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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
It's almost never a False Flag Operation. People really like the concept and it's a really popular conspiracy theory when basically anything ever happens. But it almost never actually is one.
For the same reason that is so often the bane of most conspiracy theories, really: reality is much stupider than we would like to believe.
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A similar false flag operation involving an attacked tanker was used to justify the Vietnam War, so you understand my unusual skepticism. Plus, the U.S. claims mines were used when the tanker's crew reports seeing a flying object with their own eyes.
From the pictures we have now, it can be confirmed that the ships were hit above the waterline, not below. Maybe the divers were simply attempting to assess whether there was any underwater damage.
False flags are one of those things like false rape accusations that basically never happen, but whenever one does it’s seized on as proof it totally does happen all the time.
Given the totality of events here, it’s far more likely that the Iranians are just getting up to the same stuff they’ve been up to for the last 30 years than it is for the whole thing to be some massively elaborate ruse.
They should have sent a poet.Just seems very weird for Iran to happen to carry out a minimally damaging attack right during the middle of diplomatic trip where Japan has grounds to be angry about it as well.
Especially when they've been walking on eggshells this entire administration because of how war hawkish Trump's people.
It just seems far too convenient for Pompeo, especially when coupled with the fact that he's given no real explanation why or how and the supposed report from US intelligence about it being carried by frogmen placing limpet mines has been proven false.
Oh really when?Is it weird? It’s not exactly outside their typical pattern of behavior. They’ve proven many times before that hawkish rhetoric from the US is no deterrent to them harassing and attacking ships.
As far as the claims about the nature of the attack, there’s no denying that something was attached to the ship and that Iranian personnel came back to the ship to recover evidence. Most defense analysts are saying at this point that both stories are probably true, as the employment of multiple weapons simultaneously is standard Iranian fast boat tactics.
Couple that with the fact that Iranian boats were trying to shoot down a Reaper shortly before the attack as well.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 3:47:51 AM
They should have sent a poet.When they've been careful to sit on their hands thus far and know Trump's administration is spoiling for a fight it is.
Iran isn't good people but they're usually smart enough to not try and carry out an attack at what is arguably the single worst possible time to do so.
Especially when again it's now known for a fact that Pompeo's version of the attack simply didn't happen.
If it is as cut and dry as Iran attacking foreign shipping then why is he lying about what happened?
Edited by LeGarcon on Jun 16th 2019 at 6:39:10 AM
Oh really when?Even if the crew was mistaken and it wasn't a missile the damage occurred very well above the waterline and there is no evidence of limpet mines being used.
I'm not saying this is definitely some crazy CIA false flag op though, to clarify.
But this is just way too convenient for Trump's people and the fact that Pompeo's version of events are false just doesn't sit well with me at all.
Oh really when?There are clear photographs of an object attached to the hull, which Iranian fast attack craft later recovered. The damage is consistent with what you’d expect from a limpet mine. Another mechanism of attack isn’t fully ruled out yet, but you’re jumping the gun a little saying it’s definitely not a limpet mine.
As I mentioned above, firing rockets or shells from one FAC to distract a larger vessel while another FAC approaches is a standard Iranian tactic. That would account for both the mine and the flying objects.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 4:04:11 AM
They should have sent a poet.The entire thing would be very uncharacteristic of the Iranians, on top of that have we got it confirmed that there was any Iranian involvement at all? I’ve heard about the video but has any reliable source (AKA not the Saudis, the US or the Israelis) confirmed that it was Iranian in the video or that they were returning to remove evidence as opposed to rendering aid?
So far the only thing that seems to have been independently varied is that something attacked the ship, everything else seems to be coming from the White House, who can’t be trusted at all.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Here’s the timeline of events from the Navy.
Both vessels were in international waters in the Gulf of Oman approximately 10 nautical miles apart at the time of the distress calls. USS Bainbridge was approximately 40 nautical miles away from the M/T Altair at the time of the attack, and immediately began closing the distance.
At 8:09 a.m. local time a U.S. aircraft observed an IRGC Hendijan class patrol boat and multiple IRGC fast attack craft/fast inshore attack craft (FAC/FIAC) in the vicinity of the M/T Altair.
At 9:12 a.m. local time a U.S. aircraft observes the FAC/FIAC pull a raft from the M/T Altair from the water.
At 9:26 a.m. local time the Iranians requested that the motor vessel Hyundai Dubai, which had rescued the sailors from the M/T Altair, to turn the crew over to the Iranian FIA Cs. The motor vessel Hyundai Dubai complied with the request and transferred the crew of the M/T Altair to the Iranian FIA Cs.
At 11:05 a.m. local time USS Bainbridge approaches the Dutch tug Coastal Ace, which had rescued the crew of twenty-one sailors from the M/T Kokuka Courageous who had abandoned their ship after discovering a probable unexploded limpet mine on their hull following an initial explosion.
While the Hendijan patrol boat appeared to attempt to get to the tug Coastal Ace before USS Bainbridge, the mariners were rescued by USS Bainbridge at the request of the master of the M/T Kokuka Courageous. The rescued sailors are currently aboard USS Bainbridge.
At 4:10 p.m. local time an IRGC Gashti Class patrol boat approached the M/T Kokuka Courageous and was observed and recorded removing the unexploded limpet mine from the M/T Kokuka Courageous.
So assuming that the Navy is being honest (which they likely are) and that the Navy statement is what the Navy believes happened (which depends on who released the Navy’s timeline, if it came from the White House it could be entirety fake) we’ve got confirmation of Iranian in the area and acting to conduct clean up, with no indicator if its evidence disposal cleanup or rendering aid cleanup.
That’s far from a conclusive case that the Iranians did anything, it could be them, it could be pirates, it could be the Saudis, it could be a third party, ect...
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
That timeline came straight from CENTCOM.
And sure, it’s possible it could have been someone else. But given the highly suspicious behavior of the Iranians and their track record when it comes to attacking and harassing ships in the region, at this point the evidence against them is good. If they were just interested in helping out they wouldn’t have been racing the Bainbridge to the crews, or showing up 10 hours after the fact to grab UXO as fast as they could and then scram.
I’ll also mention there are reports that Iranian craft were firing at a US Reaper flying in the area before the attack. [1]
Those reports aren’t confirmed yet, but could explain the flying objects observed by the crew.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 4:27:54 AM
They should have sent a poet.Outright attacking trade ships is far from normal behaviour for the Iranians, especially in more recent years.
Also I don’t find removing UXO then leaving suspicious, would the US have stuck around to share the UXO with the Iranians or have moved to quickly get it somewhere safe that it could be disarmed and looked at? The Iranians are probably (rightly) terrified that if the US got its hands on the UXO it would falsify evidence to blame Iran so as to justify an invasion.
Same with racing the US to get to the crew, the sooner the crew is safe the sooner everyone goes away, that’s pretty important for the Iranians, who have to consider the possibility that the US will (again) murder a load of Iranian civilians if it stays in the area to long, or that they will pressure the crew into giving false statements that blame the Iranians or even that the entire thing is a hoax to get US ships close enough to Iran to start an invasion.
Iran’s actions make sense in one of two contexts, they either did the attack and are trying to cover it up, or they didn’t and are terrified that the US is going to fabricate or falsify evidence so as to blame Iran and justify an invasion.
That distrust of the US is entirely justified, the US is actively looking for an excuse to invade and has got a history of faking evidence so as to justify starting a war.
Edit: On the drone thing, against two possibilities, they either didn’t want the drone to see them making the attack or they were afraid that the drone was up to something itself (spying on them, being part of a false flag operation, looking for civilian airlines to shoot down, ect...).
Edited by Silasw on Jun 16th 2019 at 11:33:10 AM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Attacking trade ships is absolutely normal behavior for the Iranians. And if they were supposedly acting so altruistically, why didn’t they attempt to open any communications with US vessels (or any vessels, other than to demand the crews be turned over to them) in the area? That would be standard procedure for a ship looking to render aid.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jun 16th 2019 at 4:34:15 AM
They should have sent a poet.

To make maters even worse, our intelligence reports filed it as a torpedo.
So you have 3 different reports of what happened, depending on who you ask, even with video of it.
You give this administration way too much credit, especially when the region has a history of attacking shipping that goes through.... Not to say its not incredibly convenient for them, but like karma doesn't exist, and sometimes things just work out great for bad people :/
Err in this case great for them, bad for every one else.