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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
It would serve Sanders right if Clinton supporters abandoned him. Of course, that would be stupid, so we shouldn't do it. Looking at you, #NeverHillary Dems.
Edited by Fighteer on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:25:55 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"On the poll, while to individually shouldn’t be taken as a huge thing (it’s one poll) we can plug it into other polls to see an average and look at trends.
A trend I’ve been seeing for a while now is Biden slowly ticking down, he dropped big after the first debate and then recovered, but since recovering he’s been on a slow path downwards.
Warren has likewise been on a slow path upwards for several months now, the number out of Monmouth for her isn’t particularly strange (they have her at 20%, something Fox had her at in a recent poll and similar to the 18% another pollster had her at recently).
The poll is strange but it’s not that strange, the numbers for Warren map fine into the high end of her current polling, the numbers for Bernie do the same (Warren and Bernie have been basically tied for almost a month now), it’s the Biden drop that is sharp, but they’re not the only one to see a sharp drop for Biden, he’s occasionally had low polls of the low 20s for a while now.
The poll is just one poll, but mapping it only other polls and it seems to map okay onto Biden’s very low points (though it’s a bit lower) and Warren and Sander’s high points.
The interesting thing is that Biden’s support doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, check the Real Clear Politics polling average, as Biden ticks down fast nobody is ticking up as fast, Biden voters might be leaving him and have not yet settled on a new candidate.
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Which it should be noted didn’t actually happen, Bernie voters backed Hillary at the same rate Hillary voters backed Obama, the entire Butthurt Bernie Bro thing was never a big thing, it was just very vocal due to the Internet.
Edited by Silasw on Aug 26th 2019 at 8:25:24 AM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranAs candidates drop out of the race, we'll see the numbers solidify as people pick their "second choices".
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"I hope he doesn't, but if he does, I will vote for him and I will canvass for him. Because that's how Democrats should work.
On the other hand, people may be hoping Williamson does not endorse them.
Edited by Fighteer on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:28:13 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Most Bernie supporters DID vote for Hillary. More so voted for Hillary than Hillary supporters went for Obama in 08.
As for the supreme court. Hopefully RBG lasts until January 2021. Then if Clarence Thomas steps down (it'll have been 30 years by that point) we may have a more liberal court. That depends on whether she can endure another 17 months
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Yeah, I think the qualifying difference is that the Bernie or Busters were a tremendously Vocal Minority, to the point of causing a commotion at the convention.
Edited by ironballs16 on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:33:54 AM
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"Apparently, Elon Musk supports Andrew Yang, or at least has publicly tweeted in favor of his MBI proposal. I'm not sure how that translates to votes earned given how polarizing Musk is, but it's interesting.
Edited by Fighteer on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:34:06 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"As I understand, roughly 12% of Sanders supporters went for Trump in 2016, while something like 28% of Clinton supporters went for McCain in 2008?
The difference, of course, is that if those 28% had gone for Obama, then Obama would have just won the election even harder than he already did. But if those 12% had gone for Clinton, we wouldn't have President Trump in office.
We're more critical of the people responsible for us losing an election than we are of those not responsible for us winning one. It would have been nice if those Clinton-McCain voters had turned out for Obama, but we ultimately didn't need them. We desperately needed those Sanders-Trump voters, though.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Aug 26th 2019 at 2:36:24 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.I mean, where do these Sander supporters who went to Trump live? It really only matters if they were in states that we needed to beat Trump, right?
Oh God! Natural light!If one of the top-tier dems ends up winning and it's not the one we have our preferences to, we can at least trust them to hire cabinet members that aren't Always Chaotic Evil.
ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.One reason is them being a Republican (or Republican leaning Independent) who happened to vote in the Democrat primary, others may well have been Southern White Democrats who’re refused to vote for a black man.
Edited by Silasw on Aug 26th 2019 at 8:44:51 AM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranMakes sense. These folks are enthusiastic for technologists and, while not racist themselves, are often blind to issues facing minorities since they swim in relatively privileged circles.
I'm more curious about why they supported Clinton in the first place. I guess Bush was just that unpopular?
Edited by Fighteer on Aug 26th 2019 at 4:53:06 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Who do you expect most C-listers' supporters to go once they drop out? I can imagine Castro's going for Warren between her deliberately courting him at the debate as well as both of them leaning toward the progressive policy wonk side of things. Klobuchar and Buttigieg might go Biden, Beto I'm not so sure.
"I mean, where do these Sander supporters who went to Trump live? It really only matters if they were in states that we needed to beat Trump, right?"
That 12% is millions of voters. Statistically speaking, a few thousand of them had to have been in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin where they will make all the difference.

Edited by Forenperser on Aug 26th 2019 at 10:22:04 AM
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian