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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Yeah the Hillary polls weren’t particularly off, she won the popular vote by several points and that’s after she dropped a good chunk because of the FBI Director intervening to help Trump win. Hell I'm not sure if polls were properly able to account for the impact that the end of the Voting Rights Act will have had on people’s ability to vote.
I don’t think there even was any polling after Comey’s letter.
The problem now is that there’s gonna be a lot of factors to consider, the Voting Rights Act is still gone (so that means Dems have to win by more than normal), the FEC is being gutted (so that more steepness added to the hill), we’ve got reports of rigged voting machines out fo Mississippi (which may mean that it and similar states can’t be won by Democrats), and Russian interference has yet to kick in.
The problem is that Democrats don’t just need to win narrowly, they have to win by such a huge margin that the end of the Voting Rights Act, rigged voting machines, the gutting of the FEC and Russian interference can all be overcome.
Edited by Silasw on Aug 31st 2019 at 9:53:18 AM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranThis has more or less always been the democrats' problem. If you look at the last two democrats that won, a LOT of things had to go right for them and the candidates had to be exceptional (opinions on Bill Clinton as a person aside, he was very charismatic and was able to rally the democratic base around him without too much trouble).
Meanwhile the republicans can field mediocre or even disastrous candidates and still win because the system is rigged in their favor.
Well, not always. In 2012, Romney could have won the popular vote by a couple of percentage points and still lose the electoral college. And if memory serves in 2008 the same could have happened. Cherrypicking bad.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanIt wasn’t fully killed, the Supreme Court killed the FEC’s ability to provide oversight to traitor states, apparently it’s not fair to judge them for Jim Crow anymore.
Now I’m sure that if Trump has his way the Supreme Court would scrap it altogether, he’d probably need one more judge before Arizona and Texas could put in ‘literacy tests’ again (which an exception if all your grandparents were US citizens), but getting rid of the oversight was a huge help.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranBear in mind that the Federal Electoral Commission isn't just gutted, it literally can not function
. The resignation of its vice-commissioner has left the commission with too few members to even have quorum.
Let me guess: Only the POTUS or a specific cabinet member can nominate people to fill in these FEC vacancies?
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.Mass shooting in Odessa, Texas. Multiple fatalities and over a dozen injuries are confirmed.
Shooter was confirmed shot and killed.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/31/us/odessa-texas-active-shooter/index.html
Edited by Rationalinsanity on Aug 31st 2019 at 8:18:46 AM
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.I'm not sure I get it any more. Am I supposed to be happy that he's dead? That he didn't kill more people? That the Second Amendment is preserved?
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"So, anyone heard about the Straight Pride parade in Massachusetts? From the sounds of things, it was a colossal embarrassment. They were way outnumbered by police and counter-protesters, Milo showed up, some of the bigots were literally dressed like clowns (face-paint, rubber noses and all), one of them brought a Sargon body pillow with him, they didn't have the budget for floats so they just used cars with pieces of paper written on with sharpies taped to them, and they had literal anti-gay gangsta rap in it!!!
Edited by CookingCat on Aug 31st 2019 at 5:23:43 AM
Milo showing up.
...
I...
Edited by CharlesPhipps on Aug 31st 2019 at 5:26:52 AM
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.Ok, Poe's Law question, these guys dressed as clowns and Sargon body pillows, were they sincere protesters? Because that sounds like people who joined in to mock them. But then I also remember those college guys who tried to mock safe spaces by protesting wearing diapers and became laughingstocks for it.

Unless Texas(!) and Florida go blue, there's still a chance the Rotten Orange could come back to power.
Just because people don't understand probabilities doesn't mean that polls are not useful, Five Thirty Eight gave Trump a 30% chance of winning. Which meant that 3 out of 10 times he'd win, our reality was merely one of those 3.
So "those polls" are not incorrect, or rather this absolutely doesn't establish that they're actually incorrect.
Trump being historically behind potential Dem candidates is relevant, not because it says that he cannot win but because it represents an uphill battle that he'll have to deal with. We should not assume that he cannot win, but we shouldn't reject polling just because he won once.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Aug 31st 2019 at 1:36:02 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang