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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Really, it depends. If you're doing something like the 538 model then you want to predict outcomes, since at that point you're running simulations based on polling data.
For more reductive models, a binary output as to the outcome and being consistent about whether you mean a popular vote victory or an electoral victory is perfectly acceptable, just as long as it's clear what your prediction is—and if it's valid stretching backwards.
From what I can piece together, the states that will be the most fiercely contested battlegrounds for the upcoming elections would be North Carolina, Arizona, Florida. Are there any other states that could potentially become battlegrounds other than the regular Midwestern swing states?
Scaled seekerI believe the swing states are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, some districts in Maine and Nebraska, Florida, Georgia, Arizona. Out there are Nevada, Colorado and Virginia and on the other side Alaska, South Carolina and Texas.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman538 has a concept of a tipping point state (that is, if you rank states in order of percentage vote for the president, this is the state where the electoral college is decided). The tipping point states right now break into a few groups (order by odds of tipping within their group, only counting states with a >1% of being the tipping point state).
1. Midwest: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio
2. Southeast: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia
3. Southwest: Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Texas
4. New Hampshire
That's a fairly reasonable organization of the swing states; there's a few additional states that could be added to each group, but not a fundamentally new group of swings states to consider.
Edited by thok on Aug 16th 2020 at 8:16:58 AM
As swing states go, Colorado's pretty much locked down for Biden. In 2018, Coloradans voted to fire Republicans from all chambers of our state government, ensuring Democrat control of the Executive and Legislative branches. In addition to this, a legendary former governor revered and beloved by the state is challenging the Republican incumbent for his Senate seat in 2020, and that's sure to drag out some low-info voters to vote up-ticket for Biden too.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 16th 2020 at 8:56:51 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.Not to mention how he tried to scam all of his siblings by trying to trick his dementia-ridden father on his deathbed to write a "new" will that would have made Donald the sole heir of Fred Trump's family fortune and leave the rest of his siblings with nothing but dust had it succeeded, only for Fred, properly paranoid and knowing his son all too well, seeing through the scam and refuse to play along with it.
That's the kind of "man" Donald Trump is... a backstabber, of his own siblings, nonetheless.
No surprise.
Edited by TitanJump on Aug 16th 2020 at 6:01:39 PM
It seem unlikely Fred Trump saw through the plan, considering that he was senile in the end and reportedly manipulated by all his living children to screw the children of his dead son. Much more likely is that the living children of Fred Trump were all trying to disinherit each other, but only managed to succeed when it came to the people with the least access to Fred Trump.
God, what a horrible family.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranLook, plain talk. All the 'humanizing' elements of this come from a WH Statement, which the White House claims Trump dictated, which professed that his brothers death deeply affects him.
I. What else are they gonna say
II. What exactly is there to make us believe it's *meant*, given previous behavior.
This just smacks of a "Trump is finally acting presidential" in another mantle.
"You can reply to this Message!"Yes, Donald Trump has always tried to portray himself as a successful businessman.
However, inheriting 600 million dollars (he always claimed 200), you almost by definition cannot fail.
And he did. Somehow losing it all to debt.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.

Robert Trump, the younger brother of President Donald Trump, dead at age 71
.
Donald Trump was saddened by the loss, and gave him a heartfelt eulogy, which goes to show that the man can have empathy after all, he is just not good at sharing it for those he does not know personally.
Hope shines brightest in the darkest times