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Imca (Veteran)
#286626: Aug 5th 2019 at 1:21:26 PM

[up][up][up] Acording to all the pollsters, Biden is currently the highest lead over Trump.

Don't you think if America was as progressive as this forum, Republicans would have been made irrelevant like long, long, LONG ago?

Is correct, even a large chunk of the democratic party is conservitive as well.... pretty much the base of the minority vote, which is one of the areas he dominates... Republicians just do a very good job of scaring off every one not a straight white man regardless of what the rest of there policies are.

[up] He shouldn't be discounted against any one really, the Biden lead is 60/30, about the same as Clinton was, and the others are 50/40..... so... Trump is still a significant threat regardless of what happens.

Edited by Imca on Aug 5th 2019 at 1:22:56 AM

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#286627: Aug 5th 2019 at 1:25:15 PM

There seems to be this weird assumption that Americans collectivtly are secretly progressive as we are.

Don't you think if America was as progressive as this forum, Republicans would have been made irrelevant like long, long, LONG ago?

I don't know about the assumption's correctness, but I do know that the left suffers from far more internal divisions than the right, simply as an unfortunate side-effect of the former emphasizing freedom of thought as an overall positive while shunning the idea of unity over shared hatred of a common enemy as something that totalitarian dictatorships and other illiberal political systems are built upon. Unfortunately, the right whole-heartedly embraced hatred as a source of strength and unity after the left "stole" the spotlight from them in the late 20th century.

This is no more easily demonstrated than the recent strife that gripped the ranks of the Democrats a couple of weeks ago, just before Trump's racist attacks on the four female Democrats that got elected to the House last year reminded the agitators that there's a much bigger threat they should be all united against.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
bitemytail Since: Dec, 2011
#286628: Aug 5th 2019 at 1:30:36 PM

The average American is more Conservative than Democrats think and more Liberal than Republicans think.

And most people skew between the two depending on the issue. Very few people are entirely 'left' or 'right' on every issue.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#286629: Aug 5th 2019 at 1:31:25 PM

There seems to be this weird assumption that Americans collectivtly are secretly progressive as we are.

Don't you think if America was as progressive as this forum, Republicans would have been made irrelevant like long, long, LONG ago?

Random thought: isn't that exactly the same logic the alt-Right types use? That everyone is as racist as they are, in their heart of hearts?

ShinyCottonCandy Everyone's friend Malamar from Lumiose City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Everyone's friend Malamar
#286630: Aug 5th 2019 at 1:35:59 PM

Hopefully, enough Americans want "anyone but Trump 2020" and understand that the only actual option that meets that criterium and can possibly win will be the democratic nominee, so that if said nominee is actually progressive, the moderates will have to go along with it.

Taking off my rose-colored glasses now.

My musician page
bitemytail Since: Dec, 2011
#286631: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:02:57 PM

[up] That doesn't work, because people split between two candidates they don't like just choose not to vote.

If you gave the votes of every American that didn't vote in 2016 to a third candidate (Bob Mc Randomguy), Bob would've won the election. (Source is a Google search, which suggests there was 58.1% voter turnout, so Bob would have gotten 41.9% of the popular vote with Trump and Clinton having ~29% each).

[up][up] I've seen plenty of Democrats beat the "Implicit Bias" drum too. Obviously in very different contexts.

On a side note, I've nerd-sniped myself with the idea of seeing how many electoral votes Bob would've won. NPR suggests that it would be possible to win the election with only 23% of the popular vote: https://www.npr.org/2016/11/02/500112248/how-to-win-the-presidency-with-27-percent-of-the-popular-vote

This would work by getting 50% +1 of the vote in enough states to get 270 electoral college votes and getting none anywhere else.

Edited by bitemytail on Aug 5th 2019 at 2:13:43 AM

Imca (Veteran)
#286632: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:09:50 PM

How much is Trump going to ingnore the 850pt fall in the stockmarket do you guys think?

Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#286633: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:11:16 PM

[up]x6 As was discussed a few dozen or so pages back, the Right is by no means unified.

Hell, the more extreme factions seem to hate the 'regular' conservatives even more than they hate leftists.

Edited by Forenperser on Aug 5th 2019 at 11:11:52 AM

Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#286634: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:14:40 PM

[up][up] Oh yeah, I caught a glimpse of that. What’s going on there?

Oh God! Natural light!
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#286635: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:21:22 PM

China devalued its currency again, in retaliation for Trump's latest wave of tariffs.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#286636: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:22:09 PM

China has apparently retaliated during their trade war,leasts thats what the headlines saying

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#286637: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:47:45 PM

I have yet to see anything that makes me think Biden is going to lose the Primary.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#286638: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:49:51 PM

What have been the post debate poll numbers anyway?

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#286639: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:51:07 PM

[up] x 6 But the bulk of them usually do have a much easier time forming a unified front in the legislatures or voting for the GOP candidate for governor/president just to spite the left. Of course, as shown by the GOP's attempts to destroy Obamacare after Trump's inauguration, this unity collapses the moment they start doing actual politics.

Edited by MarqFJA on Aug 5th 2019 at 12:55:45 PM

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
bitemytail Since: Dec, 2011
#286640: Aug 5th 2019 at 2:52:42 PM

[up] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

From Aug 2

  • Politico/Morning Consult:
    • Biden 32
    • Sanders 18
    • Warren 15
    • Harris 10
    • Buttigieg 6
    • O'Rourke 3
    • Booker 3
    • Yang 2
    • Castro 1
    • Gabbard 1
    • Steyer 1
    • Klobuchar 1
    • Delaney 1
  • Harvard-Harris:
    • Biden 34
    • Sanders 17
    • Warren 8
    • Harris 9
    • Buttigieg 4
    • O'Rourke 3
    • Booker 2
    • Yang 1
    • Castro 1
    • Gabbard 0
    • Steyer 1
    • Klobuchar 1
    • Delaney 0

Edited by bitemytail on Aug 5th 2019 at 2:54:40 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#286641: Aug 5th 2019 at 3:35:01 PM

Yes, barring Bernie or Warren endorsing the other, it seems like Biden's lead is a lock.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Imca (Veteran)
#286642: Aug 5th 2019 at 3:37:14 PM

Even then odds are they would fall a few points short, since not 100% will fall in line.

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#286644: Aug 5th 2019 at 3:48:50 PM

Are people seriously trying to call the primary now? We have no idea where the support of smaller candidates will go until they start dropping, once we have four candidates we can start looking at where things stand, while polls still matter right now the person leading is no guaranteed a win when their lead is under 50%.

And before anyone brings up the 2016 Republican primary, democrats work under different rules, Biden can’t win all the delegates by getting 30% the democrat primary works on a proportional representation system.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#286645: Aug 5th 2019 at 3:48:53 PM

Poor Delaney,sucks being at the bottom (also,I have no idea who they are)

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#286646: Aug 5th 2019 at 3:55:12 PM

One of the bottom candidates who couldn't make it to the debates has dropped out and endorsed Sanders.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#286647: Aug 5th 2019 at 4:05:13 PM

There's a lot of people who have been expecting things to turn around but the fact is that all of the candidates are in, Biden's lead is not just big but manifestly bigger, and the things that people expected would knock him down haven't. It's not so much that the others don't have a chance, it's that everything so far has been consistent and unchanging.

Also, delegate wise, Biden is a old rocking horse of the Democratic Party.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Aug 5th 2019 at 4:07:56 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#286648: Aug 5th 2019 at 4:38:09 PM

The average American is more Conservative than Democrats think and more Liberal than Republicans think.

And most people skew between the two depending on the issue. Very few people are entirely 'left' or 'right' on every issue.

Exactly this, it's not that the American populace is all moderate or all progressive. They're just weirdly non-idealogical and thus support some very progressive positions while opposing other, comparably progressive, ones.

There's a lot of people who have been expecting things to turn around but the fact is that all of the candidates are in, Biden's lead is not just big but manifestly bigger, and the things that people expected would knock him down haven't. It's not so much that the others don't have a chance, it's that everything so far has been consistent and unchanging.

Also, delegate wise, Biden is a old rocking horse of the Democratic Party.

This is incorrect, if you look at his approval rating over time it has been significantly less static then what you've suggested.

There is a good chance that he will win the primary but it's not close to being over yet and this certainty is not justified, he's done well and then crashed down before.

Biden may win or he may not. But nothing is set in stone.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#286649: Aug 5th 2019 at 4:44:40 PM

What has been static is his lead over every other candidate, as that graph shows. It's hard to hold out hope for anybody else winning the primary when Biden's lead has only gone from "significant" to "less significant".

i'm tired, my friend
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#286650: Aug 5th 2019 at 4:54:14 PM

In two months Biden dropped 20 points, and he has yet to fully recover.

Yes, Biden can absolutely win but it would be a mistake to feel like he can't lose. He's dropped significantly and we could see that happen again, everyone should understand the possibility of a Biden victory but it's most certainly not inevitable.

There is still time for Warren or Sanders to beat him, and I don't think it's accurate to say otherwise.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang

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