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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Besides, a point seldom raised in electability discussions is that being elected is not just a matter of who votes for you but also of who votes against you. This is especially important in today's political environment where most people vote not in favour of one side but against the other, c.f Roy Moore.
In such a setting, much of the advantage of a moderate-er politician (there are degrees of moderate, it's not a black-and-white dichotomy) has better chances in an election because there will be fewer people voting against them.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanYou might want to look to the other side of the political spectrum. Carter was defeated after just one term to Reagan.
And I don't think Reagan was considered a moderate when he was elected, given that he (along with Thatcher) ushered in the supply-side economic models that we are still dealing with the consequences of today.
EDIT: Thread moved fast, was responding to the example of the only person who defeated an incumbent president fighting re-election was a centrist white guy.
Edited by singularityshot on Jul 31st 2019 at 8:42:58 AM
x4 I think you missed my point then. Obama (who was more Left than his competitor and did promise more Left promises than he actually delivered) won in part because he managed to be an optimistic force of change in the middle of a crisis. And he was significantly less moderate IIRC than, say, Bill Clinton or John Kerry.
Edited by AzurePaladin on Jul 31st 2019 at 11:42:24 AM
The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -FighteerOf course, the reality of Carter and H.W. Bush's losses was more rooted in money issues.
In Carter's case, the economic downturn, stagflation, and the 1979 energy crisis kind of screwed his chances of winning re-election. The Iran hostage crisis didn't help matters either.
In H.W. Bush's case, it was going back on that asinine "No New Taxes" thing that screwed him.
So I guess one major factor in Trump winning re-election or not will be how good or bad the economy is doing next year.
Edited by M84 on Jul 31st 2019 at 11:53:41 PM
Disgusted, but not surprisedObama was likable, inspiring, and charismatic.
That is what grabs people's attention. It wasn't having safe policies and refusing to rock the boat; it was the fact that people genuinely wanted to listen to him when he spoke. He talked like a human being they could relate to and not like an 80-year-old economics professor.
It's the same appeal that Trump rode to victory over his primary opponents and Hillary Clinton: his ideas were f*ckstupid bullshit when they weren't aggressively malevolent, but he presents those ideas as "Just one of the guys, no different from you and your bros!" People respond to that.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Jul 31st 2019 at 10:17:44 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.But he was also push as this super duper progresive tip of the spear after bush years, I mean "yes I can" anyone?.
this kind backfire because it make people angry when he didnt deliver ALL is promise right away, hell people consensus of obama is "he could have done more" which is a huge shame, really.
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"While expectations for Obama were exceedingly high for some people, he did run on a progressive platform and then become a moderate president for eight years, so it's not like his left-wing detractors don't have a point.
"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."Indeed. Obama was the progressive candidate when he stepped up on that primary stage next to Clinton. It's what he ran on and he got a lot done when his charm and charisma won the day. Not as much as some would have liked, but is shooting for the stars and only hitting the stratosphere better or worse than never trying to lift off in the first place?
That is what we need for our candidate. We need someone who not only can sell a skeptical American public on an unpopular idea like raising taxes, basic income, social welfare, etc., but also someone who will.
Especially since right now, Republicans are hard at work finding people who can and will sell a skeptical American public on unpopular ideas like concentration camps.
Right now, that next-gen Barack Obama is looking like Elizabeth Warren.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Jul 31st 2019 at 10:35:21 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.There actually could be a point in the future where it’s safer to run very progressive candidates against Republicans, but that point would be after a big electoral overhaul that protects voting rights and stops shady influence.
Thing is none of the moderates are willing to make the changes needed to make it safer to run very progressive candidates, the only ones pushing for that safeguarding of democracy are the very progressive candidates like Warren.
Biden isn’t going to bring in a new voting rights act, national voter registration and work towards abolishing the electoral college, he’s relatively okay with the system as is that lets Republicans cheat.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranWell, Obama carry into being a progresive turn point, and he was....just not the way he was expecting(read: is mere present trigger the right so bloody mcuh they chose trump to feel safe again), but this cant backfire in that if he dosent come close to expection, things really turn ugly.
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"Seeing a bunch of articles that are annoying in how much they seem to deride Warren for not having "realistic" plans and goals. I think that her goals are pretty damn realistic, just have to kick people in the pants and have the political will to carry it out. In the end it seems like rather than extremists on either side, it's gonna be "moderates" that are gonna lead this country into an inescapable downward spiral.

The other problem, is that in the form of climate change we now have a timer and a pendulum swinging ever closer.
At some point, we're going to need to take a shot in the dark and angle for a more Progressive candidate. Because other the candidates only an eclectic mix of progressives and the middle-of-the-Democratic-Party-road candidates support any kind of large scale change to combat climate change. If we do not, and play it safe for too long, bad things happen.
Tobias hit the nail on the head on the GOP. You'll always have another bad candidate fielded by them. But if they can win with their own reactionary radicalism, then we can too. And the best way to capture the public's imagination, is to be the candidate talking about what we can do, not what we can't. Obama did it, and we should do it again.
Edit: Pagetopper. Also, on Clinton 1's election, don't forget that it was a three way race with Ross Perot. And that American culture has moved past the 90s. The legacy of Reagan is beginning to fade, a whole host of voters never even lived through his Presidency, 2020 is not 1992.
Edited by AzurePaladin on Jul 31st 2019 at 11:39:10 AM
The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer