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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Months for them, a ton of people are gonna be totally tuned out until the debates and a ton more until voting starts.
I suspect that the number with the already tuned in people are pretty steady, it comes down to people who are now engaging (or engaging fully) forming their opinions.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranThis incidentally was the part of the comparison article that covered Warren.
nrakich: I’m bullish on Warren’s chances, so my first comp for her is a pretty good one: John Mc Cain in 2008. He trailed in the polls for much of 2007 but remained a respected and well-liked figure in the party (as Warren is), so he was well-positioned. Once voting started, people went for a name they trusted.
geoffrey.skelley: John Kerry in 2004? Not really the out-and-out leader through much of the year before, also from Massachusetts, but then wins Iowa and New Hampshire and runs away with the nomination.
nrakich: That was going to be my second choice, Geoffrey! (I am probably too bullish on Warren.)
julia_azari: OK, so someone who is sort of the carrier of a major message within the party, who reflects concentrated beliefs among party activists and core voters and is met with some skepticism by moderates in the establishment … I have another one that’s gonna get me so much hate mail: Sen. Robert Taft, who ran for the Republican nomination in 1952 as a conservative Republican against Eisenhower.
geoffrey.skelley: Oh, Bob Taft — that’s good.
julia_azari: I spent some time with his papers at the Library of Congress this spring, and I found a ton of letters/telegrams to Taft and his campaign managers that were like, “I love your ideas and commitment, but I doubt you’re electable.”
nrakich: That’s amazing, Julia.
geoffrey.skelley: Warren could be “Ms. Democrat” in the same way that Taft was “Mr. Republican.”
micah: OK, so best case for Warren is Reagan or Mc Cain. Worst is Taft? Or maybe Sanders in 2016?
Wait — Julia, did you mean Reagan in 1976 or in 1980?
nrakich: Depends how it works out!
julia_azari: I guess either one? That’s not helpful, I realize, but I think the dynamics are similar.
In 1980, you had an unpopular incumbent from the other party, which is maybe a more clear comparison for 2020. And in 1976, the Democrats were challenging an incumbent under weird circumstances. (It was right after Watergate.)
Edited by M84 on Jun 7th 2019 at 3:01:54 AM
Disgusted, but not surprisedI was more or less resigned to Biden being the candidate before he made his announcement. The DNC and arguably American public don't want the radical economic change we need.
Nothing is going to shake his current lead and it's only going to widen as people perceive he's going to win.
Which will result in him winning.
Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jun 6th 2019 at 3:33:03 AM
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.On the flipside, neither Obama nor Trump were expected to win their primaries. So Biden might not make it. If Warren does more Townhalls like the one in Indiana (and honestly, how many Townhalls does she? She even went to Puerto Rico! Which is great, since most candidate tend to ignore certain areas), then she might gain more and more traction.
And frankly, she is the best candidate. She doesn't have the stink of the 2016 election all over her, she doesn't have a questionable history of touching people weirdly, and her "I have a plan" really caught on. Plus, every time someone asks her about an issue, she packs out a story from her life or a family, thus suggesting that unlike Trump and co she actually gets what those people are talking about (even though she doesn't look that way).
Frankly, there was also a lot of data from the beginning that Trump was more popular than the completely bland and uninteresting candidates of the GOP for 2016. Trump is a racist misogynist rapist possible pedophile but he's never BORING and that carried him from the beginning. The media treated him as a sideshow by giving him nonstop coverage but plenty of us didn't think he'd lose.
Warren and Sanders are the only people who have any name recognition and they have always been on point for their messages—so that they're not going to change opinions that are already made up on them.
Biden can lose voters but I see no sign the others will gain.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.I tend to treat 2016 like an anomaly that won't be repeated,for better or worse
If Trump thinks he can replicate that anomaly that won him 2016 he's going to wind up losing hard,because when your opponents are different you change tactics,Trump will show his tactics only ever worked against Hilary and nobody,plus with closer eyes on Russian interference its going to be harder for them to 'swing' the election for him
have a listen and have a link to my discord serverUh, what? Why on earth would you believe it’s impossible for people to warm up to any candidates? You know a lot of people aren’t following the primary yet, right? Like, vague name recognition isn’t the same as following politics. The debates will change things for each candidate. For myself, I had zero to lukewarm interest in Warren as of two or three months ago, and now I’m donating regularly and strongly support her.
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Warren doesn't have as much name recognition as you might think...or at least, she didn't until she started her town halls. Between them and the debates she will hopefully push up her profile.
And the whole "so far they haven't changed her poll numbers" talking point...yeah, this might be because until this week, there was barely any media coverage on them.
Trump won because the traditional Republican base that would oppose a candidate like him was split like ten ways between wholly interchangeable candidates. If fewer candidates had run during that first debate, he might have been taken out early.
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."Because this campaign isn't starting soon, it's been going on for awhile now. We know the strategies of the people involved. I'm not happy about it but people expecting a turnaround I believe to be wrong.
Biden is better than Trump.
Just worse than everyone else on the ticket.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.The problem is essentially Trump has free advertising and Biden probably wouldn't win. People don't like him that much on either side, the right because he doesn't wanna kill Mexican people and the Left because he is anti-choice. We need to learn from 2016 and pick someone who excites the younger crowd.

Her poll numbers are still not great at this point.
Her favorability did increase a bit in the past few months, but not as much as one might hope.
Which 2020 Candidates Are More (Or Less) Popular Than They ‘Should’ Be?
Biden's initial bubble did burst, likely due to the allegations of bad touching women in the weeks before his campaign announcement.
Still, the article points out that the favorability of candidates not improving much even after months of campaigning is not a good sign.
The 2020 Endorsement Primary
Also, it seems that Biden's gained more endorsements.
Edited by M84 on Jun 6th 2019 at 2:55:07 AM
Disgusted, but not surprised