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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

singularityshot Since: Dec, 2012
#282701: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:12:39 AM

I don't think it's good for Warren as she appears to be the only significant player in her group. On the one hand, it might give her clear air to express her ideas. On the other hand, she's going to be the target for the others in her group plus she doesn't get to participate in the Biden dog-pile that the other debate will be.

I'm guessing these debates are going to go out pseudo-live (assume a 15 second delay for a producer to kill the feed if things get out of hand). Kind of feel that I would have preferred a pre-recorded affair so that the second debate doesn't get an advantage by being able to respond to any points raised in the first debate with the participants of said debate not having the ability to reply.

ShinyCottonCandy Everyone's friend Malamar from Lumiose City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Everyone's friend Malamar
#282702: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:13:54 AM

I suspect that Biden's lead, while strongly helped by name recognition, is perhaps even more strongly helped by association with Obama. We've already discussed why that's bothersome, so I probably don't need to continue down that road.

My musician page
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#282703: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:14:07 AM

Biden is well known, and dominates among moderate Democrats, while the progressive side is heavily split.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#282704: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:16:14 AM

I think this will be Warren's time to shine actually. She has the most focused responses for policies and this will be a big help considering how little time so many candidates are going to get to talk.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#282705: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:20:13 AM

Warren has a great opportunity here for sure, especially because she's the lead participant in the first debate. Everyone will be trying to knock her off that hill for those sweet polling numbers, giving her a chance to counter with her developed platform.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#282706: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:47:48 AM

And in shitty news: all charges have been dropped and the investigation has started over in the Flint, Michigan lead water scandal.
I'm getting "Access Denied" for some reason. Anyone mind posting an excerpt or a summary?

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#282707: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:47:54 AM

I still don't get how this guy is leading. I mean, he has basically offered nothing so far.

Except virtue signaling and flip-floping, whenever it suits him.

Because people see him as the Second Coming of Barack Obama. That's been the leading factor in his popularity since 2016 when everyone wanted him to run against Hillary and Bernie. It's even more effective now, when two years of Trump have left many people desperately wanting a return to the comparative golden age of 2009-2016.

Also he's white and a dude, which gives him perceived "electability" over his peers.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
TheRoguePenguin Since: Jul, 2009
#282708: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:54:54 AM

[up][up]That one line is basically the entire article. The rest is just historical context. Here's a better one.

Flint Water Prosecutors Drop Criminal Charges, With Plans to Keep Investigating

    Article 
CHICAGO — Prosecutors stunned the city of Flint, Mich., on Thursday by dropping all pending charges against officials accused of ruining the community’s drinking water and ignoring signs of a crisis, casting doubt on what some residents had seen as a small but tangible step toward justice.

Fifteen state and local officials, including emergency managers who ran the city and a member of the governor’s cabinet, had been accused by state prosecutors of crimes as serious as involuntary manslaughter. Seven had already taken plea deals. Eight more, including most of the highest-ranking officials, were awaiting trial.

On Thursday, more than three years after the first charges were filed, the Michigan attorney general’s office, which earlier this year passed from Republican to Democratic hands, abruptly dropped the eight remaining cases. Prosecutors left open the possibility of recharging some of those same people, and perhaps others, too.

But in Flint, a city where faith in government was already low and where many residents still refuse to drink the tap water, the news was seen by some as a sign that they had been wronged once again.

“This is not justice,” said Melissa Mays, a Flint resident and advocate for safe drinking water. “It just seems like a political ploy.” She added: “The only thing it tells me is our lives don’t matter.”

Flint’s water crisis, which started in 2014, was a failure of government at all levels. A state-appointed emergency manager switched the city’s drinking water source from Detroit’s municipal water system to the Flint River in an effort to save money. Local officials failed to implement corrosion controls, allowing lead to leach from pipes. Health agencies assured residents the water was safe even as people complained that it smelled bad, tasted funny and was discolored.

Those officials were wrong: Children drank water with dangerous quantities of lead. At least 12 people died in a Legionnaires’ outbreak that prosecutors linked to the new water source. Trust in government was ruined.

As officials scrambled to fix the water system and rebuild trust, Michigan’s Republican attorney general, Bill Schuette, appointed a team that began investigating and announcing criminal charges. Still, from the start, some officials and legal observers raised questions about the prosecutors’ approach. And residents asked why the governor at the time, Rick Snyder, also a Republican, had not been charged.

After Mr. Schuette left office in January and was replaced by Dana Nessel, a Democrat, there were signs of a change in course. Todd Flood, the lead prosecutor appointed by Mr. Schuette, was dismissed. New prosecutors assigned by Ms. Nessel expressed concern about evidence collection and took steps to seize Mr. Snyder’s phone. Then, most drastically, Ms. Nessel’s team dropped all charges on Thursday and pledged to investigate more, saying “all evidence was not pursued” by their predecessors.

“Upon assuming responsibility of this case, our team of career prosecutors and investigators had immediate and grave concerns about the investigative approach and legal theories,” said the two lead prosecutors, Fadwa Hammoud and Kym Worthy, in a statement. They said they would meet with Flint residents later this month and noted they were “not precluded from refiling charges against the defendants” or adding new charges and defendants.

Flint’s mayor, Karen Weaver, said she took the prosecutors at their word and hoped they would follow through with new charges. She said that there was some confusion and frustration in her city about the decision to drop charges, but that she believed it could ultimately be a positive.

“It is frustrating, but I’d rather be frustrated at this end and know that they’re going to do a deep dive into what happened,” Ms. Weaver said in an interview. She added: “I think this way, they may have the evidence they need to be able to hold them accountable and throw away the key.”

Efforts to speak with Mr. Flood, the former lead prosecutor, and Mr. Schuette, the former attorney general, on Thursday were not immediately successful. Mr. Schuette defended his team’s work on Twitter. “We had an experienced, aggressive and hard-driving team,” he wrote. “Everything we did was for the people of Flint.”

Among the officials whose charges were dropped: the former director of the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, a state epidemiologist, a former Flint public works director, and emergency managers who had been appointed by Governor Snyder to oversee the city. The decision to drop charges did not affect seven officials who had already accepted deals with prosecutors and entered no-contest pleas, but who had not yet been formally convicted by a judge.

James White, a lawyer for Howard Croft, the former Flint public works director, who was charged with involuntary manslaughter and has denied wrongdoing, said the attorney general’s decision validated his concerns about the investigation. Mr. White said his client, who was first charged in 2016, was “carefully, cautiously elated” about the news.

“I give a lot of the credit to the attorney general for having the courage to do this,” Mr. White said.

Juan A. Mateo, a lawyer for Darnell Earley, the former emergency manager who made the decision to switch the water source, said his client had always maintained his innocence.

“This is an unprecedented decision,” Mr. Mateo said of the choice to drop charges. “It is evidence of the real problems that plagued the underlying investigation.”

Ronald F. Wright, a criminal law professor at Wake Forest University, said it was not uncommon for newly elected prosecutors to drop cases brought by their predecessors. But it was far more unusual, he said, for them to suggest that they might file new charges.

“You inherit the file, you start looking through it, and the deeper you get in the file, the more you realize there are possible weak spots in your case,” Mr. Wright said. “I view this as a natural process of a new chief prosecutor becoming familiar with the details of the case.”

Ms. Nessel, the new attorney general, defended her prosecutors’ decision to drop the charges, but she also sought to reassure Flint residents. “I want to remind the people of Flint that justice delayed is not always justice denied,” she said.

That message was a tough sell for some in Flint, where residents said they had waited for years for justice and been disappointed with the results. Monica Galloway, a member of the Flint City Council, called the decision a setback on Thursday and said she hoped new charges would be filed.

“I think anyone that lives in the city of Flint that is affected by this wants justice,” Ms. Galloway said. “And justice can only be done if this is not just redone, but done properly.”

Larkmarn Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Hello, I love you
#282709: Jun 14th 2019 at 10:55:39 AM

Yeah, Biden offers two things:

To the casual non-Republican, he offers connection to Obama.

To the more serious, he has electibility. Which is a loaded term, but in my opinion a real thing... that is 100% a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. People can elect "not a straight white man" but I think people (who care more for other candidates) are willing to give him support because they think "you know what? I would, but people won't elect a straight white man." Which results in people not even getting the chance to try to elect "not a straight white man." Which leads people to go "huh, it looks like we need to elect straight white men."

Found a Youtube Channel with political stances you want to share? Hop on over to this page and add them.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#282710: Jun 14th 2019 at 11:07:22 AM

Everyone's going on about "attacking" the other candidates in these debates.

Forgetting that whoever "wins" will kind of need the support of those candidates to actually win the general election.

It's a bit of a balancing act — you want to win against the others, but you don't want to outright alienate them.

Ultimately, the really important thing isn't the candidate per se — it's the tempering of the Democratic Party's platform for 2020.

Will it be (from among the 3 most likely ones)

1) Biden's nostalgia driven push for the Obama years 2.0?

2) Warren's odd mix of populism and policy wonkishness?

3) Sander's full blown populism?

and what effect will the other candidates have?

Edited by M84 on Jun 15th 2019 at 2:11:48 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#282711: Jun 14th 2019 at 11:14:43 AM

Also if everyone is attacking Biden, you just end up being a voice in the crowd. Remember that a lot of people's second choice after Biden is Bernie. If the other eight spend the night dragging down Biden but not making cases for themselves, a lot of people are just going to shrug their shoulders and hop on the Bernie train.

fruitpork Since: Oct, 2010
#282712: Jun 14th 2019 at 12:25:12 PM

I think Bernie has an excellent chance here to school Biden on policy. Sure, Bernie isn’t perfect, but he wasn’t actively regressive in the past like Biden was.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#282713: Jun 14th 2019 at 12:32:11 PM

If Biden and Bernie clash big their voters may grow bitter on each other, that can easily result in their voters switching their second choice to someone else.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#282714: Jun 14th 2019 at 12:34:38 PM

They're both older men. "You get off my lawn." "No, you get off MY lawn!" Then they go for each other with canes. The ratings would be legendary.

Edited by Fighteer on Jun 14th 2019 at 3:35:01 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#282715: Jun 14th 2019 at 12:36:18 PM

[up][up][up]Sander has checkered record (insensitive remarks, magic math, etc) on that front, and I wonder what direction he will take when foreign policy (another weakness of his) comes up.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#282716: Jun 14th 2019 at 12:38:01 PM

I think Warren has a huge chance to shine in her debate, the only people in her group that have showed much charisma in the past are Booker and Beto, and O'Rourke has just not seemed to have it together at all in the race so far.

I’m actually shocked that Booker has kept such a low profile so far, in Jersey (at least before he made the jump to the national level) he had a big reputation as a spotlight hound. He also has a couple of pet issues like affordable housing and wealth gap that may play well, although for those of us who are firmly on the leftist side, it may come across as working at the margins and fail to grab the imagination the way Warren is right now. Klobuchar will be dangerous too, she’s a very sharp woman with a prosecutor's instinct for the jugular. And she’ll probably try to elevate herself as that debate's moderate, everything will go back to normal if you just elect me sort, which is what far too many people want.

But I think she’s got a big chance to knock this out of the park. Hopefully it doesn’t turn into a dog pile on her, however, since she’ll have the highest approval at that debate by far. It’ll make her a tempting target for everyone else to raise their own profile.

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#282717: Jun 14th 2019 at 12:41:17 PM

Two hours for each debate, allowing thirty minutes for overhead (introductions, fanfare, ad breaks, and moderators talking), gives a generous hour and a half to the candidates. Split ten ways means that no one candidate will get to speak for more than nine or ten minutes. That's not a lot. One imagines most of them will just reiterate their policy positions; there literally is not enough time to get into spirited debate.

Edited by Fighteer on Jun 14th 2019 at 3:41:52 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#282718: Jun 14th 2019 at 12:51:36 PM

Double Post: I haven't linked to Paul Krugman lately, as he's just been talking about stuff and not really offering a lot of detailed economic analyses. But his post today strongly captures my feelings about the core differences between Biden, Sanders, and Warren and consequently why I prefer the latter.

Biden is a candidate of "conventional affability": people support him because they like him at a personal level. But he's never been a serious policy liberal; everything he says and does betrays that he buys into the Very Serious Person "conventional wisdom" that we need lower taxes and entitlement reform. He's a politician's politician: all smiles and folksiness but no place where he will stand and fight.

Sanders is a candidate whose career has been based on tearing down the "establishment", which means that he rejects professional research and analysis and thereby ignores actual policymaking in favor of grandstanding. Every time he speaks, I am more certain that he has grandiose ideas but no plans. He stands and fights for things that make no sense or don't work out of sheer stubbornness.

Warren is a candidate who has done her homework, who has developed solid, well-reasoned, well-researched policy positions and presents them openly, inviting critique and comment. She seems to be the only one of the leading candidates who's more interested in governing well than in making herself popular. She stands and fights for things that will work, and offers proof.

Edited by Fighteer on Jun 14th 2019 at 4:04:30 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#282719: Jun 14th 2019 at 12:51:42 PM

I suspect that several of them will get less than five minutes. They may get to answer a direct question, but can you really see Williamson or Hickenlooper having the stage presence to get the same amount of time as Biden or Sanders?

Warren’s debate may be more polite and take somewhat equal turns, but, uh, Biden and Bernie are both pretty prone to overtalking and interrupting, plus god knows whether Swalwell and Yang will do any trolling.

Edited by wisewillow on Jun 14th 2019 at 1:09:48 AM

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#282720: Jun 14th 2019 at 1:18:02 PM

Warren is going to get another boost, she’s on night one, there are going to be low info voters who don’t realise there are two nights and tune in for the first night only.

Klobuchar has got the chance to be the adult in the room with Biden and Bernie, if she can out herself between the two she might be able to pick up second choice support from their supporters.

I do wonder if anyone will drop out after the debates, especially once people fail to qualify for later debates, I don’t expect candidates locked out of the debates to get much traction.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#282721: Jun 14th 2019 at 1:29:08 PM

I think Harris or Gillibrand has a better chance of standing out than Klobuchar does. They’ve both got more presence.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#282722: Jun 14th 2019 at 1:39:54 PM

I was actually thinking about Harris... My bad.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#282723: Jun 14th 2019 at 1:58:27 PM

Well here's a new wrinkle in the Gulf of Oman tanker attacks - according to the owner of the Japanese tanker, Yutaka Katada, the crew reported something flying towards the ship prior to the explosion, which conflicts with US military reports of limpet mines being used by Iran to do the deed.

At this point, I just really, really hope the hawks in the Trump administration haven't pulled a False Flag Operation on this one, and it's instead some third party that's angling for a Let's You and Him Fight situation.

Update: So now we've got an unnamed official claiming that Iran fired a surface-to-air missile at a US drone in the area, and said:

Prior to taking fire, the American MQ-9 drone observed Iranian vessels closing in on the tankers, the official added, though the source did not say whether the unmanned aircraft saw the boats conducting an actual attack.

Still, it is the first claim that the US has information of Iranian movements prior to the attack.

CNN has not seen any imagery from the US drones. Iran has strenuously denied any involvement in the attack. The same official also said in the days prior to the attack, a US reaper drone was shot down in the Red Sea by what is believed to be an Iranian missile fired by Houthi rebels.

Edited by ironballs16 on Jun 14th 2019 at 7:04:56 AM

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#282724: Jun 14th 2019 at 2:22:35 PM

I can hear a Visual Novel being written as we speak. And who knows, the actual incident could turn out to be even more convoluted.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#282725: Jun 14th 2019 at 6:21:13 PM

The winners and losers of the debate line-up.

The sub-heading is, "Debate lineups don’t really matter, but let’s have some fun." so this isn't exactly dissecting anything, but it does amuse me.

The first loser? Elizabeth Warren. The first winner? Elizabeth Warren. For basically the same reason. She's not getting to debate Biden and Sanders, but she is the highlight of the first night.

Next winner is Bernie Sanders, since he's the high profile progressive going up against the mostly moderate wing of candidates, Biden being the obvious target for him.

Then a set of winners: Booker, O’Rourke, and Klobuchar. The B-listers don't have to share a stage with the front runners besides Warren, giving them a better chance to seize the moment.

Losers: Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper. Two very similar guys running as the moderate candidates on the same stage will make them hard to distinguish against each other.

Next one Kirstin Gillibrand who gets the odd category, "Winner (with strong loser potential)" for the opposite reason of Warren. On one hand, she's getting stage time with most of the big stars, so she gets elevated by proxy. On the other hand, she's on the same stage as the big stars, which risks her getting overshadowed.

Winner: Andrew Yang because he got what he wanted. In his own words: "I have an 8% chance of standing next to Joe Biden and that's the plan, because I want America to google 'Asian man standing next to Joe Biden' when they turn on the debate."

Last set of losers is the four dudes who didn't make the cut for the debate, naturally.

Wait, I lied. Last set of losers is "indecisive voters." [lol]


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