Nov 2023 Mod notice:
There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.
If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations
and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines
before posting here.
Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.
If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules
when posting here.
In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.
Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
So all of Trump's ranting about his impeachment causing a new Civil War is simply parroting talking points from the Russian troll farms
. Even his insults aren't original.
Devil's advocate here: Or it could be that Biden realizes he doesn't have the same savvy and appeal Obama did. Biden's biggest followers are still older, better off voters who just want things to go back to normal. (For example, politics to go back to getting eye rolls and a "There goes old uncle Al again" at the holiday dinners instead of life and death shouting matches that turn into family members refusing to speak to each other anymore.)
Collins was reelected in 2018 by the skin of his teeth, (there was a difference of about 1,000 votes out of almost 300,000 cast, IIRC) before that the district had previously been firmly Republican, Trump won it by 25% or so and Collins got almost 70% of the vote.
Also, the last Democrat who won the district did so in a special election. (Trivia: said candidate is Kathy Hochul, now the Lt. Governor of NY.) It should be interesting to see what happens with this district from here on out.
Meanwhile another Republican Rep retires:
In a statement, the 13-term lawmaker, who represents one of the most heavily Republican districts in the country, said that “ ‘for everything there is a season,’ and I believe that the time has come for a change.”
If he had sought and won reelection, Thornberry, 61, was set to lose his perch as the top Republican on Armed Services because of term limits that the House GOP imposes, restricting its members to three terms as chairmen or ranking member of a committee.
Democrats do not have a similar requirement.
...
In 2018, Thornberry was reelected with nearly 82 percent of the vote, nearly 65 points ahead of his Democratic challenger. President Trump carried the district by about 63 points over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
Since President Trump’s inauguration, a Washington Post analysis shows, nearly 40 percent of the 241 Republicans who were in office in January 2017 are gone or leaving because of election losses, retirements including former House speaker Paul D. Ryan (Wis.).
Thornberry seems to represent a district as deeply red as you get, even in Texas, (one corner of it includes some area not too far outside the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but aside from that it's a lot of countryside along the Texas-Oklahoma border) so this retirement is pretty damn unlikely to give Democrats a chance for a surprise seat pickup. However, the more of these retirements there are, the more likely it is that Democrats will break through somewhere they wouldn't normally have a chance. And while I do still think it's going to take another couple of cycles before making Texas blue, or even purple has a chance at coming true, more retirement among Republicans and more unpopular Republicans (like Cruz) helps it along.
That said, I do worry about what the next generation of Republican will be like that replaces veterans like Thornberry. Right now, I can't help but think the people most fired up to run on the Republican side are the hardcore Trumpists and proto-fascists, not the moderates and reasonable ones.
Edited by TheWanderer on Sep 30th 2019 at 2:39:20 PM
| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |When has the notional front-runner ever flat dropped out before the primaries absent some kind of scandal or personal emergency?
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Honestly, I think that had more to do with Privilege than anything else. I don't know if it's possible to go back to that.
I hear it from the Right all the time. "Why can't you just accept that different people have different beliefs, but we all need to make nice with one another?" Because your belief system is literally trying to kill my family. In multiple ways, in fact.
This is not like thinking that Batman can totally beat up Spider-Man. This is about thinking that some people deserve to die merely for existing. That other people should be arrested and banished from the country for having different colored skin. That literally destroying the world is a great idea. In my book, that's called an irreconcilable difference. If you cannot tell me to my face that you respect my family's right to exist, you're not welcome in my house.
Political disengagement was a mistake born of ignorance, and we are now reaping the consequences for that mistake. It was not some holy time that we need to return to.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Sep 30th 2019 at 12:43:14 PM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.@Ultimatum: It seems more like he's focusing on his older fanbase. He should try Facebook tho
Watch me destroying my countryIf you cannot tell me to my face that you respect my family's right to exist, you're not welcome in my house.
And yeah, barring a massive scandal or another personal/family health crisis (which I hope doesn't happen, the Bidens have gone through enough lately), Biden will stay in until at least Super Tuesday. His numbers are stalling and Warren is breathing down his neck, but he's far from out.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.I hear it from the Right all the time. "Why can't you just accept that different people have different beliefs, but we all need to make nice with one another?" Because your belief system is literally trying to kill my family. In multiple ways, in fact.
This is not like thinking that Batman can totally beat up Spider-Man. This is about thinking that some people deserve to die merely for existing. That other people should be arrested and banished from the country for having different colored skin. That literally destroying the world is a great idea. In my book, that's called an irreconcilable difference. If you cannot tell me to my face that you respect my family's right to exist, you're not welcome in my house.
Political disengagement was a mistake born of ignorance, and we are now reaping the consequences for that mistake. It was not some holy time that we need to return to.
Oh, agreed 100%, especially with the section that I bolded. However, especially with Boomers, there's a huge group of voters who are really, really, set on aggressively seeing both sides of all political conflict as really being the same, and whose fondest wish is to be able to leave everything regarding politics and the direction of the country to other people and never be forced to get involved.
The people who do that but still vote in presidential elections and the people who shrug and say "Well, things worked for me, I don't see why we have to make big, scary changes like Warren, Sanders, and AOC say" are among Biden's biggest, most devoted supporters.
They're also less likely to be getting their news off websites like Vox, Axios, dailybeast, etc., which is why I argued, (maybe wrongly) that Biden might see online ads as not worth a big investment.
| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |Does it feel like Biden may just be getting bad advice? Surely he's got a political team working for him and feeding him both polling information and strategic advice. One of the things that Obama was (rightly) accused of was surrounding himself with an inner circle of people he particularly trusted and shutting out external criticism, even when it was valid.
Or is it that Biden is so sure in his convictions about how he will win the election that he isn't listening to his advisers?
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"It might be. I think Wanderer's pegged it; Biden probably doesn't see the value in trying to reach out to a demographic that absolutely will not support him: the youth vote, which is primarily who online ads are aimed at.
Especially since young people historically don't turn out anyway when push comes to shove. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are very popular with the young, but they're going to be fighting an uphill battle to get those people to actually show up and fill out ballots for them. Biden would have to not only convince them to vote for him, but then do the same thing: spend time and energy trying to get them to actually show up.
He and/or his advisors may have done the political calculus and decided that it's not worth it; that his resources can be better spent courting the older, more reliable demographics that are already leaning his direction.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Sep 30th 2019 at 1:21:48 PM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.Wanting "things to go back to normal" is certainly a position mostly borne of privilege, but unfortunately a lot of people just don't really care much about politics and just don't want to be in an uncomfortable situation where people all seem to hate each other. Logical arguments and emotional appeals don't really work if someone just doesn't care. I don't think there's much that can be done about that in the short term.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Sep 30th 2019 at 3:25:21 PM
I pay for a Youtube Premium subscription so I don't have to see ads at all. Who wins, then?
Seriously, though, I ignore political ads on general principle because they aren't talking to me. I educate myself about politics directly. Those ads are trying to reach uneducated and/or undecided voters, and I'm neither.
Edited by Fighteer on Sep 30th 2019 at 3:38:15 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"They're intended to speak to someone, or nobody would bother with them.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"...
Biden's voters are among the most loyal Democrats that I have met. They're angry at Biden and Warren for what they perceive as petty infighting when the goal is to defeat Trump as soon as possible.
They dislike Biden and Warren's plans because they see them as ineffective and wasterful. Not because they think that they're evil.
Watch me destroying my countryPersonally, my favorite parody ad is this:
Though I like it mostly because it's a sort of affectionate parody and not too cynical. Also it's a good example of actually making fun of politicians in general (rather than a specific party) in a way that's relatively apolitical, yet doesn't just rely on their status as acceptable targets.
Too many jokes about politicians don't say anything specific too politicians, the punchline is that politicians are evil, stupid, etc. They can be used for any individual the speaker hates interchangeably. This video works because its jokes really are politician-specific and wouldn't work for anyone.
Leviticus 19:34

His district (the NY 27th) has a R+11 rating according to Cook. I doubt it will flip, but its not impossible.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.