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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#282226: Jun 5th 2019 at 11:40:36 PM

Her poll numbers are still not great at this point.

Her favorability did increase a bit in the past few months, but not as much as one might hope.

Which 2020 Candidates Are More (Or Less) Popular Than They ‘Should’ Be?

Biden's initial bubble did burst, likely due to the allegations of bad touching women in the weeks before his campaign announcement.

Still, the article points out that the favorability of candidates not improving much even after months of campaigning is not a good sign.

The 2020 Endorsement Primary

Also, it seems that Biden's gained more endorsements.

Edited by M84 on Jun 6th 2019 at 2:55:07 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#282227: Jun 5th 2019 at 11:56:08 PM

Months for them, a ton of people are gonna be totally tuned out until the debates and a ton more until voting starts.

I suspect that the number with the already tuned in people are pretty steady, it comes down to people who are now engaging (or engaging fully) forming their opinions.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#282228: Jun 6th 2019 at 12:01:43 AM

This incidentally was the part of the comparison article that covered Warren.

julia_azari: So this is where I was going to make the Reagan comparison.

nrakich: I’m bullish on Warren’s chances, so my first comp for her is a pretty good one: John Mc Cain in 2008. He trailed in the polls for much of 2007 but remained a respected and well-liked figure in the party (as Warren is), so he was well-positioned. Once voting started, people went for a name they trusted.

geoffrey.skelley: John Kerry in 2004? Not really the out-and-out leader through much of the year before, also from Massachusetts, but then wins Iowa and New Hampshire and runs away with the nomination.

nrakich: That was going to be my second choice, Geoffrey! (I am probably too bullish on Warren.)

julia_azari: OK, so someone who is sort of the carrier of a major message within the party, who reflects concentrated beliefs among party activists and core voters and is met with some skepticism by moderates in the establishment … I have another one that’s gonna get me so much hate mail: Sen. Robert Taft, who ran for the Republican nomination in 1952 as a conservative Republican against Eisenhower.

geoffrey.skelley: Oh, Bob Taft — that’s good.

julia_azari: I spent some time with his papers at the Library of Congress this spring, and I found a ton of letters/telegrams to Taft and his campaign managers that were like, “I love your ideas and commitment, but I doubt you’re electable.”

nrakich: That’s amazing, Julia.

geoffrey.skelley: Warren could be “Ms. Democrat” in the same way that Taft was “Mr. Republican.”

micah: OK, so best case for Warren is Reagan or Mc Cain. Worst is Taft? Or maybe Sanders in 2016?

Wait — Julia, did you mean Reagan in 1976 or in 1980?

nrakich: Depends how it works out!

julia_azari: I guess either one? That’s not helpful, I realize, but I think the dynamics are similar.

In 1980, you had an unpopular incumbent from the other party, which is maybe a more clear comparison for 2020. And in 1976, the Democrats were challenging an incumbent under weird circumstances. (It was right after Watergate.)

Edited by M84 on Jun 7th 2019 at 3:01:54 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#282229: Jun 6th 2019 at 3:28:42 AM

I was more or less resigned to Biden being the candidate before he made his announcement. The DNC and arguably American public don't want the radical economic change we need.

Nothing is going to shake his current lead and it's only going to widen as people perceive he's going to win.

Which will result in him winning.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jun 6th 2019 at 3:33:03 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#282230: Jun 6th 2019 at 3:39:11 AM

Good lord you’re a pessimist. I still think Biden is a paper tiger. He’s lost every previous primary pretty hard. You know who else was the front runner this early? Fred Thompson.

Wildcard Since: Jun, 2012
#282231: Jun 6th 2019 at 3:53:29 AM

[up]And until 2016 Trump lost every primary whenever he tried to run for president too. That unfortunately doesn't prove anything wisewillow.

RainingMetal (Handed A Sword) Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#282232: Jun 6th 2019 at 5:07:18 AM

So the most common criticism I hear about Harris is her stance on criminal justice. I just can't remember whether it's that she's too tough or too soft that's the problem. Can anyone fill me in?

ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.
PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#282233: Jun 6th 2019 at 5:27:34 AM

Leans towards too tough and discriminatory against trans folk IIRC.

i'm tired, my friend
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#282234: Jun 6th 2019 at 5:32:16 AM

On the flipside, neither Obama nor Trump were expected to win their primaries. So Biden might not make it. If Warren does more Townhalls like the one in Indiana (and honestly, how many Townhalls does she? She even went to Puerto Rico! Which is great, since most candidate tend to ignore certain areas), then she might gain more and more traction.

And frankly, she is the best candidate. She doesn't have the stink of the 2016 election all over her, she doesn't have a questionable history of touching people weirdly, and her "I have a plan" really caught on. Plus, every time someone asks her about an issue, she packs out a story from her life or a family, thus suggesting that unlike Trump and co she actually gets what those people are talking about (even though she doesn't look that way).

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#282235: Jun 6th 2019 at 5:48:52 AM

Said town halls have not done much to improve her polls so far.

Any real changes will probably depend on the debates, as Silasw suggested.

Disgusted, but not surprised
HailMuffins Since: May, 2016 Relationship Status: Shipping fictional characters
#282236: Jun 6th 2019 at 6:03:50 AM

Betting on any candidate before the debates start is jumping the gun a tad, any predictions made right now are liable to be proven wrong down the line.

I mean, just take a look at 2016.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#282237: Jun 6th 2019 at 6:05:14 AM

People really need to stop using the Trump win to ignore polls.

Disgusted, but not surprised
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#282238: Jun 6th 2019 at 6:18:19 AM

Frankly, there was also a lot of data from the beginning that Trump was more popular than the completely bland and uninteresting candidates of the GOP for 2016. Trump is a racist misogynist rapist possible pedophile but he's never BORING and that carried him from the beginning. The media treated him as a sideshow by giving him nonstop coverage but plenty of us didn't think he'd lose.

Warren and Sanders are the only people who have any name recognition and they have always been on point for their messages—so that they're not going to change opinions that are already made up on them.

Biden can lose voters but I see no sign the others will gain.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#282239: Jun 6th 2019 at 6:18:57 AM

I tend to treat 2016 like an anomaly that won't be repeated,for better or worse

If Trump thinks he can replicate that anomaly that won him 2016 he's going to wind up losing hard,because when your opponents are different you change tactics,Trump will show his tactics only ever worked against Hilary and nobody,plus with closer eyes on Russian interference its going to be harder for them to 'swing' the election for him

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#282240: Jun 6th 2019 at 6:19:28 AM

538 did point out that a big part of Trump's win was due to the media effectively giving him free advertising with all their coverage of him.

You just couldn't get away from the guy.

Disgusted, but not surprised
DrDougsh Since: Jan, 2001
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#282242: Jun 6th 2019 at 6:32:18 AM

Biden can lose voters but I see no sign the others will gain.

Uh, what? Why on earth would you believe it’s impossible for people to warm up to any candidates? You know a lot of people aren’t following the primary yet, right? Like, vague name recognition isn’t the same as following politics. The debates will change things for each candidate. For myself, I had zero to lukewarm interest in Warren as of two or three months ago, and now I’m donating regularly and strongly support her.

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#282243: Jun 6th 2019 at 6:47:39 AM

[up][up][up] Warren doesn't have as much name recognition as you might think...or at least, she didn't until she started her town halls. Between them and the debates she will hopefully push up her profile.

And the whole "so far they haven't changed her poll numbers" talking point...yeah, this might be because until this week, there was barely any media coverage on them.

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#282244: Jun 6th 2019 at 6:55:16 AM

Trump won because the traditional Republican base that would oppose a candidate like him was split like ten ways between wholly interchangeable candidates. If fewer candidates had run during that first debate, he might have been taken out early.

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#282245: Jun 6th 2019 at 7:06:30 AM

[up][up]Regardless, ignoring or downplaying poll numbers seems like a bad idea. Yeah, it's too early to say for certain, but most of Warren's polls just aren't that great.

Disgusted, but not surprised
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#282246: Jun 6th 2019 at 7:07:26 AM

Uh, what? Why on earth would you believe it’s impossible for people to warm up to any candidates? You know a lot of people aren’t following the primary yet, right? Like, vague name recognition isn’t the same as following politics. The debates will change things for each candidate. For myself, I had zero to lukewarm interest in Warren as of two or three months ago, and now I’m donating regularly and strongly support her.

Because this campaign isn't starting soon, it's been going on for awhile now. We know the strategies of the people involved. I'm not happy about it but people expecting a turnaround I believe to be wrong.

Biden is better than Trump.

Just worse than everyone else on the ticket.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#282247: Jun 6th 2019 at 7:19:44 AM

The numbers aren't great, but unlike certain other candidates, Warren's numbers have steadily risen.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#282248: Jun 6th 2019 at 7:21:45 AM

Not by that much. Her poll numbers average out to be in the low to mid teens. And this is after months of campaigning.

Edited by M84 on Jun 6th 2019 at 10:22:58 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#282249: Jun 6th 2019 at 7:23:11 AM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't there the issue that at least some of the polls putting Biden in the lead only covered old people while completely ignoring younger voters?

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
Wildcard Since: Jun, 2012
#282250: Jun 6th 2019 at 7:23:53 AM

The problem is essentially Trump has free advertising and Biden probably wouldn't win. People don't like him that much on either side, the right because he doesn't wanna kill Mexican people and the Left because he is anti-choice. We need to learn from 2016 and pick someone who excites the younger crowd.


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