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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
It looks like Harris's selection has caused chaos in the ... Trump campaign
. Is it possible that this was part of the thinking in picking Harris?
The folks at 538 have published their election forecast
.
TBH when I heard the announcment I actualy kind of figured that was why he chose her.
Defund the police is pretty unpopular with moderates, and running attack adds as painting Biden as anti-police probably would have been there best bet... even if he isn't actually so.
...
But by choosing a former prosecutor, well he basically just took there potential best attack avenue out of play... so they are right back to having nothing.
Do you guys think that Biden's prospects of winning the election might be inflated?
What got me worried is how divided the DNC is. They have a penchant for shooting themselves in the foot, and remember how Hillary managed to lose the election through electoral votes even though she won the popular vote? I'm having thoughts that the voter turnout for the Democratic base might be even lower than last time considering how Biden and Harris are not the ideal candidates, and a decisive win in both popular and electoral count is more important than ever.
Scaled seekerHonestly the best argument for Kamala Harris as the pick is that she's not a surprising pick; it reinforces Biden's core message of a return to stability.
It also says something about the incompetence of the Trump campaign that they don't have messaging ready for a VP pick that's had a high chance of happening for months. (Granted it doesn't really say anything new about their incompetence, but just reinforces the already existing issues.)
Yeah, this isn't 2016. There are some soreheads like there always are, but the Democrats are as united as I've ever seen them.
As
this says, the major risk is people being unable to vote.
Edited by Fighteer on Aug 12th 2020 at 9:33:00 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"I still think we should not put all our trust in the polls like people did in 2016, when they felt certain Clinton would win. Complacency due to seemingly unshakeable polls is the biggest danger to losing an election.
The main thing is, you should vote, even if you think Biden's election is as good as guaranteed, because if don't vote out of confidence, that guarantee evaporates.
As for Biden's pick, I really doubt that it was specifically to hamper Trump's campaign in this way. It's not like this is a surprise move. Trump's campaign could have seen this pick coming months ahead. If it sparked chaos, it is due to their own incompetence, not due to who exactly was picked.
Edited by Redmess on Aug 12th 2020 at 3:50:09 PM
Hope shines brightest in the darkest times
Nobody's doing that. Nobody here's looking at any one poll and thinks Biden's got in the bag. Parable for one has been pointing to the trend of polls so far. Others look at the 538 poll aggregates.
And no one here is even considering using good polls as an excuse to not vote.
You're kind of preaching to the choir here.
Edited by M84 on Aug 12th 2020 at 9:49:03 PM
Disgusted, but not surprised![]()
All Khudzlin did was point out the simple fact that Biden's polling is better than HRC's was back in 2016. Pointing to HRC's loss in 2016 as proof that we shouldn't trust polls at all is thus erroneous.
And Khudzlin didn't suggest anyone not vote.
Edited by M84 on Aug 12th 2020 at 9:51:43 PM
Disgusted, but not surprised
They were. 538 even gave Trump a 30% chance of winning.
No Name's suggestion that statistics should be covered in high school is an apt one.
Edited by M84 on Aug 12th 2020 at 10:03:39 PM
Disgusted, but not surprised

I’m gonna reply in the military thread.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran