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Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#323526: Aug 12th 2020 at 3:49:55 AM

I’m gonna reply in the military thread.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323527: Aug 12th 2020 at 4:53:02 AM

Trump has said that the Spanish Flu ended World War II in 1917 because all the soldiers got sick.

I honestly can't tell any more if he is just confused about his history, or just trolling us. grin

Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 2:01:16 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#323528: Aug 12th 2020 at 4:53:37 AM

It looks like Harris's selection has caused chaos in the ... Trump campaign. Is it possible that this was part of the thinking in picking Harris?

The folks at 538 have published their election forecast.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Euodiachloris Since: Oct, 2010
#323529: Aug 12th 2020 at 5:02:31 AM

Having read [up]...

How can any Republican seriously consider touting Biden-Harris as "inept", particularly alongside the stellar performance in blisteringly awful that Trump-Pence have given?

Imca (Veteran)
#323530: Aug 12th 2020 at 5:03:01 AM

TBH when I heard the announcment I actualy kind of figured that was why he chose her.

Defund the police is pretty unpopular with moderates, and running attack adds as painting Biden as anti-police probably would have been there best bet... even if he isn't actually so.

...

But by choosing a former prosecutor, well he basically just took there potential best attack avenue out of play... so they are right back to having nothing.

Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323531: Aug 12th 2020 at 5:03:29 AM

I don't think so, really. Biden just wants a good running mate that he thinks will win him the election. Sowing chaos in the opposing team seems like an unlikely goal, or expectation for that matter. It's not like the opposing party couldn't see it coming.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#323532: Aug 12th 2020 at 5:10:50 AM

> Is it possible that this was part of the thinking in picking Harris?

Absolutely,the choice boils down who Biden wants,but he'll have plenty of people advising him,we call this a calculated move

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Ayasugi Since: Oct, 2010
#323533: Aug 12th 2020 at 5:12:05 AM

[up][up][up][up] Current Republican strategy is just to insist that whatever they say is true until everyone accepts it, that's how.

Edited by Ayasugi on Aug 12th 2020 at 8:13:32 AM

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#323534: Aug 12th 2020 at 5:27:28 AM

And to advertise poison to their base while claiming it actually makes you live longer, but that's a separate topic.

i'm tired, my friend
Lazlo74 from A tropical hell-hole Since: May, 2018
#323535: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:21:11 AM

Do you guys think that Biden's prospects of winning the election might be inflated?

What got me worried is how divided the DNC is. They have a penchant for shooting themselves in the foot, and remember how Hillary managed to lose the election through electoral votes even though she won the popular vote? I'm having thoughts that the voter turnout for the Democratic base might be even lower than last time considering how Biden and Harris are not the ideal candidates, and a decisive win in both popular and electoral count is more important than ever.

Scaled seeker
thok That's Dr. Title, thank you! (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Non-Canon
That's Dr. Title, thank you!
#323536: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:22:33 AM

Honestly the best argument for Kamala Harris as the pick is that she's not a surprising pick; it reinforces Biden's core message of a return to stability.

It also says something about the incompetence of the Trump campaign that they don't have messaging ready for a VP pick that's had a high chance of happening for months. (Granted it doesn't really say anything new about their incompetence, but just reinforces the already existing issues.)

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#323537: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:28:05 AM

Biden has been neck and neck or leading Trump in all the swing states. Polls may change between now and November, but unless something comes up indicating the polls are using a seriously flawed methodology I see no reason to doubt Biden's current lead.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#323538: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:30:01 AM

And hasn't the DNC largely closed ranks since Super Tuesday?

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Khudzlin Since: Nov, 2013
#323539: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:30:33 AM

[up][up][up][up] Not really. Biden has a bigger polling lead on Trump than Clinton ever did. The former has shown how awful he truly is and Biden isn't handicapped by sexism. The real risk is voter suppression.

Edited by Khudzlin on Aug 12th 2020 at 3:30:48 PM

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#323540: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:31:22 AM

Yeah, this isn't 2016. There are some soreheads like there always are, but the Democrats are as united as I've ever seen them.

As [up] this says, the major risk is people being unable to vote.

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 12th 2020 at 9:33:00 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323541: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:47:18 AM

I still think we should not put all our trust in the polls like people did in 2016, when they felt certain Clinton would win. Complacency due to seemingly unshakeable polls is the biggest danger to losing an election.

The main thing is, you should vote, even if you think Biden's election is as good as guaranteed, because if don't vote out of confidence, that guarantee evaporates.

As for Biden's pick, I really doubt that it was specifically to hamper Trump's campaign in this way. It's not like this is a surprise move. Trump's campaign could have seen this pick coming months ahead. If it sparked chaos, it is due to their own incompetence, not due to who exactly was picked.

Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 3:50:09 PM

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#323542: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:48:38 AM

[up]Nobody's doing that. Nobody here's looking at any one poll and thinks Biden's got in the bag. Parable for one has been pointing to the trend of polls so far. Others look at the 538 poll aggregates.

And no one here is even considering using good polls as an excuse to not vote.

You're kind of preaching to the choir here.

Edited by M84 on Aug 12th 2020 at 9:49:03 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Redmess Redmess from Netherlands Since: Feb, 2014
Redmess
#323543: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:49:47 AM

I was referring to posts like Kudzin's above.

Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
NoName999 Since: May, 2011
#323544: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:50:11 AM

God, more high schools need to have statistics courses.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#323545: Aug 12th 2020 at 6:51:41 AM

[up][up]All Khudzlin did was point out the simple fact that Biden's polling is better than HRC's was back in 2016. Pointing to HRC's loss in 2016 as proof that we shouldn't trust polls at all is thus erroneous.

And Khudzlin didn't suggest anyone not vote.

Edited by M84 on Aug 12th 2020 at 9:51:43 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#323546: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:01:38 AM

Especially since Clinton's loss was within the poll's predictions, if I'm remembering correctly.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#323547: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:03:24 AM

[up]They were. 538 even gave Trump a 30% chance of winning.

No Name's suggestion that statistics should be covered in high school is an apt one.

Edited by M84 on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:03:39 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Clarste One Winged Egret Since: Jun, 2009 Relationship Status: Non-Canon
One Winged Egret
#323548: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:03:25 AM

It was like 66-33 on 538, if I remember correctly. Which in my years of playing strategy games is not much better than a coinflip.

Aszur A nice butterfly from Pagliacci's Since: Apr, 2014 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
A nice butterfly
#323549: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:07:02 AM

Heck, for anyone familiar with X Com, that might as well be a guaranteed win for Trump.

It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes
Reflextion from a post-sanity world (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: What's love got to do with it?
#323550: Aug 12th 2020 at 7:07:05 AM

If I have learned anything from my years of gaming, it's that any listed odds other than "100%" or "0%" are 50/50, and anyone trying to tell you otherwise is a dirty f*cking liar.

Someone did tell me life was going to be this way.

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