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TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#291301: Sep 30th 2019 at 8:37:52 PM

So, does anybody else see as the likely outcome if Trump gets impeached (not necessarily removed), 4 years of a Democrat held back by Republicans, followed by a Repub who's even worse than Trump?

Given the way that US politics has gone since... oh, lets say, 1994, I see no reason not to believe that Republicans will try every dirty trick to hamstring Democrats, that the right wing news bubble will get more toxic and delusional, and that the next set of Republicans to come to the forefront won't be more brazen and worse than the last.

Just gotta be prepared for it and able to fight back.

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#291302: Sep 30th 2019 at 8:55:27 PM

So, does anybody else see as the likely outcome if Trump gets impeached (not necessarily removed), 4 years of a Democrat held back by Republicans, followed by a Repub who's even worse than Trump?

It's impossible to say how likely this is or isn't. Mostly because it's actually involving two different questions.

Q1: Can a Democratic President be held back by Republicans for at least four years?

A: Absolutely, that simply requires Democrats either not taking the Senate or being weak enough not to abolish the filibuster. But with Trump's weakness as a candidate and the ongoing impeachment, I think the Senate could absolutely be taken. Not removing the filibuster is a harder thing to guess what, I think it's more likely to be removed then not because when the Dems take the Senate and we need to take action on Climate Change there will be extraordinary pressure to get them to do something. So it could happen.

Q2: Which the Democratic President last a single term post-Trump succesful impeachment?

A: Highly unlikely, if Trump is discredited enough to result in their victory then it's highly unlikely that whatever replacement they can get would be able to stop the Dem from winning. Obstruction is more than possible but a single term victor in 2020 is significantly less so. Trump is weak enough to overcome incumbency advantage, I see no evidence that the person who beats him in 2020 would be comparably weak.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 30th 2019 at 9:00:42 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#291303: Sep 30th 2019 at 11:38:19 PM

I think (unlikely) hypotheticals about impeachment are better off in the impeachment thread.

Otherwise, x-posting from the crimes thread as New York Times considered this front page worthy and politics is part of the issue. Note that by their own statements they include images although I didn't see any:

The Internet Is Overrun With Images of Child Sexual Abuse. What Went Wrong? Imma not quote the whole article as it is fairly long but the gist is that videos and images depicting child abuse are becoming way more common on the Internet than they used to be and that law enforcement is struggling to contain their spread.

Apparently the root problems are technological advances which make it easier for creeps to spread their stuff, the lack of money and technology for law enforcement to contain them and a perception by the public (?) that "child pornography" is much more innocuous (e.g children sending photos of themselves) than this stuff.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
KnightofLsama Since: Sep, 2010
#291304: Oct 1st 2019 at 4:21:30 AM

Source please, since Australia is even bigger then Ukraine.

Non-paywalled Australian source on the story. Sorry about the delay in the reply, I work an odd shift, there's a big time zone difference and this thread moves fast.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#291305: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:02:36 AM

I'm not sure it's possible to be worse than Trump unless they elect President Clark, Palpatine, or Lex Luthor.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#291306: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:04:13 AM

It's entirely possible. They could nominate an authoritarian that's actually good at it.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Reflextion from a post-sanity world (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: What's love got to do with it?
#291307: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:04:35 AM

I wasn't sure it was possible to elect a president worse than George W. Bush, but here we are.

Someone did tell me life was going to be this way.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#291308: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:06:58 AM

It can always get worse.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#291309: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:13:08 AM

It swings between "It's gets better/It gets worse.Look at how after Bush came Obama,then came Trump,the next president will be better then Trump but the one after them will be worse ect

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#291310: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:35:16 AM

re: McConnell saying that he would hold an impeachment vote in the Senate — why wouldn't he? It would never pass. It's in his political best interests to hold a cursory trial, vote as quickly as possible, have the vote fail to convict, and then say "see? No conviction, therefore he's innocent. That's totally how that works!"

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#291311: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:37:13 AM

The problem is that there's noise among Senate Republicans that some might vote to convict. It could happen. McConnell should, as you say, try to rush a trial before too many of his own people defect. That can't happen until the House votes to impeach, so ironically it is in Democrats' interests to make the proceedings as thorough as possible.

The more Republicans rage and fume and try to Chewbacca the process, the worse it gets for them.

Edited by Fighteer on Oct 1st 2019 at 9:38:57 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#291312: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:38:13 AM

[up][up] "Just look at OJ Simpson! Or Casey Anthony!"

[up]Though isn't the Impeachment Inquiry going at a fast enough pace the GOP are having trouble organizing a response?

Edited by sgamer82 on Oct 1st 2019 at 7:40:42 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#291313: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:39:21 AM

Any defections would have a huge impact, because it would make the attempt to remove Trump bipartisan.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#291314: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:49:05 AM

The Internet Is Overrun With Images of Child Sexual Abuse. What Went Wrong? Imma not quote the whole article as it is fairly long but the gist is that videos and images depicting child abuse are becoming way more common on the Internet than they used to be and that law enforcement is struggling to contain their spread. Apparently the root problems are technological advances which make it easier for creeps to spread their stuff, the lack of money and technology for law enforcement to contain them and a perception by the public (?) that "child pornography" is much more innocuous (e.g children sending photos of themselves) than this stuff.
This is tangentially related, but last year I attended a seminar given by a local police officer who talked about the (sadly) increasing prevalence of human trafficking. One of the ways they investigated trafficking was to lurk on Backdoor and other seedy sites to see who they could catch in the act. The unit that handles this surveillance was originally very small, but they quickly realized they needed FAR more manpower and now they have triple the team just to keep up with the ever increasing activity on those types of sites... and even THAT'S not enough.

So unfortunately this news doesn't surprise me. It's really depressing.

Edited by speedyboris on Oct 1st 2019 at 6:49:55 AM

DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#291315: Oct 1st 2019 at 6:49:52 AM

Also, the Senate can't rush the trial; they simply act as the Jury. It's the House members that actually hold the trial, or at least the Prosecution. So they'd be at the whim of the Democrats who are prosecuting Trump, and if the Defense (which in the case would be Rudy Giuliani) doesn't give a good or proper one, then Trump could be in serious trouble, especially if the Democrats can give an A Game Prosecution.

tricksterson Never Trust from Behind you with an icepick Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Never Trust
#291316: Oct 1st 2019 at 8:29:44 AM

Wait didn't they subpoena Giuliani? How can he be the defense attorney and a witness?

Trump delenda est
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#291317: Oct 1st 2019 at 8:33:20 AM

[up] They did, but from what I've read, if Trump is impeached he uses his own personal Lawyer, who is currently Giuliani. Of course, if Giuliani is arrested or disbarred, then Trump would have to use another lawyer. Considering the last two lawyers Trump has had, though...

Edited by DingoWalley1 on Oct 1st 2019 at 11:34:40 AM

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#291318: Oct 1st 2019 at 8:36:32 AM

> How can he be the defense attorney and a witness?

Obviously when he's acting as a witness he can't act as a defense attorney unless the court permits him to,that's how I understand it anyway

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
SeptimusHeap MOD from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#291319: Oct 1st 2019 at 9:14:48 AM

Please use the impeachment thread linked in the header for further posts on the impeachment process.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#291320: Oct 1st 2019 at 9:17:15 AM

So Trump just congratulated China on 70 years of communist rule. Even some GOP-ers are calling him out for being incredibly tone deaf at best and praising bad regimes at worst.

I think it's a little from column A and B, since we all know how much he idolizes dictators.

danime91 Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#291321: Oct 1st 2019 at 9:40:40 AM

And of course the cultist crowd are still trying to spin or deflect this obvious faux pas. It's amazing what they'll accept as long as it's Trump doing it.

DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#291322: Oct 1st 2019 at 9:42:02 AM

You know, Trump's adoration for Xi probably explains why some of the tankies I had the displeasure of dealing with seem to either not mind or actually like him.

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
TitanJump Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Singularity
#291323: Oct 1st 2019 at 9:43:44 AM

[up][up][up] Well, this is a guy who asked a survivor of ISIS' violence "where are they now" in regards to her family, which she just had told him had all been brutally murdered by ISIS, in person, right next to him.

Not to mention congratulating Poland for the anniversary day when Nazi-Germany invaded it and set off World War 2...

I'm doubting he have even read a single history book in his entire life to understand the gravity of these things...

Edited by TitanJump on Oct 1st 2019 at 6:43:54 PM

Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#291324: Oct 1st 2019 at 10:07:39 AM

I just love moments like this, when oh-so-principled leaders show how willing they are to completely throw away said principles the moment it suits their power play.

Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
KazuyaProta Shin Megami Tensei IV from A Industrial Farm Since: Jan, 2015 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Shin Megami Tensei IV
#291325: Oct 1st 2019 at 10:19:28 AM

Trump don't even try to pretend that he means well tho.

Watch me destroying my country

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