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CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#323576: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:49:16 AM

@3of4: It's not snake oil persay, it's a vaccine that was rushed to approval without a phase III trial and with an inadequate phase II trial. For vaccines in particular, translation success rates are fairly high. It's around even money going off the data they claim to have that it's safe an effective, and Trump is in a position where betting on odds like that make a certain amount of sense.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:57:55 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#323577: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:49:49 AM

A COVID vaccine will take months, at best, to test and deploy to the point that we get herd immunity going. The election will be over long before that happens.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#323578: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:50:46 AM

[up] True, but the propaganda victory of having a working vaccine that's in the process of ramping up for deployment counts for a lot.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:52:17 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323579: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:51:35 AM

[up][up] Yes, but the point being made is that Trump could advocate for the Russian vaccine, which may or may not be effective.

Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 4:51:55 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#323580: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:53:46 AM

[up] I agree, my point was that it's a gamble that makes sense from Trump's position, you have about a 50% chance of working vaccine several months early. Now granted, the way the FDA works he couldn't rush it to approval like they did in Russia even if he wanted to, it would still have to go through standard trials in the USA.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:54:42 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323581: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:56:24 AM

Probably not, but he could try to bully the FDA into approving it (and he has done similar things before), and could paint the FDA as obstructing a "working" vaccine. He could even paint it as the Dems obstructing the vaccine when they inevitably protest against circumventing stage III tests.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#323582: Aug 12th 2020 at 8:03:55 AM

Trump has missed his chance for a working vaccine. Even if he rushed everything to try to get the Russian vaccine done, it's already just 3 months until the election. He's also already said that it's under control and that there's nothing to worry about.

So his base won't care about a vaccine.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323583: Aug 12th 2020 at 8:05:10 AM

I don't know what makes you so sure about that. Why wouldn't they care? Polling suggests that a lot of them are actually very concerned about the pandemic.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#323584: Aug 12th 2020 at 8:09:33 AM

"Will people trust what they see around them or the magic line the economists tell them is going good". Probably the former where it tends to impinge on their daily life.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#323585: Aug 12th 2020 at 8:13:18 AM

His base won't care about a vaccine, but his base doesn't need a vaccine to vote for him. They're automatic Trump votes. Their opinions don't matter.

The main benefit a vaccine serves for Trump is convincing the centrists. ALWAYS BLUE voters will always vote blue and ALWAYS RED voters will always vote red. There is literally no value in ever trying to appeal to them, regardless of which side you're on. It's centrists, that slim percentage of people that need to be wooed to one side or the other, who decide elections.

They're typically low-info voters with certain personal values or issues that they care very much about, who just kinda poke their heads up out of gopher holes when they hear things like "Trump SOLVED coronavirus" or "Hillary MURDERED Benghazi".

However. As noted, Trump has done so much to sabotage our efforts to combat COVID that it's unlikely he could actually get his hands on a working vaccine. If that were on option, he wouldn't be selling snake oil to try and convince people he did something.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 12th 2020 at 8:16:00 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#323586: Aug 12th 2020 at 8:13:33 AM

Two stories from today's What the Fuck Just Happened Today preview:

A federal judge in New York invalidated rule changes made by the Trump administration that would have allowed individuals and corporations to kill large numbers of birds as long as they could prove the birds weren’t specifically targeted. U.S. District Judge Valerie E. Caproni said there is nothing in the century-old Migratory Bird Treaty Act that indicates that in order for an action to be prohibited, it must be directed specifically at birds. He added: “Nor does the statute prohibit only intentionally killing migratory birds. And it certainly does not say that only ‘some’ kills are prohibited.” Under the Trump administration’s reasoning, a company like BP, which was responsible for the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that killed up to a million birds, would not be liable for punishment under the changes to the law. “It is not only a sin to kill a mockingbird, it is also a crime,” Judge Caproni wrote. (Washington Post)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/08/11/quoting-kill-mockingbird-judge-struck-down-trumps-rollback-historic-law-protecting-birds/

poll/ 40% of respondents blame Democrats in Congress for failing to pass a new COVID-19 relief package before the initial $600 unemployment benefit expired last week. 39% say they blame Trump and Republicans in Congress. 78% of Democrats blame Trump and the GOP, while 19% fault both parties equally. 80% of Republicans blame Democrats, while 11% blame both parties. 40% of Independents blame Democrats, 31% fault the GOP, and 25% hold both parties responsible. (CNBC)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/coronavirus-stimulus-voters-blame-both-parties-for-unemployment-expiration.html

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#323587: Aug 12th 2020 at 8:18:40 AM

I don't know what makes you so sure about that. Why wouldn't they care? Polling suggests that a lot of them are actually very concerned about the pandemic.

You know who is also concerned about a pandemic? Me. I would LOVE for the Putin vaccine to work and I will happily take my chances with it if Donald Trump puts it out because I've been following where it came from along with all the other vaccines. It probably will work just fine because Putin's researchers just stole the information from Oxford.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/russian-hackers-steal-coronavirus-vaccine-uk-minister-cyber-attack

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/us/politics/vaccine-hacking-russia.html

However, this isn't going to improve my opinion of Trump because he had nothing to do with it. It's also after a year of idiocy.

Edit:

And I'd do this despite the fact I've been tested and had Covid-19 then recovered.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Aug 12th 2020 at 8:20:02 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#323588: Aug 12th 2020 at 8:27:40 AM

I mean, I think you're downplaying the problem associated with distributing a vaccine that hasn't been properly tested to the entire country. Like given what vaccines are, one that doesn't work quite right has the potential to make things a hell of a lot worse and that's why thorough testing is important and you shouldn't take one that hasn't been thoroughly tested.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#323589: Aug 12th 2020 at 8:29:13 AM

I mean, I think you're downplaying the problem associated with distributing a vaccine that hasn't been properly tested to the entire country. Like given what vaccines are, one that doesn't work quite right has the potential to make things a hell of a lot worse and that's why thorough testing is important and you shouldn't take one that hasn't been thoroughly tested.

I am 100% aware even though I believe the vaccine will almost certainly work from my studies of the research so far. A friend of mine made a tasteless joke that Putin is doing the largest Phase III trial now.

However, the thing is that Phase III trials have already begun in other places. Putin is also using the same formula. So hopefully the Russian people won't pay the price.

There had been plans to potentially distribute the Oxford vaccine in September if everything went right. It didn't but that was because the sample sizes weren't large enough. Not vaccine failure.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Aug 12th 2020 at 8:31:17 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#323590: Aug 12th 2020 at 9:02:01 AM

I don't think the average low info voter cares about what the stock market says, I doubt they pay much attention to it. They care about their own situation. I'm no economics expert and a lot can change in the 3 months or so until the election, however I'm not sure if there's anything to indicate atm that the economy is going to improve much in the following months. Even assuming the russian vaccine works Trump still has the herculean task of administrating distribution which is going to take a while.

devak They call me.... Prophet Since: Jul, 2019 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
They call me.... Prophet
#323591: Aug 12th 2020 at 9:28:14 AM

Even a 1-in-a-million effect will generate significant problems when you're talking about billions. A vaccine producing an immune response neither proves the response lasts nor that it's enough to stop the virus. But that's where the Russia vaccine is at: we know it produces a response, that's it.

There have been plenty of vaccines that showed immune responses, only for it to be to short to be useful or to create side-effects that were worse than the disease.

Edited by devak on Aug 12th 2020 at 6:30:13 PM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323592: Aug 12th 2020 at 9:42:42 AM

Indeed, the Russians are taking a massive gamble with this vaccine. It could go really well, but it also could end really bad.

I'm not sure why Putin is willing to take such a gamble that could end up backfiring on him and ousting him from office. Perhaps he is just that desperate for a positive story on this.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#323593: Aug 12th 2020 at 10:35:00 AM

Part of the reason is the fact that Putin's regime is crumbling. Covid-19 has done more damage to the Russian government than it has done to the United States. Basically, because Putin did the exact same mistakes that Trump did and he has a reputation for super-competence.

You can't look weak when you're a strongman.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#323594: Aug 12th 2020 at 10:36:21 AM

I've not been under the impression that Putin's reign is anywhere near over. But that is also a subject for another thread.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#323595: Aug 12th 2020 at 10:38:12 AM

He's had massive protests sure,but if you think that means his downfall is soon you will be very disappointed

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#323596: Aug 12th 2020 at 10:41:51 AM

Downfall?

No.

However, enough that he's making...say, a stupid decision to prematurely release a vaccine.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#323597: Aug 12th 2020 at 10:45:41 AM

QAnon is swamping child abuse hotlines and the like with their bogus theory as they are trying to use anti-child abuse things to proselytize.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#323598: Aug 12th 2020 at 10:48:25 AM

[up] What is wrong with these people?!

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#323599: Aug 12th 2020 at 10:48:48 AM

Speaking of which, a Qanon representative who won her primary called Nancy Pelosi a bitch in her acceptance speech.

On the plus side, the Squad sweeped all their primaries and utterly crushed their moderate competition.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#323600: Aug 12th 2020 at 11:03:59 AM

Q Anon is the end result of decades upon decades of the far right inching its way into conservative groups in the U.S. Which is a fertile ground considering few oppose them.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes

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