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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#278651: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:09:05 AM

Assuming that the pattern from past polling data holds up, we'd likely be looking at Biden vs Sanders by the end, and unfortunately I see Biden winning that one.

I'd still like to wait and see until the primaries start though, but looking at this data I understand why people are saying that Biden winning is likely.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278652: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:10:24 AM

I've learned to trust 538's analysis of such things. They know their statistics.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#278653: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:10:55 AM

Well, a lot can happen along the way...everything from unexpected scandals to heart attacks.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278654: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:11:22 AM

[up]I hope that's not implying what I think it's implying. You're not actually hoping for Biden or Sanders to have a heart attack right?

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 12:11:46 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#278655: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:20:17 AM

[up] I am hoping for nothing. I am pointing out that a lot can happen. There are a lot of people involved who are older than the average life expectancy, and that includes Trump, btw.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278656: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:22:44 AM

[up]Warren's not exactly a spring chicken either. She's 69 (turns 70 in June), only a few years younger than Trump.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 12:23:26 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#278657: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:24:20 AM

(However, the mean life expectancy of women is longer than that of men, so if we are grading politicians by "how likely is s/he to keel over in the next year" she should be considered even younger than her numerical age if we compare her to Trump)

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#278658: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:24:22 AM

[up][up] I know. Plus, people sometimes just fall ill or have a sudden heart attack, regardless of age. The high age of the candidates just makes something like this happening more likely.

Edited by Swanpride on Apr 25th 2019 at 9:24:40 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#278659: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:24:42 AM

An older nominee is fine in my books (all other factors considered), as long as they go for a youngish and qualified running mate. Don't obsess over health without cause, just ask them to address reasonable risks, etc.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278660: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:24:44 AM

[up][up][up]Yes, there is that to consider as well.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 12:24:59 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#278661: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:40:58 AM

If we're still discussing the 538 piece, I think its worth mentioning that even they said it was too early to tell at the end. So we probably should not be using this early 2019 poll as the end all be all on who the best candidate is.

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278662: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:43:33 AM

[up]They mentioned it's too early to stick a fork in it and say it's done. They simply mentioned that the data strongly favors Biden.

And it's not just early 2019 polls. They're also looking at the early primary polls of the last forty years. That's where the idea that early polls are not "bullshit" is coming from.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 12:48:11 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#278663: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:48:06 AM

[up] Oh, I know Biden will likely be a strong contender. However, with two years out, I'm going to hold off on saying Warren's out for the count or that Biden will remain strong forever. Remember, Jeb! was the front runner early in the 2016 primaries. Now, no one cares about him save for some somewhat trollish DSA members.

Edited by AzurePaladin on Apr 25th 2019 at 12:48:16 PM

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278664: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:50:13 AM

[up]The 538 article does cover the 2016 GOP primaries too. And they have an explanation for why the data actually foreshadowed Trump's primary win.

The point that article was making is that paying close attention to the early primary polls would have made "surprises" like Obama's win and Trump's win not all that surprising.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 12:51:45 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#278665: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:51:32 AM

Easy to explain the data in hindsight, but the reporting at the time doesn’t match with the retroactive “actually we totally predicted this” excuse.

AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#278666: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:52:23 AM

[up][up] The chunk of article you posted (before you ninja'd) even said that that logic could not be easily be applied to Democrats though.

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278667: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:53:28 AM

[up]Not as easily, because Democratic primaries don't elect the frontrunner as reliably as the GOP primaries. But they still do it more often than not.

Hence why Biden's chances are better than those of most of the other candidates.

So now we’ve gone through every cycle from 1972 to 2016 and found that the early polling leader often went on to win a party’s nomination, and the early polls, once they were adjusted for name recognition, often foreshadowed the rise of notable candidates. In the final part of our series, we’ll move beyond the descriptive and dive deep into the trends that emerge from the entire 1972 to 2016 period, drawing some statistical conclusions about how meaningful early primary polls really are.

Their ultimate conclusion was that even early on, primary polls are fairly reliable indicators.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 12:59:06 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Grafite Since: Apr, 2016 Relationship Status: Less than three
#278668: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:58:23 AM

@Tobias: You seem to be unwilling to accept there are people who are going to vote for Biden or Sanders because they genuinely like their ideas, not just because they're white guys or afraid of diversity. A repeat of questionable points from the last primaries...

Life is unfair...
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278669: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:59:14 AM

If it's any consolation, Biden's victory is not guaranteed. I've already posted a 538 article about how Biden still has his work cut out for him. If he does approach this campaign as if it's just a formality, that arrogance will cost him the win.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 1:00:23 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#278670: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:59:27 AM

[up][up]That’s not what Tobias said at all.

Edited by wisewillow on Apr 25th 2019 at 9:59:37 AM

KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#278671: Apr 25th 2019 at 10:01:04 AM

I do wonder if people here might be letting their personal biases influence their predictions.

Biden does seem to be doing well in early polls, but we’ll see how long that lasts.

Oh God! Natural light!
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278672: Apr 25th 2019 at 10:02:26 AM

Funny thing is, I actually like Biden the least among the candidates.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 1:02:37 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#278673: Apr 25th 2019 at 10:05:32 AM

[up]...Excepting Gabbard, I presume? I mean, I'm with you on Biden being around last, but Gabbard remains my least favorite.

[up][up] I don't know how much support Biden has here, if that's what you're saying. He tends to be one of the only candidates here that get a more negative reaction that Sanders.

Edited by AzurePaladin on Apr 25th 2019 at 1:07:52 PM

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278674: Apr 25th 2019 at 10:07:25 AM

[up]At this point I'm comforting myself with the idea that she has zero chance of winning. So I'm going to try to pretend she's not in the primaries.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 1:07:45 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#278675: Apr 25th 2019 at 10:07:35 AM

The only thing which is pointed out is that it easy to look at polls in hindsight and then claim that they were correct predictions one way or another. And yet they were not predicted that way back in the day. So maybe they have found a totally new way to interpret polls based on what they have discovered now. But in order to show that, they would first need to predict it correctly this time around, and not just in the numbers but also in interpreting the number correctly. And we will only know if they did once the election is over, so the polls are something one might notice, but not something set in stone.

Also, I get the impression that democrats often vote more tactical, looking for the candidate they think is most likely to win the actual election.


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