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CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#279076: Apr 29th 2019 at 1:03:04 AM

I think Hillary Clinton's loss is one of those things people keep trying to treat as a Riddle for the Ages. The fact it elected Kefka (the best fictional equivalent I can think of for Trump) to the Presidency is probably the reason why because you'd think no sane person would vote for him.

However, the fact was she lost by a very small amount and there were hundreds of tiny things going against her. Worrying about any single one of them is silly.

Is it weird that many white women found Trump more appealing than Hillary Clinton to vote for? I don't actually think so. A lot of people assumed that a rising tide raises all boats but I think for a lot of women, it was no different than why people would assume men would vote for a man over women. They didn't see a female President as a massive change in power dynamics the way Obama was for many.

(translation: White women can be racist to the exclusion of other motivations too)

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Apr 29th 2019 at 5:05:14 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Wildcard Since: Jun, 2012
#279077: Apr 29th 2019 at 6:31:02 AM

Honestly, I think because of our fucking stupid electoral college and the lies Agent Orange told about abortion we'll probably be getting four more years of Trump. A lot of people in just the right areas are stupid and unfortunately many stupid people have more of a vote then people who didn't vote for a white supremacist as President.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#279078: Apr 29th 2019 at 6:36:29 AM

Some possible good news:

GOP warning about socialism not resonating with many voters

https://apnews.com/ca0309e344da4f539366c5992ecb5ea6

ALAMOSA, Colo. (AP) — In this scruffy, high-desert town encircled by prairies and potato farms, Sen. Cory Gardner drew shouts of approval last week for his message that Democrats are shoving the country toward socialism.

“That’s not what government is or what it should be,” he told about 200 Alamosa County Republicans at a barbecue fundraiser in a National Guard armory. “We have to stand up and fight. Are you going to join me in this fight?”

For Gardner and other Republicans making the same pitch , including President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mc Connell, the key question is whether it will attract moderate voters, not just their conservative stalwarts. Based on interviews with over three dozen Coloradans last week from Denver’s suburbs south to this town in the flat San Luis Valley, the argument has yet to take root, though the GOP has 18 months to sell it before Election Day 2020.

Few volunteered a drift toward socialism as a major worry, with health care and living costs cited far more frequently. Several said capitalism was too embedded in the U.S. to be truly threatened and Republicans were using socialism to stir unease with Democrats by raising the specter of the old, repressive Soviet Union and today’s chaotic Venezuela.

“They’re preying on fear,” said David Kraemer, 67, a financial adviser who’s not registered with a political party and lives in the Denver suburb of Westminster.

Yet when asked directly whether socialism was a concern, many expressed a wariness of injecting more government into people’s lives. Rather than naming policies that troubled them, many mentioned two self-proclaimed democratic socialists: Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, who’s seeking the Democratic presidential nomination , and freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. The comments suggested that Republicans might be tapping into unease over letting either party go too far.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#279079: Apr 29th 2019 at 6:38:44 AM

Generally speaking,most Presidents win their first election anyway,without a Google I can't recall any who lost their first term either,so the scenarios I mentioned earlier aren't too farfetched.

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TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#279080: Apr 29th 2019 at 7:04:25 AM

So, on a lark, I went to Politifact and decided to rank some of our politicians on a "Truthfulness" scale. Just seemed like a neat idea. Politifact assigns categories of "True", "Mostly True", "Half True", "Mostly False", "False", and "Pants on Fire" to statements made by a person on a scorecard.

I took that scorecard and gave it a point value. 5 points for True, 0 for Pants on Fire, with the spectrum inbetween. Here's what I got, keeping in mind that 2-3 is the barrier between Half True and Mostly False.

For context:

  • Former President Barack Obama - 3.3 Truthfulness.

So, with that in mind, I ran the 2016 candidates.

  • Donald Trump - 1.9
  • Hillary Clinton - 3.3

And from there moved on to our current slew of Democrats, sticking mainly to the ones who have recognizable enough names that I could remember them off the top of my head.

  • Bernie Sanders - 3.2
  • Elizabeth Warren - 3.6
  • Joe Biden - 3.3
  • Kamala Harris - 3.1

Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 29th 2019 at 8:07:35 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#279081: Apr 29th 2019 at 7:05:52 AM

I have to wonder if that scale is weighted more towards lies because Politifact only examines statements that are contested. I mean, do they score every single statement that Obama ever made publicly? If he says, "good morning", do they rate him as True because it is, in fact, morning? Less pithily, if he says, "Today I asked Congress to X," do they evaluate it factually? What are the criteria?

Edited by Fighteer on Apr 29th 2019 at 10:07:11 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#279082: Apr 29th 2019 at 7:08:17 AM

That is a good question, the answer to which would totally affect the stats here.

But so far as what we have on the scorecards, it's interesting, at least. Strictly in terms of political honesty (as influenced by the potential margin of error noted above), Biden and Clinton both represent a return to form to the days of the Obama administration. Sanders is slightly less honest than the three of them, with Harris trailing behind him.

Elizabeth Warren, however, is a bit more reliable than any of them. And Trump just sucks.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 29th 2019 at 8:10:17 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#279083: Apr 29th 2019 at 7:10:06 AM

Trump is like broken hoover,instead of sucking in air he blows all around the room instead

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TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#279084: Apr 29th 2019 at 7:10:23 AM

It's also worth noting that it only goes back so far. I tried to do a point ranking for George W. and found that he doesn't actually have a scorecard on account of him having very few statements recorded on Politifact.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#279085: Apr 29th 2019 at 7:35:14 AM

Four of the twenty people running for the Democratic nomination have yet to meet the requirements for debate participation: Eric Swalwell, Seth Moulton, Wayne Messam, and writer Marianne Williamson.

The other sixteen have qualified under either one or both of the requirements set by the party to qualify, with the most popular candidates being in that both category.

Edited by Parable on Apr 29th 2019 at 7:35:34 AM

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#279086: Apr 29th 2019 at 7:36:07 AM

Please god, let it stay that way. Suck it, Moulton.

Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#279087: Apr 29th 2019 at 7:45:39 AM

What's wrong with Seth Moulton exactly?

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Grafite Since: Apr, 2016 Relationship Status: Less than three
#279088: Apr 29th 2019 at 8:19:06 AM

[up] He spearheaded an embarrassing effort to stop Pelosi from becoming speaker again for being too liberal and is adamant to let primary voters know he's not a socialist, but a democrat (?).

Life is unfair...
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#279089: Apr 29th 2019 at 8:19:15 AM

To all four of those, I say, "...wait, who is this now?"

I think, before the debates, we should take a poll across America and the ten or so people with the highest "Who dis?" score automatically get cut from the list.

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AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#279090: Apr 29th 2019 at 8:23:58 AM

[up] Seth Moulton has been described above.

Eric Swalwell served on the House Intelligence Committee. Like Inslee or Yang, he is something of a single-issue candidate, for gun control.

Wayne Messam is a mayor of a city in Florida, don't remember which one.

Marianne Williamson is...an author, I guess? I don't know much about any of these people, sorry.

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#279091: Apr 29th 2019 at 8:45:02 AM

Swalwell has been this week’s right wing boogeyman for his gun control advocacy after the Nazi attack on a synagogue this Saturday.

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#279092: Apr 29th 2019 at 9:36:31 AM

Generally speaking,most Presidents win their first election anyway,without a Google I can't recall any who lost their first term either,so the scenarios I mentioned earlier aren't too farfetched.

We'll, I did the research for you. tongue

There were in fact nine presidents who lost the election while incumbent. That's exactly a fifth of all presidents. You'll understand why I phrased it that way when you see the list:

John Adams
John Quincy Adams
Martin Van Buren
Grover Cleveland
William Taft
Herbert Hoover
Gerald Ford
Jimmy Carter
George H. W. Bush

Edited by tclittle on Apr 29th 2019 at 11:41:21 AM

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#279093: Apr 29th 2019 at 9:50:59 AM

Interesting,so it's not impossible,and has happened,cheers

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#279094: Apr 29th 2019 at 10:02:43 AM

[up]X5 The current criteria is only for the first two debates, from the third debate onwards the criteria will be different and has been said to be tougher and result in there being fewer people on stage.

If we're currently allowing 20 people I expect it to be in single digits by the last debate, after Iowa and New Hampshire we should hopefully be down to five at most.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#279095: Apr 29th 2019 at 10:03:45 AM

Bonus Round: Millard Fillmore and Franklin Pierce not only couldn't win second terms, they couldn't even win renomination from their own parties to run.

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#279096: Apr 29th 2019 at 10:15:41 AM

[up] I was only paying attention to the main election, so thanks for that.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#279097: Apr 29th 2019 at 10:24:12 AM

No prob. Only difference it makes is that the ratio goes from one fifth to just under one fourth of all presidents failing to get a second term they wanted.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#279098: Apr 29th 2019 at 10:28:59 AM

Interesting,so it's not impossible,and has happened,cheers

Yeah, it's implausible rather than impossible.

And considering that Trump is historically unpopular.... If anyone could be a one term President it's him smile

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#279099: Apr 29th 2019 at 10:39:23 AM

LBJ should also be counted, as he only won a single term but wanted to win a second.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Clarste One Winged Egret Since: Jun, 2009 Relationship Status: Non-Canon
One Winged Egret
#279100: Apr 29th 2019 at 10:41:13 AM

I would attribute the incumbent effect to the psychological fact that most people are much more afraid of losing what they already have than they are excited to gain something, even when the two options are statistically identical. So your average, mildly apathetic voter is more afraid of a new president making things worse than they are excited for a new president to improve their lives.

Edited by Clarste on Apr 29th 2019 at 10:41:33 AM


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