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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Saw an interesting Twitter thread
about voter flipping vs. voter turnout as a predictor of election results. Seems like some polling quirks are more consistent with the former view than the latter.
Incidentally, I am expecting a Republican win in that North Carolina district, albeit by a reduced margin.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanIf anyone needs a laugh, here’s a spectacular Warren dunk.
Democratic primary voters don't want to hear "committed to fixing capitalism" from someone who identifies as a progressive, they want to hear "Wall Street is going to be punished!"
That's a pretty disingenuous way to describe the article.
What it actually says is that they consider her slightly more palatable then Sanders, and in 2016 they strongly lobbied against Clinton picking her as a VP. If Sanders weren't here you can bet they wouldn't tolerate her. Heck, the end of the article specifically mentions that some of them will just sit out of voting if it's Trump vs Warren.
So no, it's not posturing.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Sep 10th 2019 at 4:57:40 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangAs far as the NRA, unless there’s hard proof of them providing materiel support to terrorists, (equipment, training, personnel, or technical advice) labeling them terrorists is only going to backfire. Being ideologically repulsive is not actually a crime, as it turns out.
They should have sent a poet.So the elections are closed in North Carolina's District 3 and 9; it appears that Republican Greg Murphy will hold onto District 3. However, Democrat Dan McCready is currently up by 7K votes in District 9. We'll see how the vote goes during the night, but this is a good sign for Democratic Candidates trying to take Suburban Districts this and next year.
I believe this qualifies Warren for Memetic Badass status, who's with me?
The article does point out that Warren hasn't actually talked much about the financial industry during this campaign, barring that private equity stuff recently. That's helped ease some financiers' concerns. Her insisting she's a capitalist has helped too.
It also helps that more and more of them are younger and more progressive themselves — the old stereotypes of Wall Street aren't quite so accurate anymore.
And while some would still prefer to sit out the general if she wins the nomination, the article note that this is becoming more and more of a minority view.
Warren's campaign team of course isn't going to bring this up or court the industry more — that'd lead to even more complaining about how she's not a "real" progressive.
Disgusted, but not surprisedhttps://whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/2019/09/10/day-964/
https://apnews.com/788d664afbfd4565805dc1c0de8d4ffb
https://talk.whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/t/who-the-fuck-has-left-the-trump-administration/908
2/ Trump called his second national security adviser and told him that he missed him. In phone calls with retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Trump has solicited advice on national security challenges, including asking McMaster whom he should nominate for Secretary of Defense. McMaster was also fired by Trump on Twitter. (NBC News)
📌 Day 428: Trump will replace H. R. McMaster with John Bolton as his national security adviser. Bolton is a Fox News commentator and a former United States ambassador to the United Nations. McMaster had reportedly been discussing his departure with Trump for several weeks. "The two have been discussing this for some time. The timeline was expedited as they both felt it was important to have the new team in place, instead of constant speculation," a White House official said. "This was not related to any one moment or incident, rather it was the result of ongoing conversations between the two." McMaster, a three-star Army general, also announced that he would retire from the military. Bolton will be Trump's third national security adviser in 14 months. Bolton was also passed over for a State Department job last year, because Trump didn't like his mustache. (New York Times / Washington Post / Bloomberg / CNN)
3/ The purported high-level CIA source extracted from Russia in 2017 is currently living in Washington under his real name and under government protection. The CIA's Russian informant was active in the agency's conclusion that Putin ordered and orchestrated the campaign to interfere in the 2016 presidential election. The CIA then exfiltrated one of its top spies from Russia after officials became concerned he was in danger of being caught after Trump "mishandled" classified material. While NBC News is withholding the man's name and other key details at the request of U.S. officials, he fits the profile of the person who may have had access to information about Putin's activities, and who would have been recruitable by American intelligence officials. The NBC correspondent went to the man's house, rang the doorbell, and five minutes later two men in an SUV came up the street and parked immediately adjacent to the correspondent's car. (NBC News)
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/possible-ex-russian-spy-cia-living-washington-area-n1051741
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/politics/russia-us-spy-extracted/index.html
📌 Day 111: Trump met with Putin’s top diplomats at the White House. The talks came one day after Trump fired the FBI Director, who was overseeing an investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election. Sergey Lavrov met with Rex Tillerson earlier in the day and sarcastically acknowledged the dismissal of James Comey by saying "Was he fired? You're kidding. You're kidding." The Kremlin said Trump's firing of Comey will have no effect on bilateral relations between the two countries. Trump also met with Sergey Kislyak, a key figure in the Flynn investigation. (Associated Press / Reuters / Washington Post / NPR)
4/ Trump has repeatedly expressed skepticism about using foreign intelligence from covert sources, saying he doubts the credibility of the information they provide. Multiple senior officials who served under Trump, said he privately complained that foreign spies can damage relations with their host countries and undermine his personal relationships with their leaders. (CNN)
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/10/politics/donald-trump-foreign-spies-skeptical/
5/ Trump claimed he'll release an "extremely complete" report of his financial records in order to dispel the notion that he's profiting off of his administration. In response to questions from reporters about several instances of U.S. Air Force personnel staying at his Turnberry resort in Scotland, Trump said it was unfair to suggest that he played any part in the arrangement because he owns so many different properties. He offered no specifics about the report, nor did he give a timeline of when he plans to release it. (Politico)
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/09/trump-financial-information-1486965
6/ Trump played a direct role in setting up the arrangement between his golf resort in Scotland and officials at Glasgow Prestwick Airport with the goal of increasing private and commercial air traffic to the region. During Trump's presidential run, the Pentagon began using the airport to refuel Air Force flights, giving the local airport the job of finding accommodations for flight crews who had to remain overnight. Yesterday, Trump said that the deal had "NOTHING TO DO WITH ME," but documents show both Trump and the Trump Organization were directly involved in crafting the partnership. The Trump Organization worked to get Trump's resort on the list of hotels that Prestwick would routinely send aircrews to, even though Turnberry is 20 miles from the airport – farther away than many other hotels and with higher advertised prices. (New York Times)
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/09/us/politics/trump-hotel-turnberry.html
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/06/air-force-trump-scottish-retreat-1484337
📌 Day 963: Trump denied being involved in the stays at Turnberry by Air Force crews, tweeting that "I know nothing," but that "they have good taste!" Air Force crews will typically stop at U.S. military bases in Europe to refuel, where it's cheaper to do so. Trump added: "NOTHING TO DO WITH ME." (Politico)
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/09/trump-air-force-scotland-resort-1486440
poll/ 60% of Americans expect a recession in the next year. Trump's economic approval rating declined from 51% in July to 46% in September, with 47% disapproving. (Washington Post)
poll/ 48% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president – down from 44% in June. 56% disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president. (ABC News)
poll/ 60% of American say Trump does not deserve to be reelected. (CNN)
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/10/politics/cnn-poll-trump-reelection-2020/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/10/business/economy/health-insurance-poverty-rate-census.html
The Trump administration promoted an immigration judge that threatened a 2-year-old Guatemalan boy with an attack dog if he didn't stay quiet in court. "I have a very big dog in my office," Judge V. Stuart Couch told the boy, "and if you don't be quiet, he will come out and bite you!" In August, the Trump administration promoted Couch and five other judges to the Justice Department's Board of Immigration Appeals, which often has the final say over whether immigrants are deported. (Mother Jones)
Trump ordered White House officials to crackdown on homelessness in California. Trump has repeatedly attacked Democratic politicians in California over the state's homelessness issue, which he's called a "disgrace to our country." The Trump administration, however, may have exacerbated the problem by tightening immigrants' eligibility for federal assistance. (Washington Post)
A federal judge set Michael Flynn's sentencing for Dec. 18th. Flynn pleaded guilty on Dec. 1, 2017, to lying to the FBI about contacts with then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. (Washington Post)
Three House committees are investigating reported efforts by Trump and Rudy Giuliani "to pressure the government of Ukraine to assist" Trump's re-election campaign. The Democratic chairman of the House Intelligence, Oversight and Foreign Affairs committees wrote to the White House and State Department seeking records related to what they described as efforts to "manipulate the Ukrainian justice system." (Reuters / CNBC)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-ukraine-giuliani-idUSKCN1VU1SA
Bolton meanwhile is insisting that he quit. Honestly, that wouldn't be surprising to me. Bolton might have just gotten frustrated that he wasn't getting his precious war with Iran or something.
And yeah, I'm pretty sure whoever Trump picks to replace him will be just as awful in their own way if not worse.
Edited by M84 on Sep 10th 2019 at 9:35:44 PM
Disgusted, but not surprisedIn fact, we have a great deal of evidence that it is just as likely Trump won't bother replacing him.
Like a 1/3rd of the positions of the White House are vacant these days.
Edited by CharlesPhipps on Sep 10th 2019 at 7:34:23 AM
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.Well, with 80% of North Carolina District 9 in, it appears that Republican Dan Bishop will barely take it, with around a 1% advantage against Democrat Dan McCready. Still, considering this is a District that went 12% for Trump and 11% Republican just last year (albeit that one was heavily rigged), the Republican only winning by 1% is a massive decline for the District.

Look, all we are saying is, if you want to fight the NRA, do it the right way. Don't step down to their level and spout bullshit, stick to the facts.
Otherwise, you're only giving them more ammunition and strengthen their base.
Edited by Forenperser on Sep 10th 2019 at 12:11:38 PM
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian