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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Re: trade war and China
When I was Taiwan during the winter, something that I noticed that Trump is held there as the greatest American leader in recent times. Trump’s overtures towards Taiwan have brought the US and ROC closer than they ever have been since relations were ultimately broken off in the 1970s. In contrast, Obama’s repeated appeasements towards China in the name of maintaining stable trade relations led to him being popularly derided as weak and Chamberlain-esque by supporters of the current Democratic Progressive Party, which currently still holds the presidency.
While I desperately want Trump out of power for his domestic policy, his policy towards Taiwan and China
is something that I fear that the Democrats would likely abandon out of misguided anti-Trumpism.
Here’s the Fridge Logic: if China clearly can take the hits from the trade war as many of then posters here allege, then why is the CCP so desperate to relieve the tariffs?
Answer: they’re being hurt bad as more foreign businesses realize the inherent costs of trying to bend over backwards to a country that engages in industrial espionage on a massive scale as part of its foreign policy.
We live in a world where Hollywood has consistently censored itself to sell its films in China, while the CCP has encouraged the production of anti-American films such as the ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ series in contrast. Many Americans seem to desperately cling onto this fantasy of “trade benefits everybody equally!”, when in fact the CCP has been blatant about its own disbelief in that doctrine.
Edited by FluffyMcChicken on May 9th 2019 at 7:58:40 AM
The point is that trade war hurts everyone. Not just the CCP, unfortunately. Especially considering, as Rational pointed out, Trump isn't just hitting China with tariffs.
I'd much prefer sanctions or something over the internment camps.
I agree that the Chinese economy isn't quite as strong and stable as some might think. I've long considered the Chinese economy to be a glued together Paper Tiger.
Edited by M84 on May 9th 2019 at 11:05:14 PM
Disgusted, but not surprisedIts not a matter of speculation as the Chinese lack of growth and pull back has had devastating consequences for them that are being felt everywhere.
Xi was basically put into permanent power because of his promise to continue that growth exponentially.
It's had immense political ramifications for a man who was previously untouchable.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.Yes, the trade war has hurt China.
But it's hurt us just as much. Torching the economy to own the Chinese isn't actually a good policy. And that's what the trade war could do if it continues to escalate. And even if it doesn't that in no way makes the costs worth it.
It has accomplished nothing either economically or in convincing China to improve their human rights record because guess what? When a foreign bully is trying to burn down your economy you aren't going to be willing to give any concessions, especially if you have a national history like China.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangThere's also the idea that Xi Jinping is using this to stir up nationalism. It'd be child's play to frame his resistance to Trump as heroically standing up to filthy Westerners to the Chinese public. Especially since Trump is pretty much the embodiment of the Ugly American.
And if you're upset about the internment camps...well guess what. This trade war isn't doing jack shit to stop them. Especially since the camps aren't even mentioned most of the time when it comes to the trade war.
Edited by M84 on May 10th 2019 at 12:01:23 AM
Disgusted, but not surprisedThat wouldn't even be a lie, China is not at all in the wrong here.
They're facing ideologically motivated foreigners who want to destroy their economy, by refusing pointless concessions he is standing up to people who could be best described as filthy Westerners.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on May 9th 2019 at 9:14:57 AM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangHere's some of the consequences good and bad for Xi.
But slowing economic growth could undermine this balance. Increasing unemployment and falling living standards present a threat to the country’s social cohesion, and thus the ruling party, The Guardian suggested.
Xi said the party’s focus should be on young people and the ideological battles taking place online. “Now, the main front of the ideological struggle is on the internet, and the main audience of the internet is young people,” he said. “Many domestic and foreign forces are trying to develop supporters of their values and even to cultivate opponents of the government.”
The president also announced a raft of new measures that will help stabilize the country’s economy. Xi said party officials would be “highly vigilant” against “black swans” (unpredictable negative economic events) and “grey rhinoceroses” (known risks ignored until it's too late to avoid them).
According to Reuters, Xi said the government would help small businesses with financing issues and support companies if required to protect jobs. He also indicated that China would work to safeguard its interests and workers overseas amid what he called a “turbulent international situation.”
But companies with a lot of debt, which Xi called “zombie firms,” would be dissolved and their workers resettled. The government will also take steps to stabilize the country’s real estate market and ensure a thorough evaluation of financial markets before enacting any policies that may impact them.
Xi warned that technological advances also pose a threat to the party and society. He vowed to introduce new legislation regarding artificial intelligence, gene editing, autonomous vehicles and drones to properly manage the impact of such fields.
Li Datong, a former journalist and critic of Xi, told The Guardian, “There is no political security. There is only regime security.” He suggested regime officials “see the risks of rebellion. As the economy becomes worse, people from all walks of the society can become opponents.”
China’s public security minister, Zhao Kezhi, said last week authorities must be on the lookout for any “color revolutions”—i.e., mass political pro-democracy movements. He said police must “stress the prevention and resistance of color revolutions and firmly fight to protect China’s political security.”
You can imagine it's somewhat difficult for me to keep a cool head about this, given that I'm a USA born Chinese-American of Taiwanese descent whose grandparents are from mainland China and who still have friends in China.
It sometimes feels like I'm being torn apart in all directions.
Edited by M84 on May 10th 2019 at 12:23:47 AM
Disgusted, but not surprisedInteresting, though I will point out that the bolded just means that they may have some disturbances. Not that they won't crush them anyway.
Also, usually this kind of situations tend to benefit the authoritarian government because few things act as more effective unifiers as a common external enemy.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangIt can also disrupt them.
The Communist Party is not going anywhere, certainly not in the near future but the issue isn't necessarily the Communist Party itself but Xi who is a smiling extremist who is personally responsible for a huge amount of the crackdowns and ideological purges. Pope Francis did his best to try to get Chinese churches to stay low because otherwise mass arrests as well as worse would have happened there too. The internment is all on him as well.
Xi's lifetime appointment and position of power can be undermined and perhaps even forced out if just by showing he's not the Strongman he claims to be. I'd like to see him removed from power and replaced, which is more likely than a collapse.
But that's just my thinking.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Except by providing an external enemy, a scapegoat, this trade war may very well help solidify his power in the long run. So long as he doesn't cower before Trump, Xi Jinping will be able to issue propaganda that makes him look like even more of a strongman champion of the people.
This is what happens when strongmen politicians collide. Everyone but them usually ends up suffering for it.
Edited by M84 on May 10th 2019 at 12:36:07 AM
Disgusted, but not surprisedYup, you know life is kicking you when somebody you complained about at the time (for legitimate reasons) suddenly seems like a saner alternative to later prats you get inflicted with.
When Dubya seems not so bad... it's bad. When Hu Jintao comes across as bearable, it's bad. When Major comes across as the last gasp of Tory sanity...
Has China had a single good leader since Sun Yat-Sen?
Also, speaking of China, one thing to be careful of when designing an anti-lootbox-gacha bill is finding ways to ensure that that doesn't end up driving money to Chinese online games (which usually don't give one single fuck about Chinese law, let alone American, even when taking American credit cards).
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: Hu was at least committed to the notion of collegiality, consensus based leadership albeit only within the party, technocratic government, and term limits. Shi has wasted no time in bringing back the worst elements of the personality cult and has centralized basically the entire apparatus not only around himself but also around his personal ideology.
Edited by CrimsonZephyr on May 10th 2019 at 9:00:16 AM
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."

No wonder they're sitting on the contempt stuff. They've got so much more to work through. They probably are making a list of who to charge for contempt not unlike Arya Stark's list.
Disgusted, but not surprised