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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
538 is, however, being a lot more conservative than other models here. Apparently part of the reason they put Trump's chance so high is that there's just a lot of uncertainty here, what with us just not knowing what the COVID situation in two months will be like and stuff like that.
If the election was held today, Biden would win by quite a bit. And if you make the assumption that Biden's gonna win the popular vote, his chances climb to 90%. And really I have a hard time imagining a scenario without massive voter suppression that leads to Trump winning the popular vote; he hasn't exactly spent the last three years winning very many people over.
Way I see it, a Nation that voted for Bush twice and for Trump once, is capable of voting literally anyone in.
I would merely lift an eyebrow and then shrug if somehow, the U.S ended up governed by a democratically elected gerbil's brain hooked to a giant Exxon Mecha.
Then again, most presidents of most nations can look like that from the outside.
It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothesI very quickly read through (glanced at) 538's methodology section, and it looks like they're baking a lot of uncertainty into their model and saying there's a lot they just don't know about how the economic and pandemic situation and changes to voting methods will affect the outcome.
Also, I believe that the 30% in 2016 was at the end of the model just before the election, when things should be just about baked in. This is just at the start of their model, you'd think it would get tighter from here.
EDIT: yeah, pretty much
'd
Edited by PointMaid on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:18:34 AM
The potential for a V shaped economic recovery from the COVID-19 slump and the possibility of one of the phase III vaccines being approved might shift the election more in Trump's favor, even though he doesn't really deserve credit for either.
Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:25:04 AM
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It is a bit more convoluted than that. I mean. By Popular vote's measures, Trump lost.
Gerrymandering, international influence, misinformation, voter suppression, disenchantment in the process (deliberate and not), inpartisan conflict, and still others all took a chunk out of the votes from either side.
And we can cite more and more and more reasons than that as possible things that influenced the vote one way or another.
Edited by Aszur on Aug 12th 2020 at 8:25:10 PM
It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes![]()
He appears to have an electoral college advantage again.
Edit: Honestly, the really scary scenario is the one in which Trump loses narrowly and there's a repeat of 2000 where the supreme court gets involved in settling disputed state level elections. We could go into January 2021 with no president elect, in which case there's a constitutional crisis since there's no provision for this eventuality.
Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:26:50 AM
The stock markets certainly seem to be recovering a bit after Russia announced a vaccine, though someone on CNN rightly noted that there is a gap between the stock market and the actual economy.
I would not be surprised if Trump embraces the Russian vaccine and tries to hock it to Americans as the vaccine now. That could conceivably boost his election chances.
Yes, we've discussed this before. It usually ends in shouting and red posts.
Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 4:31:52 PM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest timesEconomic recovery like that simply isn't likely. Sure, the stock market is back to ignoring everyone, but the job losses aren't going to flip anywhere near so quickly.
I doubt the existence of a vaccine will change much either, since there's going to be no way to mass distribute it before the election and Trump WILL find a way to ruin that too.
Bush also made a great effort to reach out to swing voters who hadn't voted for him in 2000. Trump has continued to double down on his base.
Trump is already attacking Harris, conveniently forgetting he donated to her AG campaign.
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The thing is though, the stock market can create a perception of a recovering economy, even if it is still in bad shape. Will the average uninformed voter be able to tell the difference? Will they trust what they see around them, or what they see on the Dow Jones?
No surprises there, the man turns on former allies like he's on ice skates.
Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 4:50:13 PM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest times

Incidentally the odds for Trump this time around are around 30% again going off of the 538 forecast. I'm not very comfortable with that, because a 30% chance will happen way more frequently than you might think.
, and I don't see much good news for Trump given the COVID-19 situation.
Now, that said, current polls would give Biden a 93% chance of winning
Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:10:18 AM