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Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

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In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#324001: Aug 16th 2020 at 3:39:45 AM

Robert Trump, the younger brother of President Donald Trump, dead at age 71.

Donald Trump was saddened by the loss, and gave him a heartfelt eulogy, which goes to show that the man can have empathy after all, he is just not good at sharing it for those he does not know personally.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
RainingMetal (Handed A Sword) Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#324002: Aug 16th 2020 at 4:24:23 AM

Already mentioned last page.

ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#324003: Aug 16th 2020 at 4:33:00 AM

Oh, I missed that post.

Edited by Redmess on Aug 16th 2020 at 1:33:35 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#324004: Aug 16th 2020 at 5:03:27 AM

Given the GOP's willingness to break laws and reinterpret them at will, I think its important to flat out arrest the Postmaster and throw him in jail. There needs to be consequences.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#324005: Aug 16th 2020 at 6:12:52 AM

According to a tweet he was golfing yesterday so I'm not exactly sold on Trump being stricken with grief over that loss.

"You can reply to this Message!"
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#324006: Aug 16th 2020 at 6:41:28 AM

Because of how US elections work any model shouldn’t be trying to predict the outcome of 1 election, it should be trying to predict the collective outcome of 51 simultaneous elections. Also it should be producing outcomes, not winners, so a model that said Trump would win nationally by 20 points in 2016 is worse than one that said Hillary would win nationally by 6 points, because the later model’s outcome is closer to what actually happened.

Really, it depends. If you're doing something like the 538 model then you want to predict outcomes, since at that point you're running simulations based on polling data.

For more reductive models, a binary output as to the outcome and being consistent about whether you mean a popular vote victory or an electoral victory is perfectly acceptable, just as long as it's clear what your prediction is—and if it's valid stretching backwards.

Lazlo74 from A tropical hell-hole Since: May, 2018
#324007: Aug 16th 2020 at 7:50:45 AM

From what I can piece together, the states that will be the most fiercely contested battlegrounds for the upcoming elections would be North Carolina, Arizona, Florida. Are there any other states that could potentially become battlegrounds other than the regular Midwestern swing states?

Scaled seeker
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#324008: Aug 16th 2020 at 7:52:36 AM

[up][up][up]Like I said, the man doesn't really give a shit about his family except maybe as extensions of himself.

Edited by M84 on Aug 16th 2020 at 10:52:51 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#324009: Aug 16th 2020 at 8:07:52 AM

In a very good scenario for Biden Georgia, Texas and/or Ohio could be competitive, in a bad one for Biden Nevada, Maine and/or Virginia could be competitive.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#324010: Aug 16th 2020 at 8:09:08 AM

I'm imagine he's a little worried right now because his brother was 72 and he's 74,there's a two year gap between them

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#324011: Aug 16th 2020 at 8:12:51 AM

I believe the swing states are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, some districts in Maine and Nebraska, Florida, Georgia, Arizona. Out there are Nevada, Colorado and Virginia and on the other side Alaska, South Carolina and Texas.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
thok That's Dr. Title, thank you! (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Non-Canon
That's Dr. Title, thank you!
#324012: Aug 16th 2020 at 8:15:38 AM

538 has a concept of a tipping point state (that is, if you rank states in order of percentage vote for the president, this is the state where the electoral college is decided). The tipping point states right now break into a few groups (order by odds of tipping within their group, only counting states with a >1% of being the tipping point state).

1. Midwest: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio

2. Southeast: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia

3. Southwest: Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Texas

4. New Hampshire

That's a fairly reasonable organization of the swing states; there's a few additional states that could be added to each group, but not a fundamentally new group of swings states to consider.

Edited by thok on Aug 16th 2020 at 8:16:58 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#324013: Aug 16th 2020 at 8:48:51 AM

Those loose districts in Maine and Nebraska are in play as well.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#324014: Aug 16th 2020 at 8:50:28 AM

Yes, I imagine his younger brother dying would hit rather close to home.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#324015: Aug 16th 2020 at 8:55:15 AM

As swing states go, Colorado's pretty much locked down for Biden. In 2018, Coloradans voted to fire Republicans from all chambers of our state government, ensuring Democrat control of the Executive and Legislative branches. In addition to this, a legendary former governor revered and beloved by the state is challenging the Republican incumbent for his Senate seat in 2020, and that's sure to drag out some low-info voters to vote up-ticket for Biden too.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 16th 2020 at 8:56:51 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#324016: Aug 16th 2020 at 8:56:32 AM

Trump worked to ensure that the children of his other brother got nothing from their grandfather’s estate, so it’s unclear if he does ascribe any value to family.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#324017: Aug 16th 2020 at 9:01:21 AM

Not to mention how he tried to scam all of his siblings by trying to trick his dementia-ridden father on his deathbed to write a "new" will that would have made Donald the sole heir of Fred Trump's family fortune and leave the rest of his siblings with nothing but dust had it succeeded, only for Fred, properly paranoid and knowing his son all too well, seeing through the scam and refuse to play along with it.

That's the kind of "man" Donald Trump is... a backstabber, of his own siblings, nonetheless.

No surprise.

Edited by TitanJump on Aug 16th 2020 at 6:01:39 PM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#324018: Aug 16th 2020 at 9:05:08 AM

[up][up]I guess as long as they aren't in the way of him gaining more money he's able to pretend to give a shit about family.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#324019: Aug 16th 2020 at 9:06:58 AM

It seem unlikely Fred Trump saw through the plan, considering that he was senile in the end and reportedly manipulated by all his living children to screw the children of his dead son. Much more likely is that the living children of Fred Trump were all trying to disinherit each other, but only managed to succeed when it came to the people with the least access to Fred Trump.

God, what a horrible family.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#324020: Aug 16th 2020 at 9:07:49 AM

Look, plain talk. All the 'humanizing' elements of this come from a WH Statement, which the White House claims Trump dictated, which professed that his brothers death deeply affects him.

I. What else are they gonna say

II. What exactly is there to make us believe it's *meant*, given previous behavior.

This just smacks of a "Trump is finally acting presidential" in another mantle.

"You can reply to this Message!"
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#324021: Aug 16th 2020 at 9:23:11 AM

Yes, Donald Trump has always tried to portray himself as a successful businessman.

However, inheriting 600 million dollars (he always claimed 200), you almost by definition cannot fail.

And he did. Somehow losing it all to debt.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#324022: Aug 16th 2020 at 9:23:16 AM

He's going to be asked about it by reporters and he's going to show like no emotion

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#324023: Aug 16th 2020 at 9:23:20 AM

People really need to stop looking for decency in Donald Trump.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#324025: Aug 16th 2020 at 9:30:27 AM

Yeah well, screw you Erdogan.

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