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Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#288701: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:20:59 PM

[up][up] Which would be just as stupid as all the butt-hurt Bernie Bros not supporting Hillary in 2016 (and I'm a Sanders supporter btw).

Edited by Forenperser on Aug 26th 2019 at 10:22:04 AM

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Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#288702: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:22:31 PM

It would serve Sanders right if Clinton supporters abandoned him. Of course, that would be stupid, so we shouldn't do it. Looking at you, #NeverHillary Dems.

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:25:55 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#288703: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:23:00 PM

On the poll, while to individually shouldn’t be taken as a huge thing (it’s one poll) we can plug it into other polls to see an average and look at trends.

A trend I’ve been seeing for a while now is Biden slowly ticking down, he dropped big after the first debate and then recovered, but since recovering he’s been on a slow path downwards.

Warren has likewise been on a slow path upwards for several months now, the number out of Monmouth for her isn’t particularly strange (they have her at 20%, something Fox had her at in a recent poll and similar to the 18% another pollster had her at recently).

The poll is strange but it’s not that strange, the numbers for Warren map fine into the high end of her current polling, the numbers for Bernie do the same (Warren and Bernie have been basically tied for almost a month now), it’s the Biden drop that is sharp, but they’re not the only one to see a sharp drop for Biden, he’s occasionally had low polls of the low 20s for a while now.

The poll is just one poll, but mapping it only other polls and it seems to map okay onto Biden’s very low points (though it’s a bit lower) and Warren and Sander’s high points.

The interesting thing is that Biden’s support doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, check the Real Clear Politics polling average, as Biden ticks down fast nobody is ticking up as fast, Biden voters might be leaving him and have not yet settled on a new candidate.

[up][up] Which it should be noted didn’t actually happen, Bernie voters backed Hillary at the same rate Hillary voters backed Obama, the entire Butthurt Bernie Bro thing was never a big thing, it was just very vocal due to the Internet.

Edited by Silasw on Aug 26th 2019 at 8:25:24 AM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#288704: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:24:40 PM

As candidates drop out of the race, we'll see the numbers solidify as people pick their "second choices".

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#288705: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:26:34 PM

If Sanders becomes the nominee, I will happily slap a Feel the Bern bumper sticker on my car and go up and down the state to turn out voters. We don't have the luxury of whining about the 2016 primaries for a whole more freaking year.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#288706: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:27:22 PM

I hope he doesn't, but if he does, I will vote for him and I will canvass for him. Because that's how Democrats should work.

[down] On the other hand, people may be hoping Williamson does not endorse them. tongue

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:28:13 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#288707: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:27:31 PM

What I think could made a big impact is endorsements from C-list candidates, the likes fo Castro, Booker, O'Rourke, Gillibrand and Klobuchar.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
LordYAM Since: Jan, 2015
#288708: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:28:58 PM

Most Bernie supporters DID vote for Hillary. More so voted for Hillary than Hillary supporters went for Obama in 08.

As for the supreme court. Hopefully RBG lasts until January 2021. Then if Clarence Thomas steps down (it'll have been 30 years by that point) we may have a more liberal court. That depends on whether she can endure another 17 months

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#288709: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:30:40 PM

That also depends on Thomas not stepping down between now and 2021 so he could make sure his replacement is a Republican.

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#288710: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:32:23 PM

[up][up][up]Yang accepts endorsement from wherever he can get it, so he'd probably appreciate a shout-out from Williamson.

i'm tired, my friend
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#288711: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:32:30 PM

[up][up][up]

Yeah, I think the qualifying difference is that the Bernie or Busters were a tremendously Vocal Minority, to the point of causing a commotion at the convention.

Edited by ironballs16 on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:33:54 AM

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#288712: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:33:15 PM

Apparently, Elon Musk supports Andrew Yang, or at least has publicly tweeted in favor of his MBI proposal. I'm not sure how that translates to votes earned given how polarizing Musk is, but it's interesting.

More so voted for Hillary than Hillary supporters went for Obama in 08
Which is weird, since I was not aware any such bloc existed at the time. Why in the world would anyone not vote for him? Spite?

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:34:06 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#288713: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:34:30 PM

Amusingly I got an ad for Tulsi Gabbard of all people when coming to this thread.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#288714: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:34:32 PM

Most Bernie supporters DID vote for Hillary. More so voted for Hillary than Hillary supporters went for Obama in 08.

As I understand, roughly 12% of Sanders supporters went for Trump in 2016, while something like 28% of Clinton supporters went for McCain in 2008?

The difference, of course, is that if those 28% had gone for Obama, then Obama would have just won the election even harder than he already did. But if those 12% had gone for Clinton, we wouldn't have President Trump in office.

We're more critical of the people responsible for us losing an election than we are of those not responsible for us winning one. It would have been nice if those Clinton-McCain voters had turned out for Obama, but we ultimately didn't need them. We desperately needed those Sanders-Trump voters, though.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 26th 2019 at 2:36:24 AM

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PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#288715: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:36:19 PM

[up][up][up]From what I've observed, a lot of Yang's base are Musk fans.

i'm tired, my friend
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#288716: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:37:13 PM

That reminds me of how like 40% of voters in the 2012 Democratic primaries voted for someone else besides Obama in West Virginia and Oklahoma.

KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#288717: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:37:25 PM

I mean, where do these Sander supporters who went to Trump live? It really only matters if they were in states that we needed to beat Trump, right?

Oh God! Natural light!
RainingMetal (Handed A Sword) Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#288718: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:39:27 PM

If one of the top-tier dems ends up winning and it's not the one we have our preferences to, we can at least trust them to hire cabinet members that aren't Always Chaotic Evil.

ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#288719: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:39:48 PM

According to 538, Yang's base is mostly young white men online. I can easily see how fans of Musk discovered him and became supporters.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#288720: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:43:41 PM

Which is weird, since I was not aware any such bloc existed at the time. Why in the world would anyone not vote for him? Spite?

One reason is them being a Republican (or Republican leaning Independent) who happened to vote in the Democrat primary, others may well have been Southern White Democrats who’re refused to vote for a black man.

Edited by Silasw on Aug 26th 2019 at 8:44:51 AM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#288721: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:44:13 PM

According to 538, Yang's base is mostly young white men online. I can easily see how fans of Musk discovered him and became supporters.

Makes sense. These folks are enthusiastic for technologists and, while not racist themselves, are often blind to issues facing minorities since they swim in relatively privileged circles.

One reason is them being a Republican (or Republican leaning Independent) who happened to vote in the Democrat primary, others may well have been Southern White Democrats who’re refused to vote for a black man.

I'm more curious about why they supported Clinton in the first place. I guess Bush was just that unpopular?

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:53:06 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#288722: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:45:32 PM

Who do you expect most C-listers' supporters to go once they drop out? I can imagine Castro's going for Warren between her deliberately courting him at the debate as well as both of them leaning toward the progressive policy wonk side of things. Klobuchar and Buttigieg might go Biden, Beto I'm not so sure.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#288723: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:47:05 PM

From what I've observed, a lot of Yang's base are Musk fans.

I am in no way surprised, Yang is the techbro candidate after all.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#288724: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:49:12 PM

"I mean, where do these Sander supporters who went to Trump live? It really only matters if they were in states that we needed to beat Trump, right?"

That 12% is millions of voters. Statistically speaking, a few thousand of them had to have been in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin where they will make all the difference.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#288725: Aug 26th 2019 at 1:56:22 PM

I wonder who Yang will endorse (if anyone) when he drops out.

Disgusted, but not surprised

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