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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Quite the opposite really. I actually want her to win. I explained my stance in a long post in which I pointed out everything I found objectionable about each candidate and concluded that Warren is the least problematic to me despite everything. But I'm trying not to get my hopes up that she somehow overcomes Sanders and Biden.
It's why I hope she focuses less on Biden and his voter base and more on Sanders and his voter base. Warren's main advantage when Biden entered was that her base has the least in common with his compared to the other candidates. When you're in a race like this, the main opponent is the one you have the most in common with.
Judging by that most recent poll, maybe that's what's starting to happen. Maybe she's cutting into Sanders' base.
If it comes down to Warren vs. Sanders or Biden, I'll mark the ballot in her favor when I receive it.
Aside from that, what I'm really invested in is trying to push back against this idea that we should be ignoring early polls. We really shouldn't.
Edited by M84 on Jun 8th 2019 at 11:15:15 PM
Disgusted, but not surprisedWarren is my choice.
However, I don't want to be blindsided if she loses.
And I also need to be aware of who is likely to win as an alternative. I don't want a repeat of 2016 where up became down and blue became red.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.To those that are not happy that Biden is leading and therefore likely to win just take solace in the fact that the primary is doing it's job of shaping and defining the Democrat platform, and every candidate has a say in that, albeit indirectly. We've already got a Hyde amendment reversal out of Joe, I'm sure there are other things we can convince him of.
If that is not enough then I would also consider the fact that the next administration will have to spend a lot of their energy putting out all the constitutional fires the Republicans have set off and then rebuilding and strengthening the constitutional firebreaks. I can get behind the idea of Joe running a caretaker administration for a term, cleaning up the mess left by Trump and thus clearing the way for a more progressive candidate.
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That is, if the Democrats get a second term to be spent on cleaning up. If you go into a period thinking it will mostly be spent cleaning up mess from the previous administration, you run the risk of people thinking you haven't done enough and not giving you more time to finish up.
Edited by akanesarumara on Jun 8th 2019 at 8:49:27 PM
Trump's incompetence is the only thing that has saved us from war.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/09/opinions/trumps-incompetence-silver-lining-rosenthal/index.html
Okay, this guy clearly thinks that false rape accusations are way more common than they actually are. But if there WAS an epidemic of false rape accusations (like a lot of righties think), I could understand why he would be concerned about fraud. So it's stupid, but I wouldn't really call it insa-
WHAT THE WHAT
No beer?! But if there's no beer, then there's no beef or beans!Can we get a movement going to call this pro-rape?
Edited by ShinyCottonCandy on Jun 9th 2019 at 4:48:06 AM
My musician pageNew Iowa poll out.
- Biden: 24% (-3%)
- Sanders: 16% (-9%)
- Warren: 15% (+6%)
- Buttigieg: 14% (+13%)
- Harris: 7% (+/-0%)
- O’Rourke: 2% (-3%)
(Gain/loss compared to the same poll in March.)
So, Warren and Buttigieg rising, Harris steady, everyone else is down. Big drop for Sanders.
Edit: adding this because it pleases me and it’s funny: “Current New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio had a particularly dismal showing: He received the support of exactly zero respondents — not just zero percent rounding downward, but he lacked the support of even a single respondent.”
Edited by wisewillow on Jun 9th 2019 at 2:29:34 AM
First though, where does the unlisted 30% go? They're currently going a bunch of way or have not made up their minds, but they will end up voting for someone.
Second though, be aware of the 15% threshold, a candidate needs to get at least 15% of the vote in a state or district to get delegates from that state or district.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranThanks. I posted that yesterday, but you got the gains and losses of the top candidates.
Warren's making inroads, Buttigieg must be campaigning without sleep if he's shot up so much. Have to wonder what Sander is doing to cost him so much support.
I remember awhile ago voters who supported Biden said their second choice was Sanders and vice versa. It would seem a fair number of those people have started changing their minds, since Sanders losses aren't being made up by people switching to him from Biden. And if people are switching from Sanders to Biden, they aren't enough to stem the tide of his supporters going to other candidates.
Buttigieg has had shockingly good polling, especially considering he started relatively late.
Too bad his actual ideas are...not great.
Like I said though, this seems to confirm that Sanders is the one Warren needs to beat first, not Biden.
I suspect Sanders’ problem is that he is offering nothing he was not offering in 2016. Old dogs and new tricks...
Still, we should wait and see if the polling is either part of a trend or an outlier.
Edited by M84 on Jun 9th 2019 at 8:14:49 PM
Disgusted, but not surprisedThere's a problem with targeting Sanders first, though. As 538 points out, Bernie has a fairly high floor, and I doubt Warren will be able to knock it out from under him. Biden, on the other hand, is mostly running on name recognition and is avoiding public appearances because he sabotages himself when he does. Both she and Sanders need to knock him down, because otherwise he'll carry the nomination through inertia.

It does kind of seem like your a bit over invested in Warren's chances being bad M84. I get that you have reasons for not particularly liking her, but still.