack Burden, his campaign aide and the book’s narrator.

“You tell ‘em too much, “Jack says. “They don’t give a damn about that. Hell, make ‘em cry or make ‘em laugh…Or make ‘em mad. Just stir ‘em up, it doesn’t matter how or why, and they’ll love you and come back for more…Tell ‘em anything, but for Sweet Jesus sake don’t try to improve their minds.”

That’s what Willie Stark did. It is what Donald Trump did so successfully in 2016, and it appears it is what he’s going to try to do in 2020. The campaign vows that Trump will have more to say about his policy agenda in his Thursday night acceptance speech and in a series of speeches during the campaign. I hope that’s true. But I’m not counting on it. Like Willie Stark, Trump’s political future may rest more on his ability to “just stir ‘em up” than with a carefully reasoned and articulated tax policy agenda.

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#325140: Aug 26th 2020 at 1:25:19 PM

Only if Biden goes for trying to bore people with tax details.

Resileafs I actually wanted to be Resileaf Since: Jan, 2019
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
#325141: Aug 26th 2020 at 1:41:38 PM

Releasing the full tax plan in written form is useful, because he's not talking about it to people's faces. The information is just out there, and he can still give bullet point speeches.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325142: Aug 26th 2020 at 1:48:12 PM

Of course, but the point is that most people, on both sides, are not actually all that interested in reading actual tax forms.

This is about accountability, not information. If a journalist can read them and write a nice overview article on it, most voters will be more than content to keep it to that.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#325143: Aug 26th 2020 at 1:48:36 PM

For Biden he needs to put in block capitals who he won't tax,because raising and lowering taxes is deal breaker 80%/90% og voters,thats the feeling I have anyway

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#325145: Aug 26th 2020 at 2:06:16 PM

A part of me wants to say that of course Trump's ratings are up because the RNC is still working through the bowels of the media.

Do not obey in advance.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#325146: Aug 26th 2020 at 2:08:20 PM

Really he's probably getting a bump because of the Convention. I wouldn't worry too much about it unless it turns out to be a really huge bump.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#325147: Aug 26th 2020 at 2:21:49 PM

Sample size of less than 5K people per state. That's not a good sample size to take data off of.

It’s fewer than 5k people spread across all the states, not per state. We also have no idea what the balance is amongst the states, this could be an across the board thing or Trump could have moved a fair bit in one state and not at all in the other ones.

There’s a reason Nate Silver considers it better practise to set your computer on fire than to use a “poll of swing states” as a data point.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#325148: Aug 26th 2020 at 2:45:46 PM

Wait, that was their methodology?

Just disregard the entire poll than.

@Beary, unlikely. Convention bumps still take a week or two to measure.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Aug 26th 2020 at 6:46:33 AM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#325149: Aug 26th 2020 at 3:03:34 PM

Actually it already happened last week, and it is not so much a bump as a recovery from a low period.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Xorn15 Nurse Mordred Attending from R&D Platform, Seychelles Waters Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
Nurse Mordred Attending
#325150: Aug 26th 2020 at 4:16:50 PM

According to a Lincoln Project Republican, many polls are undercounting Trump supporters, citing the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon as well as events 4 years ago.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/513820-lincoln-project-republican-says-polls-undercount-trump-support

Do you guys think they might have a point?


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