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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#323551: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:08:30 AM

Incidentally the odds for Trump this time around are around 30% again going off of the 538 forecast. I'm not very comfortable with that, because a 30% chance will happen way more frequently than you might think.


Now, that said, current polls would give Biden a 93% chance of winning, and I don't see much good news for Trump given the COVID-19 situation.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:10:18 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323552: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:11:03 AM

I don't think it is that outlandish to not trust polls too much, though.

[up][up] I think that has more to do with many games just fudging their stats.

Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 4:12:07 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#323553: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:11:47 AM

[up]Nobody is doing that here.

We're just not in a hurry to dismiss polls entirely.

Edited by M84 on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:13:45 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323554: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:12:25 AM

Dude, calm down.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#323555: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:12:57 AM

[up]I just don't know why you insist on treating everyone here like we're a bunch of idiots.

Disgusted, but not surprised
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#323556: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:13:47 AM

@Redmess: Well there's uncertainty in the polls, and they can also change between now and November.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323557: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:14:37 AM

I'm not doing anything of the sort. I'm sorry if it comes off that way. I'm simply speaking my mind in reaction to a post.

And if I'm too autistic to realize that I'm stating the obvious sometimes, I'm sorry for that too. >.>

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#323558: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:15:32 AM

538 is, however, being a lot more conservative than other models here. Apparently part of the reason they put Trump's chance so high is that there's just a lot of uncertainty here, what with us just not knowing what the COVID situation in two months will be like and stuff like that.

If the election was held today, Biden would win by quite a bit. And if you make the assumption that Biden's gonna win the popular vote, his chances climb to 90%. And really I have a hard time imagining a scenario without massive voter suppression that leads to Trump winning the popular vote; he hasn't exactly spent the last three years winning very many people over.

Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#323559: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:17:02 AM

Way I see it, a Nation that voted for Bush twice and for Trump once, is capable of voting literally anyone in.

I would merely lift an eyebrow and then shrug if somehow, the U.S ended up governed by a democratically elected gerbil's brain hooked to a giant Exxon Mecha.

Then again, most presidents of most nations can look like that from the outside.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
PointMaid Since: Jun, 2014
#323560: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:17:04 AM

I very quickly read through (glanced at) 538's methodology section, and it looks like they're baking a lot of uncertainty into their model and saying there's a lot they just don't know about how the economic and pandemic situation and changes to voting methods will affect the outcome.

Also, I believe that the 30% in 2016 was at the end of the model just before the election, when things should be just about baked in. This is just at the start of their model, you'd think it would get tighter from here.

EDIT: yeah, pretty much [nja]'d

Edited by PointMaid on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:18:34 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323561: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:19:36 AM

From what I understand, part of the problem in 2016 was complacency because the polls were so favourable to Clinton, which caused people to either not vote or vote for Trump as a protest vote.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#323562: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:20:44 AM

A lot of factors contributed to HRC losing in 2016. It was a near perfect storm of shit.

Disgusted, but not surprised
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#323563: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:23:26 AM

The potential for a V shaped economic recovery from the COVID-19 slump and the possibility of one of the phase III vaccines being approved might shift the election more in Trump's favor, even though he doesn't really deserve credit for either.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:25:04 AM

Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#323564: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:24:15 AM

[up][up][up]It is a bit more convoluted than that. I mean. By Popular vote's measures, Trump lost.

Gerrymandering, international influence, misinformation, voter suppression, disenchantment in the process (deliberate and not), inpartisan conflict, and still others all took a chunk out of the votes from either side.

And we can cite more and more and more reasons than that as possible things that influenced the vote one way or another.

Edited by Aszur on Aug 12th 2020 at 8:25:10 PM

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#323565: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:25:06 AM

One factor was the Republican dominated senate I think,made it harder to do anything so Obama became more unpopular which meant the Republicans could claim electing Trump would change that and 'drain the swamp'

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#323566: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:25:12 AM

[up][up] He appears to have an electoral college advantage again.

Edit: Honestly, the really scary scenario is the one in which Trump loses narrowly and there's a repeat of 2000 where the supreme court gets involved in settling disputed state level elections. We could go into January 2021 with no president elect, in which case there's a constitutional crisis since there's no provision for this eventuality.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:26:50 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323567: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:29:45 AM

The stock markets certainly seem to be recovering a bit after Russia announced a vaccine, though someone on CNN rightly noted that there is a gap between the stock market and the actual economy.

I would not be surprised if Trump embraces the Russian vaccine and tries to hock it to Americans as the vaccine now. That could conceivably boost his election chances.

[up] Yes, we've discussed this before. It usually ends in shouting and red posts.

Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 4:31:52 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#323568: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:35:17 AM

[up]until people start dying from complications because the Russian vaccine is most likely snake oil

"You can reply to this Message!"
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#323569: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:41:01 AM

Note that the 'nation' voted for Bush once and Trump zero times. Both lost the popular vote, but we have a very stupid system of selecting a President

Edited by Lightysnake on Aug 12th 2020 at 7:45:39 AM

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323570: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:44:08 AM

Yes, but the question is, how quickly will we find that out?

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#323571: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:45:10 AM

FWIW, Bush 43 won the popular vote in 2004.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#323572: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:45:27 AM

Economic recovery like that simply isn't likely. Sure, the stock market is back to ignoring everyone, but the job losses aren't going to flip anywhere near so quickly.

I doubt the existence of a vaccine will change much either, since there's going to be no way to mass distribute it before the election and Trump WILL find a way to ruin that too.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#323573: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:46:16 AM

Yeah. He lost popular in 2000 but rode the 9/11 high of ultra patriotism into reelection.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#323574: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:48:48 AM

Bush also made a great effort to reach out to swing voters who hadn't voted for him in 2000. Trump has continued to double down on his base.

Trump is already attacking Harris, conveniently forgetting he donated to her AG campaign.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323575: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:48:53 AM

[up][up][up] The thing is though, the stock market can create a perception of a recovering economy, even if it is still in bad shape. Will the average uninformed voter be able to tell the difference? Will they trust what they see around them, or what they see on the Dow Jones?

[up] No surprises there, the man turns on former allies like he's on ice skates.

Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 4:50:13 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times

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