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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#279301: May 3rd 2019 at 2:43:57 AM

Here's the latest from 538 on the Democratic Primaries:

Does Biden’s Polling Bounce Mean Anything?

Basically, Biden's way out in the lead, while a few others have dropped due to his entry. Warren and Buttigieg however are not among them. 538 also posits that Warren, being the least hurt by Biden's entry, might be in a better position to eventually become a sort of foil to him in the primaries.

Regardless, it's clear that Biden is the front-runner. What's unclear is who is going to be second place.

Silver Bulletpoints: The Union Vote Could Swing The Election

It covers a couple things:

1) Unions could make or break this election. Which is probably why Biden is putting in so much effort appealing to striking workers and unions.

2) The candidates' stance on impeachment might make a difference. 538 posits that Warren's slight bump in the polls might be due to her outspoken views in favor of impeaching Trump.

Edited by M84 on May 3rd 2019 at 5:47:10 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#279302: May 3rd 2019 at 3:31:15 AM

With zero enthusiasm, I believe Biden's lead will increase.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#279303: May 3rd 2019 at 8:00:42 AM

If they really let Biden run, then Trump 2020 is already a done deal.....seriously, it would be so, SO foolish!

Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#279304: May 3rd 2019 at 8:02:31 AM

Okay that is a rather bold prediction. And what do you mean "let" him run?

The DNC can't stop people from running like this. If they could do that they probably would have stopped Sanders a long time ago. And with far better justification considering he only ever joins the Democratic Party out of opportunism rather than wanting to actually be part of it.

Shit, they probably would have stopped Gabbard first if that were an option.

Edited by M84 on May 3rd 2019 at 11:03:26 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#279305: May 3rd 2019 at 8:10:35 AM

I'm fairly sure Biden will win over Trump. He's not going to lose any Democratic voters because anyone who hates him for all he's done still has the choice between him and Trump. He'll also get a decent amount of racist asshole votes.

That's not the issue.

It's what he'd do in office.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on May 3rd 2019 at 8:12:16 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#279306: May 3rd 2019 at 8:13:32 AM

The one silver lining we might get from a Biden presidency, given his recent attempts to woo unions, might be a push for increased unionization in the USA.

Maybe.

Edited by M84 on May 3rd 2019 at 11:14:24 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Larkmarn Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Hello, I love you
#279307: May 3rd 2019 at 8:15:56 AM

It's less what he will do, and more what he won't do. I don't think he'll do much bad. I just don't think he'll do anything great.

I'd almost say that the worst part about President Biden is the message that it sends, that "you know what? Maybe old white guys really should be the only people we run" will be the takeaway.

But then again, in November 2016 I thought the worst thing about President Trump was that it said about our electorate as a whole, and goddamn I was proven wrong.

Found a Youtube Channel with political stances you want to share? Hop on over to this page and add them.
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#279308: May 3rd 2019 at 8:16:17 AM

[up][up][up]That's what they said about Hilary. And look how that turned out.

Edited by kkhohoho on May 3rd 2019 at 10:16:32 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#279309: May 3rd 2019 at 8:18:40 AM

[up][up]I really didn't like what the Trump win said about the American people as a whole either. But I also knew that the worst was yet to come.

Things never go well when you give people like Trump power.

Disgusted, but not surprised
speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#279310: May 3rd 2019 at 8:22:52 AM

Donald Trump's economic #'s are through the roof. But ...

Thoughts on this? The author argues that despite better than expected job numbers that just came out, Trump's approval rating should be higher than it is. They argue that the political environment is too polarized that these numbers are not enough to entice Trump haters (or those who voted for him but became disillusioned) over to voting for him.

I'm not sure I agree. When the economy is doing "well"*, too many people will want to stay the course and not possibly rock the boat by voting for someone else. Plus there's the whole attitude of "Well, yes, Trump is a rude, divisive authoritarian but I'm making more money so I'm willing to look the other way", which unfortunately is more common than people care to admit.

  • "Well" is in quotes because, as with any job report, it doesn't tell the whole picture. Are there a lot of people who just dropped out of the job hunt? What about the underemployed?

Edited by speedyboris on May 3rd 2019 at 10:36:39 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#279311: May 3rd 2019 at 8:25:22 AM

That article I linked to said that it may well be the economic perception is just because people interviewed about it are confident solely because he's a white president.

Then again, everything about Trump seems to be racism.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Soban Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
#279312: May 3rd 2019 at 8:41:53 AM

I think he's an authoritarian who is doing damage to the fundamental things that help create prosperity so I'm going to be voting against him again. However, the economy is a good predictor of reelection. Unemployment is at the lowest level in decades. There are people I know who voted against Trump the first time around who are going to vote for him for reelection because the economy is good. They feel that the economic good he is doing is a lot better for everyone (including minorities) then the harm. That's a huge YMMV, but that is what some people think.

Edited by Soban on May 3rd 2019 at 11:42:40 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#279313: May 3rd 2019 at 8:55:16 AM

I know my grandpa ignores everything else and says Trump is good because of the economy.

But then he also was very sure Obama caused the Great Recession so make of that what you will.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#279314: May 3rd 2019 at 9:02:24 AM

I'm not too stressed about Biden's possibly being our next President. I do like a few others more, but an undeniable fact to my mind is that even Biden at his worst would be an improvement over Trump.

I appreciate how low a bar that is to clear, but I believe it true nonetheless. Every Democrat except Tulsi Gabbard would be a tick in the plus column.

Also how much of the current economy is attributeable to Trump? Enough time has gone by that it can't still be riding Obama's coattails.

Edited by sgamer82 on May 3rd 2019 at 10:05:32 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#279315: May 3rd 2019 at 9:04:52 AM

I'm not thrilled by the idea of President Biden at all. But if he does win the nomination, I'm not about to wring my hands and say this is the worst thing ever.

Because the worst thing would be if Trump gets re-elected.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#279316: May 3rd 2019 at 9:23:57 AM

I think he's an authoritarian who is doing damage to the fundamental things that help create prosperity so I'm going to be voting against him again. However, the economy is a good predictor of reelection. Unemployment is at the lowest level in decades. There are people I know who voted against Trump the first time around who are going to vote for him for reelection because the economy is good. They feel that the economic good he is doing is a lot better for everyone (including minorities) then the harm. That's a huge YMMV, but that is what some people think.

I would say that the good economic conditions are an excellent example of Trump's weakness, with the current state of the economy he should be doing well. But he's not, Trump is still historically unpopular.

The fact he isn't doing well when he very much should emphasize his weakness, that's not to say that he cannot win but the good state of the economy really shows how weak a candidate he is.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
danime91 Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#279317: May 3rd 2019 at 9:35:06 AM

The fact that the economy could be doing better if not for Trump offending and insulting and slapping tariffs on all our trading partners could also be mentioned whenever someone brings up "the economy". Like, it's a miracle that the economy is still doing well, despite everything Trump has done to try and muck it up.

HailMuffins Since: May, 2016 Relationship Status: Shipping fictional characters
#279318: May 3rd 2019 at 9:44:26 AM

How much of the economic well-being of the US can be said to be because of Trump, and not, say, the other hundreds of people that keep the Usonian government running?

I mean, I know little about the economy, probably even less than I think I do, but it's not something so simple that the POTUS can just completely manipulate by himself like that.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#279319: May 3rd 2019 at 9:44:28 AM

Trump's treatment of China is the one area I fully approve of. Not for anything Trump is doing but because his tariffs for unrelated motives are hurting its dictator during his acts of obscene human rights abuses.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#279320: May 3rd 2019 at 9:51:26 AM

How much of the economic well-being of the US can be said to be because of Trump, and not, say, the other hundreds of people that keep the Usonian government running?

Almost nothing, but it doesn't matter. For good or ill people credit the President with economic success and blame them for economic failure.

And that's not really something that's likely to change.

Trump's treatment of China is the one area I fully approve of. Not for anything Trump is doing but because his tariffs for unrelated motives are hurting its dictator during his acts of obscene human rights abuses.

Tariffs also hurt everyone else, inconveniencing China's government is not worth making products more expensive and possibly causing a trade war that causes our economy to meltdown.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on May 3rd 2019 at 9:52:56 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#279321: May 3rd 2019 at 9:53:33 AM

People blame the president for everything really regardless of whether it's accurate or not, because they (understandably) don't necessarily understand the cause and effect of a system that is very complex.

ciyinwanderer Since: Dec, 2018
#279322: May 3rd 2019 at 10:00:06 AM

[[up][up][up]]

But is Xi actually suffering at all from this? I haven't seen much indicating that he or his administration is suffering at all from this. So it's average folk on both sides of the ocean getting hurt by the economic policies, and is an entirely separate issue from the genocides happening on both sides of the oceans.

Edited by ciyinwanderer on May 3rd 2019 at 1:00:45 PM

This signature was thumped to preserve the dignity of the moderators.
Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#279323: May 3rd 2019 at 10:04:30 AM

The economy thing makes me somewhat nervous, whether or not trump is responsible for it getting better people will see it as his doing and vote for him.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#279324: May 3rd 2019 at 10:09:14 AM

Sometime I’d like to do a deeper dive into how we define a “good” economy, because, uh, the horrific healthcare costs, housing costs, massive student loan debt, increase in contractor (not employee) jobs, and stagnating wages aren’t my idea of good.

singularityshot Since: Dec, 2012
#279325: May 3rd 2019 at 10:15:21 AM

I'd also say that once an economy is considered "recovered" and that there are no headwinds expected, it does tend to fade into the back of people's minds. We get complacent, and think that there is no reason that a stable and growing economy cannot continue on that way forever.

In other words, the economy may be going great but people will see it as natural and thus be less inclined to give anyone credit for it, be that Trump or Obama. Instead, it's going to be "secondary" issues that will come to the fore, such as healthcare, education or even climate change. I call them "secondary" issues not to diminish them, but to highlight the fact that they tend to be forgotten if the economy starts to flounder.

So, on a strict political lens the best move for the Democrats is to hope that the Trump administration continues in its efforts to repeal the ACA (esp. with regards to pre-existing conditions) because I reckon that will be more important in voters' minds than the economy if the economy is still going strong in 2020. (I say strict political lens because obviously I don't want the ACA to be repealed given how harmful such a repeal would be.)


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