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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
From 538:
Are The Democratic Debates Already A Mess?
Part of the problem may be that the DNC is overcorrecting in response to the bullshit accusations of "rigging" in 2016. They've made it too easy to qualify in 538's opinion.
- Nate: ...if you can’t both get 65,000 donors AND poll at 1 percent in three polls, there’s probably something pretty wrong with you.
They suggest stuff like making the polling requirement 2% instead of 1%, which would narrow it down to eight candidates. They also (jokingly?) suggested including a minimum donated money amount such as $5 million.
That’s basically what airlines’ frequent flier programs do now — you have to fly a certain amount of miles and spend a certain amount of money.
nrakich: The DNC should be more like airlines — there’s a winning electoral position!
natesilver: Th E Ai R Li Ne In Du St Ry Is Un Fa Ir Ly Ma Li Gn Ed
julia_azari: This debate has been canceled due to mechanical failure. Tomorrow, we fly you to Poughkeepsie instead of Atlanta.
Edited by M84 on May 24th 2019 at 3:34:44 AM
Disgusted, but not surprisedWells Fargo, TD Bank have already given Trump-related financial documents to Congress – The disclosures come as a federal judge ruled Wednesday that two other banks — Deutsche Bank and Capital One — can give financial documents to Congress.
She's trying to create the illusion of resistance to distract from the fact that she refuses to impeach and she's sitting on the contempt charges.
She's keeping the headlines fixed on "Nancy Pelosi said this!" so they won't dwell on "Nancy Pelosi is not doing this."
Edited by TobiasDrake on May 23rd 2019 at 11:18:15 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Thing is, by doing so, she's getting Trump - the impulsive Jerkass that he is - to react to her words, thus making things worse for himself in regards to impeachment. Just look at the blow-up yesterday. She said she believed him to be engaged in a cover-up - and he then torpedoed a likely deal on infrastructure spending that could have made him more popular, because he didn't like what she'd said.
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"Yes. She wants him to keep making an arse of himself so that in 2020, voters will see him as one.
This is not mutually exclusive with her plan being to run out the clock on impeachment/contempt/etc. Her plan is to just make it to the 2020 election so Trump can end his Presidency naturally, while delivering soundbytes to the media about how much he sucks.
It IS a plan. It's just not a very satisfying one. Voters want action, so she gives the illusion of action by saying things like "MAYBE impeachment" to avoid losing them.
Edited by TobiasDrake on May 23rd 2019 at 11:49:48 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.This is not mutually exclusive with her plan being to run out the clock on impeachment/contempt/etc. Her plan is to just make it to the 2020 election so Trump can end his Presidency naturally, while delivering soundbytes to the media about how much he sucks.
Sure, and that's a 100% legitimate strategy.
It's stupid to risk everything on impeachment when an election is less than a year away.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on May 23rd 2019 at 10:49:56 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangA year and a half. Also known as 40% of Trump's Presidency.
But your logic isn't wrong. That's why Pelosi's stalling. The longer she delays action, the easier it is to go, "His Presidency's almost over. It'd be silly to act now anyway."
That's how running out the clock works. It's the same thing Trump's trying to do with his tax returns; just keep obstructing until it doesn't matter anyway.
It is certainly A strategy. But it's an aggravating one. It's frustrating to know that at the end of the day, Trump was right: the Mueller Investigation really was a politically-motivated Witch Hunt after all. Nobody ever had any intention of acting on what we learned, and nobody ever will.
That's going to be a sticking point in 2020, I'm sure. Years and years of investigation with no impeachment and no prosecution of Trump or anyone in his inner circle is not a good look for us. Without concrete actions taken - even if Republicans obstruct - it makes people doubt the authenticity of these investigations.
Every day that we fail to act against Trump, we legitimize his Presidency.
Edited by TobiasDrake on May 23rd 2019 at 11:59:13 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.I apologize for the double post, but I've been thinking about this for a while. I used to be in full agreement that impeachment is a mistake. But I think I was wrong.
What is the first thing you think of when you hear the name, "Bill Clinton"? If you said "Monica Lewinsky", you're an average American citizen. Clinton's impeachment was unsuccessful but it did succeed in making Lewinsky a household name.
When we think of Richard Nixon, we think of Watergate.
Michael Jackson? Pedophile.
O.J. Simpson? Murderer.
Harvey Weinstein? Sexual predator.
George Zimmerman? Murdered a black kid.
Nobody cares about verdicts. In the Court of Public Opinion, the arrest is the only thing that counts. We drag Trump in front of an impeachment trial and it's a statement to the world that he did it. There's nothing Republicans can do to make the world forget.
The world never forgets what you were arrested for. Or, in the case of Presidents, impeached for. It doesn't matter that it's guaranteed to fail. The damage to Trump's electability will already be done by the time McConnell finishes obstructing.
And if even one Republican Senator defects, their name and defecting statement will be plastered all over the headlines for weeks. Just like when Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski became "The Republicans who Saved Obamacare". The news eats that shit up.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Yeah, The checks and balances trying to actually check and balance in a partisan atmosphere... is a witch hunt, now?
Get your head out of your arse, mate. I know you're perpetually angry, but that's being a deliberate idiot.
Mueller's investigation has gone nowhere due to illegal, obstructive government deliberately blocking constitutional oversight (with blatant collusion by the main bloc within the Senate to allow it). Which is by no definition "a political witch hunt".
What it is is a constitutional crisis.
Edited by Euodiachloris on May 23rd 2019 at 7:12:48 PM
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By the same token, though, the GOP pretty much knows that siding with Democrats against Trump on matters of impeachment would get them slandered to hell and back on their propaganda network, resulting in them facing (and likely losing) a Primary challenge come next election. No matter how strong the evidence is, they'll just casually ignore it, sad to say.
All that said, I think it's important to actually instigate the proceedings solely because of the awful precedent it sets for future Presidencies if these types of iniquities don't get addressed. But it's important to do it in such a way that it won't backfire horrendously, and getting Trump to shove his foot further and further into his own mouth and obstructing investigations is a pretty sound plan there.
Edited by ironballs16 on May 23rd 2019 at 2:21:02 PM
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"It has nothing to do with rolling dice.
That the impeachment will end in failure is an absolute certainty.
That people will remember Trump being impeached more than they'll remember his acquittal is supported by years and years of historical evidence.
What is rolling dice is assuming that as long as we stay the course, don't rock the boat, and don't make any noise, a good outcome will naturally assert itself. Reckless optimism is not a strategy. Good things don't just happen. They're achieved by fighting for them and earning them.
Edited by TobiasDrake on May 23rd 2019 at 12:20:57 PM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.![]()
Is that what they’re going to remember? Because there’s a very good chance they’ll remember the exact opposite. A significant portion of the country still believes that Trump was exonerated by Muller since no charges were brought against him.
That’s the dice you’re rolling. There’s very little guarantee of a desired outcome.
Edit: didn’t see the mod note.
Edited by archonspeaks on May 23rd 2019 at 11:23:11 AM
They should have sent a poet.Dropping it per mod note.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.So in some mixed news, the FDA is proposing the use of "Best If Used By" labels
to combat food waste, as "Sell By" and "Use Before" date labeling accounts for roughly 20% of all food tossed in the trash.
And I say "mixed" because, as nice as it'll be for preventing food waste, it could also lead to increases in food poisoning - having suffered from that three times in my life, that is not a fun experience.
Edited by ironballs16 on May 23rd 2019 at 2:41:24 PM
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"People might associate Bill Clinton with Lewinski and all, but it’s also worth remembering that just before Clinton's impeachment, there was a midterm election. Republicans had been expected to make gains in the House, with some projections guessing at Republicans gaining 10 or more seats.
Instead they lost 5, and it ended Gingrich's time as Speaker of the House.
Yeah, 20 years later everyone associates Clinton with scandal, but at the time they didn’t care and a solid majority opposed convicting him.
Today a majority of the public opposes convicting Trump and the Election would be the first held in the wake of an impeachment attempt. Yeah I want to see the bastard gone and Democrats may well have no choice but to move towards charging him if he continues this way, but I’d rather win today than have the cold comfort of being a moral victor 20 years later when everyone agrees Trump was being a criminal in the White House.
You and I and a lot of leftists might want him gone, but believe it or not we’re not everyone on the democratic side.
Edit: Started on this before seeing the mod note, feel free to ignore.
Edited by TheWanderer on May 23rd 2019 at 2:38:41 PM
| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |I think this is something a lot of people here tend to ignore, without realizing it.
Like, people complaining about Doug Jones and red state Democrats, and then there's always the defense of "they have to be a certain way to not rile up the Republicans so much", which is true, but also not all Democrats feel the way we do.
As people often bring up, Jones won largely because of great black turn out, but not all, or even most, black voters identify as liberal/progressive. It's a mistake to think they do or that people like Jones aren't actually trying to represent their constituents just because they're constituents don't feel exactly like you do about everything.

It's more along the lines of "he's like Rudy but even uglier and more of a jerkass." But in more diplomatic terms.
Disgusted, but not surprised