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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#323077: Aug 9th 2020 at 9:32:22 PM

That's a lead among likely voters, which makes it more promising.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#323078: Aug 9th 2020 at 9:33:21 PM

In the end, while winning a few southern states and Arizona would certainly be nice, retaking the Midwest is what gets Biden to 270.

Thus, this is excellent news.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#323079: Aug 9th 2020 at 9:52:27 PM

The article also notes that Trump won those states in 2016 by less than 1%.

Disgusted, but not surprised
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#323080: Aug 9th 2020 at 9:59:45 PM

Still within margin of error for Trump (the polls have up to a 7% margin of error), but it's not good news for him, certainly.

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#323081: Aug 9th 2020 at 10:15:18 PM

That's not exactly true- most polls have closer to 3% margin of error. But the margin of error isn't what important at the moment, it's the way the race could shift over the next two and half months. Which is probably where you got that 7% figure from; that's the average amount a race can shift over the course of the campaign.

But at that point it's important to note that a 6% is a 2-point shift in Trump's favour from June; it was around 8% then. So taking all of 7% potential shift and applying it in Trump's favour still leaves Biden with a 1% lead.

Edited by Gilphon on Aug 9th 2020 at 1:17:01 PM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#323082: Aug 9th 2020 at 10:35:57 PM

Any poll with a margin of error a high as 7% is probably questionable, methodology wise.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#323083: Aug 9th 2020 at 10:39:45 PM

it's unclear what they meant. Maybe they mean that it's a 3-7% margin for Biden? Poor wording in the article, at least.

nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#323084: Aug 9th 2020 at 11:22:26 PM

I think the MOE for that poll is +/-3.7%?

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#323085: Aug 9th 2020 at 11:36:22 PM

I thought it was 3-7%

I may have very badly misread it. [lol]

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#323086: Aug 9th 2020 at 11:46:35 PM

f they lose every seat up for grabs in the Senate, their party will pretty much be dead.

No, it'll be a zombie. Attempts to reform the Republicans will go nowhere as long as the majority of the Republican Party base are assholes - they won't change, they'll keep supporting the nuttiest of the nutty and kill any air that moderate conservatives might find in the party.

Until their numbers fade into irrelevance, the center-right will have to move to the Democratic side.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#323087: Aug 10th 2020 at 12:16:44 AM

Back on the last page, I am minded to agree with Redmess that the behaviour of the school is concerning. The photos I have seen did not show any faces so privacy concerns do not apply, and if memory serves it wouldn't be the first time that Georgia's schools have been caught exceeding their authority.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#323088: Aug 10th 2020 at 12:21:45 AM

I thought it was 3-7%

I may have very badly misread it.

You did and you didn’t.

See the margin of error applies to both sets of results individually (the Trump vote and the Biden vote), so a Mo E of 3.7 means that two full errors in Trump’s favour would change the result by about 7.4%.

There’s a reason it’s good to stick to polling averages.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#323089: Aug 10th 2020 at 12:25:04 AM

Or at least a reason for poll reporting to be clear about what it means.

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#323090: Aug 10th 2020 at 12:28:54 AM

Does anyone think we're going to get presidential debates for this election? Maybe my memory of past elections is wrong, or my sense of time is permanently warped, but I could have sworn that the past elections had one debate by now.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#323091: Aug 10th 2020 at 12:31:08 AM

Debates are scheduled like normal for this election, first one in end of September and the other two follow shortly after, same as normal.

I’m not convinced Trump will do all three, one hard question from Biden and he might storm out and refuse to attend the other debates.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
nova92 Since: Apr, 2020
#323092: Aug 10th 2020 at 12:32:37 AM

Previous debates took place late Sept-early Oct.

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#323093: Aug 10th 2020 at 12:44:15 AM

It would be a glorious disaster if Trump stormed out of the debates.

Do not obey in advance.
Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#323094: Aug 10th 2020 at 1:57:28 AM

So it's starting to look like the USPS fuckery is ramping up now.

"Yup. That tasted purple."
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#323095: Aug 10th 2020 at 2:35:12 AM

I'm seeing a video about all the things Trump said and then denied about Covid on twitter and a part of me wonders if they could just give Biden a smartphone with a suitable playlist and good speakers for the debate.

"You can reply to this Message!"
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#323096: Aug 10th 2020 at 3:37:45 AM

Trump's bid to paint Biden as weak on crime is not off to a good start.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
WoodyAlien3rd from Persimmon Land (Italy) Since: Oct, 2015 Relationship Status: Omelette du fromage~
#323097: Aug 10th 2020 at 4:03:02 AM

8 Big Reasons Election Day 2020 Could Be a Disaster

I admit I haven't read all the article, since it's extremely long and technical, but it raises some interesting points for people like me who don't know much about voting in the US. However the first paragraph already put me on alert, because I didn't know that the voting procedure was full of so many problems and the mere act of voting could be so difficult.

"Effective Altruism" is just another bunch of horsesh*t.
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#323098: Aug 10th 2020 at 4:09:50 AM

Clickbaity, especially as they compare party internal primaries to official elections.

"You can reply to this Message!"
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#323099: Aug 10th 2020 at 4:28:11 AM

Not clickbait, as it's not clear why that distinction would make a difference.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#323100: Aug 10th 2020 at 4:33:46 AM

Not clicky baity,just really long and feels verbose (full confession,I tend to skim read long articles owing to a short attention span)

have a listen and have a link to my discord server

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