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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
I’d say that the best way to understand the Iranian thinking is to compare them to cops doing a traffic stop or a women speaking to a strange man at a bar, they have to be paranoid and not trust the other party in any serious way, sure they could have benign intentions, but there is a real risk that the other party is out for their blood and that one wrong move is all it takes for them to end up shot dead/raped.
They know that not every American military ship is going to murder an airliner of civilians (real example) or remove their democratic(ish) government and replace it with a brutal dictatorship (again real example) or fabricate evidence so as to justify an invasion (as with Iraq) but for their own safety they have to presume that any American could be part of that.
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 11:42:00 AM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran![]()
If they were really worried about being attacked wouldn’t they have made a point of showing they were operating in good faith? They’ve opened communications with US vessels for rescue missions in the past. And if these vessels were operating under the IRGC and not the regular Iranian Navy I doubt they’d care either way about provoking the US.
And you’ll have to forgive me if I call bullshit on the claim that Iran is just some cowering victim, given their behavior in the Strait in the past.
If you’d like to bring up the Tanker War I’ll remind you Iran attacked almost 160 civilian shipping vessels that year.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 4:52:45 AM
They should have sent a poet.Sure if they were sane and rational people who believed that others were probably acting in good faith. But being a sane and rational person who belfries in others isn’t what gets you into the IRGC. You’re again seriously underestimating the fear involved here, it’s across the Iranian political and military spectrum, they’ve seen what happens when the US decides it wants you dead, Trump has made it clear that he wants Iran to be the new Iraq, that will rightfully terrify everyone in Iran.
Beyond all this there is obviously the possibility that the Iranians did it, there’s even a real possibility that IRGC elements did it without central command because they want to frame the US for framing Iran so as to justify restarting the nuclear program.
It can be both, Iran is a brutal regime with only a pretence of democracy and a vicious history of supporting terrorism, war, dictatorship and attempted genocide. It is also a victim of Anglo-American cooperate interests leading to the overthrow of democracy and the exploitation of the people, likewise it is the victims of US war crimes and US support for a violent dictatorship that wanted to see every Iranian die under a WMD cloud.
Yep and if Iran was in a declared war against another nation that the Japanese ship was trading with I’d be with you that they were behind the attack, but they’re not, there’s a big difference between attacking ships supplying Saddam with money and attacking random trading vessels.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
You’re seriously overestimating the fear involved here. Many of the ships attacked in the 80s belonged to unaligned nations, and Iran hasn’t shown any unwillingness to Rachel up tensions in recent years. Hell, they were firing missiles into the Strait just last year.
I do suspect it’s the IRGC responsible, though. They’re the ones behind the extremely common UAV/FAC runs on USN ships.
They should have sent a poet.Trump Warns of Epic Stock Market Crash If He's Not Re-Elected
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And if he's not reelected, fire will rain from the heavens, everyone's children will turn gay, and Melania will be sad. Yeah, yeah.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"RE: Gulf of Oman attack
I think the theory is less "The US perpetrated a false flag" and more "A regional foe of Iran may be engaged in a frame-up that the US is all too eager to buy into" - again, see "Remember the Maine" that started the Spanish-American War, but was likely the result of an internal explosion rather than hostile action.
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"Sure but they were en-route to Iraq, a nation that Iran was at war with. If the Saudis attack Iran I fully expect the Iranians to start attacking any ship trading with Saudi Arabia regardless of if it flies a neutral flag, but we’ve not hit that point yet.
My theory isn’t even that, it’s that we’ve no real idea what happened and that it’s entirely understandable for the Iranians to fear a false flag attack and act in a paranoid fashion. The Iranians have the right to be paranoid when it comes to the US.
I’m waiting on the Japanese to say what they think happened, because they’re the only ones I trust on this.
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 2:16:12 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
If the Iranians are truly so afraid of the US having a reason to go to war maybe they should try to get the IRGC to stop buzzing US warships with UAVs and making unsafe intercepts with fast attack boats.
Their actions don’t exactly reflect a fear of the US.
The way Iranian craft were behaving in the lead up to and aftermath of the event doesn’t show paranoia or fear, it shows association.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 7:26:25 AM
They should have sent a poet.They should, but the IRGC are not exactly the smartest group around. There are going to be elements within the IRGC who honestly think they can win a (to them inevitable) war against the US, there are also going to be elements who think that provoking the US further is the only way to protect themselves (by giving credence domestically to their hardline agenda which calls for a nuclear program).
During the Cold War the USSR was incredibly afraid of the US, because of that fear it did all sorts of insane and dangerous things that made what they fear more likely to come to pass, fear makes people do batshit crazy things, especially justified fear.
Oh and to add to things, I’m seeing claims that Germany is also casting doubts on the US’s claim that Iran was behind the attack.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Yes, but that’s a far cry from your earlier characterization of Iran as totally timid and worried.
I’ll reiterate that the most likely suspect remains the IRGC. Not only are they the main operator of the fast attack craft seen in the video, they’re responsible for most of the disruptions in the Strait, and it just so happens this is a Japanese vessel being attacked while Rouhani is meeting with Abe, a move that was not well received by the IRGC. Combine that with the behavior shown in the videos and it’s more than enough to draw a conclusion.
The Navy and the Japanese are both saying they have additional evidence. At this point there’s not much else to do but wait and see. The peanut gallery of uninvolved countries doesn’t mean a whole lot.
They should have sent a poet.Totally worried yes, but I certainly didn’t intend to characterise them as timid.
Which video are you referring? I’m not aware of a video of the attack, just of one of the Iranians cleaning up a mine after the attack, which they could be doing because they did the attack, because they genuinely wanted to help, because they are afraid if the US got the mine the US would alter it so as to blame the Iranians, or even because they want to alter it to blame the US.
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 3:41:11 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
I’m sorry, but the idea that they were just genuinely trying to help strains credulity to the absolute limit. That they were trying to get rid of something they didn’t do but they were worried the US would pin on them is even more ridiculous, since this action just makes them look more suspicious and it can be assumed they would claim the US was trying to pin something on them regardless of what evidence was released.
First off, the recovery of the crews. We’re now hearing an Iranian vessel threatened the ship that had originally picked up one of the crews and forced them to turn the crew over. They then raced a USN ship to the second crew. If they were just trying to help why wouldn’t they have left the first crew alone once it had been recovered? Why would they have tried to cut off a USN vessel, which you claim they’re terrified of, to recover a crew it’s obviously already moving towards?
Now, the ship that recovered the mine has been specifically identified as an IRGC ship. Given the established motivations of the IRGC, it doesn’t really make any sense that they’d just want to help out by grabbing the mine. Note that they didn’t send an EOD team or anything like that, one of the ships that had been loitering in the area just pulled up and grabbed the thing.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 9:17:03 AM
They should have sent a poet.You find it ridiculous that a Middle Eastern regime that has given up its WMD program but is still in the US’s crosshairs would be afraid of the US fabricating evidence to justify an invasion?
Even if you find the idea that the current US government would fabricate evidence ridiculous how is them fearing that based on the US’s precedent ridiculous?
That depends heavily on what they do with the mine, if it disappears down some black hole then yeah there’s tons of ground for suspicion, if it shows up with the Iranians claiming to have proof that it was a Saudi or Israeli mine we certainly shouldn’t trust that, if the Iranians for once get their heads our their arse and hand the mine over to the Japanese we might get some answers.
Because the crew are witnesses, witnesses who the Iranians either want to ensure testify a certain way or who they are afraid the Americans will make testify a certain way.
Yeah I’d say that rules out them just innocently helping, it still leaves us with two possibilities, either the Iranians did it, or they think that the US is trying to frame them for doing it.
I’m not yet willing to rule out a US frame-up, never mind the Iranians mistakenly perceiving a frame-up even when there isn’t one.
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 5:04:00 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranAnd the missile fired at a US aircraft directly before the incident?
You’re having to bend over backwards to construct a scenario where this isn’t exactly what it looks like: the IRGC mined some ships in the Strait to ratchet up tensions and send a message to Rouhani.
I’ll add that there’s no chance anyone’s ever seeing that mine again either.
They should have sent a poet.Anything from the Iranians panicking and thinking this coming right at them (you know, like the US once did with a civilian airliner full of innocents) to them being territorial dicks who felt they could get away with shooting down a drone because it was a drone.
It’s really not bending over backwards to say that there are an awful lot of possibilities when dealing with a multi-headed Iranian regime, an area with a ton of history and at least three different powers who would like to see a war start with Iran and aren’t exactly know for their ethical conduct.
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 6:23:02 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranThis is wrong, the Gulf of Tonkin incident wasn't a false flag.
The first attack happened and involved North Vietnamese gunboats attacking a US ship, the second didn't happen and was the product of a false radar image.
Neither is a false flag.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang![]()
US UAVs fly over the Strait daily. Why’d they feel a need to shoot one down right before a suspicious attack? If it was simple panic it would be happening on the regular, and yet it does not.
I’d also ascribe some basic competence to IRCG forces. I’m sure they’d be able to tell that a single unarmed surveillance aircraft wasn’t an imminent attack.
Since you keep bringing up the Flight 665 shootdown, I’ll remind you that went before the ICJ and didn’t result in a finding of US guilt. AEGIS records show that the aircraft was only transmitting in Mode 3, a military IFF, and the ship that shot it down was engaged in combat with Iranian forces at the time. The US also officially accepted responsibility in part for the incident.
That you’re so eager to leap to the defense of the IRCG is a little worrying. It’s not like these were Iranian regulars out and about.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 12:02:50 PM
They should have sent a poet.It could be (as you’re implying) that they didn’t want it to see what they were up to, it could be that they realised something was happening and thought that the drone was involved, it could also be that they had a particularly jumpy idiot in control that day, gigantic cock ups do happen, especially when dealing authoritarian regimes.
I’m still not ruling out any possibilities, this could be the Iranian regime getting in a fight with itself, it could be the Iranians going much more hardline and cocking up the timing, this could be the Saudis, Israelis or US trying to justify a war, this could be pirates trying something insane, it could even be old munitions from a previous conflict surfacing at the worst possible time.
That’s strait up false. It went to the ICJ where no judgment was made and the US and Iran reached a deal (Iran dropped the case and the US paid Iran a large sum of money but admired no fault). Nothing about the incident ever went to the ICC. The US is not part of the ICC and has standing law in place to invade Belgium if the ICC ever tries to put Americans on trial.
I think we should keep this discussion to our opinions and not get personal, does that sound good to you?
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 6:49:46 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Typo on my part, I meant ICJ. But again, findings did not indicate guilt on the part of the US, hence the settlement. It’s not like the US went out and maliciously shot down a civilian airliner like you seem to have been implying.
And again, it’s not like these were regular Iranian units. I could buy the “scared and nervous” argument if they were, but the fact that they were IRCG units, and the totality of events surrounding the attack pretty easily points towards their involvement. You can’t deny that the lengths Iran went to after the attack to secure witnesses and evidence are highly unusual. Even the argument that it just so happened to be someone jumpy at the trigger is pretty thin, like I mentioned these UA Vs are out there all day every day and if these units were really that jumpy this would be a common occurrence rather than an extraordinary one.
Sure, there are other possibilities, but they are very remote. That it’s all just a big coincidence is a ridiculous argument.
Perhaps CENTCOM should have waited until the additional evidence they’re claiming to have was ready to make a statement. Pompeo should certainly have kept his damn mouth shut.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 12:15:52 PM
They should have sent a poet.There was no finding from the ICJ, the matter was settled and Iran withdraw the issue, it was basically settled out of court.
It didn’t deliberately and knowing target a civilian airliner no, but it did engage in such reckless behaviour that there’s a strong argument for malicious negligence and that the people responsible should be on trial for war crimes for their actions, exactly the same way the Russians and Ukrainian Separatists behind the downing of MH 17 should be on trial for their shooting down of a civilian airliner they negligently mistook for a military plane.
Sure they’re unusual for a ‘normal’ incident, for an incident where a ton of accusations are going to start flying before things are understood it’s less unusual. The Iranians have certainly acted in a way that indicates they either did it or they think they’re being framed.
My argument is not that any of the possibilities I’ve laid out are the one true answer, it is simply that we have far to little information from reliable sources to make any kind of conclusion and that you are jumping the gun by saying that we can definitively blame anyone right now.
I’d also point out that as much scorn as you’ve heaped on the idea of it being a false flag that’s exactly what you’re suggesting, that one part of the Iranian regime false flagged another another part of the Iranian regime, which sounds absurd, but you’re not wrong that it’s a real possibility.
The only statement that should have been made/would have been made if the US was acting in good faith is something along the lines of “following the incident we are working closely with the Japanese government to determine what occurred and we are ensuring that all evidence is transferred to their care”, let the Japanese point the finger, it’s their ship and they’ve got a lot less motive to blame a particular party.
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 7:29:42 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran

Because they don’t trust the Americans and are terrified that said ships could be the forward elements of an invasion force. Now that’s insanely paranoid thinking but it’s also entirely in character for the Iranian regime to assume that anything flying the US flag is on an active mission to find an excuse to invade Iran and install a brutal dictatorship (again).
Care to share some recent examples, I’m not aware of any.
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 11:36:41 AM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran