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M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278951: Apr 27th 2019 at 1:21:09 AM

[up][up]Buttigieg has somehow managed to hit double digits (barely) in a number of polls, despite having only announced and started campaigning very recently.

Edit:

So 538 Nate Silver revised his "tiers" for likely Democratic Primary winner based on the polls:

Silver Bulletpoints: I’m Revising My 2020 Tiers To Better Match The Polling

1a. Biden

1b. Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg

2a. Warren, O'Rourke

2b. Booker, Klobuchar, Abrams

3a. Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee, Yang

3b. Bennet, Hickenlooper, Ryan, Bullock

For Warren supporters, Nate offers his two cents on why Warren isn't polling well, and how she can still pull a win, particularly against Sanders.

Warren epitomizes what I think of as a Tier 2 candidate. She’s not polling like one of the front-runners. And her endorsements and fundraising totals don’t have her at the top of the field. She may still be dealing with the fallout of her DNA test, so you wouldn’t say her campaign has gone according to script.

But it’s easy enough to imagine scenarios where she becomes a front-runner. Voters could gradually overcome their doubts about her electability. Or she could maybe reorient perceptions if she keeps focusing on policy. Rank-and-file voters don’t care that much about policy, but being policy-focused can be a good way to get favorable media coverage and influence party activists.

Or if Sanders falters, maybe Warren would stand to gain ground as the leading candidate of the left. Or would she? One question is why she hasn’t picked up more support from Sanders voters in the first place. Her policy proposals, if anything, have been a little bolder than his — for instance, she proposed a wealth tax rather than just an increased estate tax. Yet she’s sitting at 7 percent in the polls while he’s at 20.

He suspects that the key difference between Warren and Sanders that could make or break either of them is this: Sanders doesn't respect the Democratic Party or its institutions, while Warren more or less does ("DNC rigged primaries" notwithstanding).

It’s about the candidates’ attitudes toward American institutions, including the institution of capitalism. Perhaps by extension, it’s also about attitudes toward the institution of the Democratic Party, of which Sanders isn’t a member. If Sunkara is right, it means Sanders and Warren may not be swimming in the same lane after all. It may also mean Sanders’s upside is limited since it’s hard to win the Democratic nomination when running against the Democratic Party.

And here's their roundup of the candidates' actions recently:

What The Potential 2020 Candidates Are Doing And Saying, Vol. 16

Edited by M84 on Apr 27th 2019 at 4:36:52 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Hylarn (Don’t ask)
#278952: Apr 27th 2019 at 1:40:20 AM

I think there's a pretty simple explanation for how well Sanders is doing, though? He managed to build up a cult of personality around himself during the 2016 election, when he was proposing a bunch of new ideas and running against a widely hated opponent

On a related note, part of Warren's problem is likely that people that's normally be into what she has to say are instead supporting Sanders, who they think has more of a chance

Edited by Hylarn on Apr 27th 2019 at 4:22:51 AM

Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#278953: Apr 27th 2019 at 3:20:10 AM

I don't want to sound confrontional, but the whole "This minority is more oppressed than this" is extremely out of place and even somewhat disturbing, to be honest. There are a sizeable number of Latinos too who could "pass as white". Are they "profitting from white supremacy" too?

Besides, what "passing as white" implies is basically "Well, as long as he keeps being gay/jewish a secret, he isn't getting discriminated, so why the hell does he complain?" Do you see the problem with that?

Honestly, just stop this nonsense. This isn't a game of who is the most oppressed and this kind of infighting is exactly what the left does NOT need at the moment. We shouldn't let stuff like this seperate us.

Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278954: Apr 27th 2019 at 4:25:43 AM

[up]If you're trying to avoid being confrontational, why are you bringing this up again after we had already moved on pages and hours ago?

Disgusted, but not surprised
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#278955: Apr 27th 2019 at 5:03:19 AM

If you're trying to avoid being confrontational, why are you bringing this up again after we had already moved on pages and hours ago?

Presumably, because they felt like it was worth saying but didn't want to start a fight over it.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278956: Apr 27th 2019 at 5:18:05 AM

The point is that we had already stopped for a while. It would at least have made more sense if we were still on that kick.

That last paragraph was also ironically enough, fairly confrontational.

Nothing annoys people more than claiming they need to stop nonsense long after they already had stopped.

Edited by M84 on Apr 27th 2019 at 8:19:39 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#278957: Apr 27th 2019 at 5:36:13 AM

Plus, this was never about who is more oppressed. It was always about the question if Bernie reads for the voters as "white" or as "jewish"....and since his name isn't "George Soros" I am pretty sure that a lot of people would perceive him as "white" unless there is more coverage about his faith in the US in general than you would see if you are seeing the coverage more on a "big international outlet" level. Who knows, maybe Fox mentions that he is jewish all the time, but as far as I know, they prefer to portray him has "socialist" with all the misleading implications connected to the term. (Doesn't help that Bernie himself often mislabels himself, frankly, he could counter this nonsense better if he would call himself a "social democrat".)

Edited by Swanpride on Apr 27th 2019 at 5:55:28 AM

Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#278958: Apr 27th 2019 at 5:48:35 AM

It was a polite formality. I WAS quite confrontional tbh, because I feel like this whole debate is rather toxic. As for chiming in after its done: Sry, only saw the argument after it was over, but still wanted to say my part.

But alright, I won't dwell on it any longer.

Edited by Forenperser on Apr 27th 2019 at 2:49:18 PM

Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#278959: Apr 27th 2019 at 6:33:20 AM

People basically need to accept that to improve all branches of government, you need to get the public to vote good people in.

I refer you to this quote from Duckman, emphasis added:

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#278960: Apr 27th 2019 at 6:34:33 AM

Duckman's rants aren't as enlightening as they sound

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
smokeycut Since: Mar, 2013
#278961: Apr 27th 2019 at 6:41:49 AM

So, I think Biden is starting to slip, just slightly, in public perception. Him invoking Heather Hayer’s murder in his campaign video offended off her family enough that they went on CNN to talk about it. I keep seeing Dems on twitter retweet it.

So uh. Biden definitely isn’t a sure winner. His gaffes could very easily sink him by the end of the primary, especially as more people learn about his inappropriate touching and the Anita Hill stuff.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278962: Apr 27th 2019 at 6:42:44 AM

[up]Wait for the next set of polls. We'll see the impact then, if there is any.

The thing is, the shit that makes Biden offensive to us? That really isn't a dealbreaker for a lot of Democratic base voters.

If it does bleed his voters, they'll probably go to Harris or something.

Edited by M84 on Apr 27th 2019 at 9:44:49 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
smokeycut Since: Mar, 2013
#278963: Apr 27th 2019 at 6:45:50 AM

Eh, I disagree. I think “Joe Biden namedrops murder victim without permission of her family” is the sort of thing that does get under your average Democrat’s skin.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278964: Apr 27th 2019 at 6:47:16 AM

[up]The question is if it's enough to make them go for another candidate.

Remember that Biden's creepy behavior hasn't actually turned off a lot of voters in the past. It wouldn't surprise me if this blows over too.

Edited by M84 on Apr 27th 2019 at 9:47:59 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#278965: Apr 27th 2019 at 6:54:32 AM

In 6-1 Decision, Kansas' State Supreme Court ruled that the Kansas Constitution protects a woman's right to get an Abortion, striking down the 'Kansas Unborn Child Protection from Dismemberment Abortion' Act, which had made illegal dilation and evacuation abortions. Since the ruling was based on the State's Constitution and laws, and not based on Federal laws, it can not be repealed.

This is a good day for Women's Rights, especially in Kansas.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278966: Apr 27th 2019 at 6:58:10 AM

Course now the anti-abortion assholes are trying to get Kansas voters to add an abortion ban to the state constitution itself.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#278967: Apr 27th 2019 at 7:12:48 AM

Remember that Biden's creepy behavior hasn't actually turned off a lot of voters in the past. It wouldn't surprise me if this blows over too.

I don't think this is a good comparison, the people who aren't bothered by the creepy behavior are generally more moderate and think #Me Too! is going too quickly. So it makes sense that they wouldn't view it as a deal breaker, using a murdered woman as a political ad and earning the very public ire of her mother is something that is not so easily waved away.

Does it mean that Biden is automatically sunk? Of course not, but I think it would be a mistake to view it in the same way as his contact with women. There's rather different.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#278968: Apr 27th 2019 at 7:13:06 AM

[up][up]

Well duh - remember, that was the plan for gay marriage prior to the Supreme Court saying unambiguously otherwise.

As for the Federalist Papers quote - In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself.

Something to keep in mind is that the initial Articles of Confederation gave entirely too little power to the government, to the point that the army wasn't being paid at all because the Federal government had no way to get the States to chip in, leading to the Newburgh Conspiracy and Washington's famous Shaming the Mob speech. So that particular thought is absolutely on-point with that in mind.

Edited by ironballs16 on Apr 27th 2019 at 10:13:17 AM

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278969: Apr 27th 2019 at 7:14:12 AM

[up][up]Either way, we'll have to wait for polls in a few days to see if there's a noticeable dip.

And to see which candidates benefit from that dip.

Actually we might have to wait for polls from the week after for a more clear picture.

Edited by M84 on Apr 27th 2019 at 10:15:38 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#278970: Apr 27th 2019 at 8:14:16 AM

Biden is relying a lot on being seen as electable, if his numbers against Trump slip (which they likely will as Republicans turns against him more now he’s officially running) or the numbers for others go up (which they could as democrats know them for more than the first impression), Biden could be in a fair bit of trouble.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278971: Apr 27th 2019 at 8:20:12 AM

538's article did point out that "electability" could be inflating Biden's poll numbers. So deflating confidence in Biden or rising confidence in other candidates could cause a real shift.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#278972: Apr 27th 2019 at 8:22:12 AM

That would be nice, I really despise electability's use in practice.

It's too often used as a tool for moderate white guys against women and people of color who hold actually ambitious positions.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Apr 27th 2019 at 8:22:41 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278973: Apr 27th 2019 at 8:23:41 AM

[up]Which still doesn't explain how a white woman is trailing behind in "electability" behind people who aren't straight white men. Booker, Harris, Buttigieg, even Gabbard...they are all ahead of Warren in terms of "electability" in some surveys.

Disgusted, but not surprised
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#278974: Apr 27th 2019 at 8:24:55 AM

Probably because she reminds people of Hillary Clinton, and Clinton lost aganinst Trump. It's hard to have a more compelling evidence of unelectability than this (other than actually losing an election oneself).

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Forenperser Foreign Troper from Germany Since: Mar, 2012
Foreign Troper
#278975: Apr 27th 2019 at 8:33:33 AM

Harris reminds me of Clinton far more.

Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian

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