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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Obviously we can defeat Iran. I don't think that's in question, but neither is it the primary issue at hand.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Yeah. The question is not "Can we defeat Iran?" The question is "Should we defeat Iran?"
Trump has nothing to gain and everything to lose by invading Iran, both internationally and domestically. The only argument in favor of invasion is Iran's nuclear program, and that to me honestly feels like it has a huge potential for backfire.
If we start shooting up Iran until international and domestic pressure forces Trump to withdraw (or we change Presidents), Iran can spin that in front of the international community. It would be trivially easy for them to say "This, right here, is why we need to have nuclear weapons. That shit would never have happened to a nuclear-armed country."
Edited by TobiasDrake on Jun 21st 2019 at 8:19:31 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.Nah, Trump blinked because he always blinks. He's a coward who hates the idea of committing resources for anything, normally a vice but even vices can be useful. As his pulling away from the brink demonstrates.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang![]()
Yes. Which is why Iran isn't going to make the first move. Unlike Trump, they actually have something to gain from a war with the U.S.: improved international standing and diplomatic relations brought on by being the victims of an unjust occupation. Where a war with Iran would utterly destroy Trump's reputation both foreign and domestic, Iran could spin it to their benefit.
But that is only true so long as they do not shoot first. That's why Trump and Bolton are desperately trying to find something they can spin, "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction" style, to make it look like we totes had a good reason to attack them.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Jun 21st 2019 at 8:27:21 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub."I don't trust anyone with WMDs, but I distrust our side the least.'' Of course, with Trump at the top, that torturous double-negative no longer applies.
Also, Iran has been poking at us in ways that are not overt enough to provoke unequivocal international support for a counterattack. This is something they are very good at. They are much better at it than Trump is at responding to it, which is obviously why they are doing it now.
Edited by Fighteer on Jun 21st 2019 at 10:29:04 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Iran has been poking at us because we withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal and Trump has been cozying up to people who wanted to invade them.
Obama had to deal with a lot of lunatics who wanted to start a war for no reason.
Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jun 21st 2019 at 7:34:38 AM
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.It's perfectly consistent and logical to not want more nuclear-armed states, especially one who is hostile to you.
Which is why Trump's decision to leave the Iran Deal is so deplorable and idiotic.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jun 21st 2019 at 7:33:33 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangJohn Bolton wants a war with Iran. He's wanted it for years. He wants it more than anything else in the world. His little black heart seethes with rage at Iran's existence. And he's Trump's National Security Adviser. It's not hard to follow.
Edited by Fighteer on Jun 21st 2019 at 10:59:30 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Only the countries with nukes get to decide who else can have nukes. That's the basic idea in the age of nuclear diplomacy. There's a certain inexorable logic to it. "We trust each other, because we've had them and not blown each other up. We don't trust anyone else in the same way." It's a tense, but mutual understanding. When a crazy person like Donald Trump takes hold of one of those nations, however, the delicate balance is upset.
Edited by Fighteer on Jun 21st 2019 at 11:43:12 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"If I thought we would go to war and then spend the next 20+ish years putting things back right, I might support a war. However, I doubt that is what we would do given our recent history and no one is talking about what happens after we win.
I think Trump is a dove in his heart, but he's got some really bad advisors.
Trump is a gullible, narcissistic idiot. He has no moral backbone; no courage. He'll take whatever action he thinks is most likely to make him, personally, look good.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Also, invading Iran might make Hamas and Hezbollah (and maybe the Zaidi's of Yemen) go all in in attacking Israel; Iran's the main backer of these Organizations (especially because Hezbollah and the Zaidi's are Shi'ite Factions), and with the loss of their main source of weapons and money, they might think they have no choice but to go to war with Israel, at least one last time. Iraq and Syria (also led by Shi'ites) might also join that war, and could possibly also attack Americans in Iran.
It'd be a massive mess.

Look back on the Iran nuclear program thread and you'll see that neoconservatives never learn the lesson, believing that any invasion should be a piece of cake, because no country has even got a chance to hurt the exceptional US military.
Life is unfair...