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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Yeah, I don't think the average voter has any idea who she is. To them, she's Democrat Politician #196. They might know she exists, but that's about it.
I know people worry about the DNA test but she already bit that bullet last year. It's had time and still has time to fall out of the public consciousness.
Trump is guaranteed to hammer her on it if she wins the nomination, but this isn't like BUT HER EMAILS THO. That was a persistent ongoing FBI investigation that was actively ongoing and featuring new developments during Hillary's nomination. It was current events.
There's nothing new to develop regarding the DNA test. It's done, it's over, the headlines have all been written, no one cares anymore. Which means when Trump starts in about "POCAHONTAS" this and "POCAHONTAS" that, it'll confuse voters more than it will enrage and motivate them.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 25th 2019 at 9:32:47 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.![]()
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Biden was middle of the pack in 2008, at best. Despite having a team to help him, he completely bungled his response on the creepy hugging. Oh, and remember the time he told millenials to stop whining because things were harder in his day?
Warren knows her shit. I think she’d steamroll him.
Edited by wisewillow on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:33:34 AM
But even that is more than some of the other low-name recognition candidates had.
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Which still doesn't quite explain how Buttigieg is still polling slightly higher than Warren, according to some polls here.
National 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polls
Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:38:33 PM
Disgusted, but not surprised
x2 I'm pretty sure everyone's going to steamroll Biden, considering he's ran for President like 3(?) times before becoming Vice President. I honestly can't see him win; he has too much baggage, he's not what the Democrats want right now, and there are so many better candidates then him in this field. Personally, I expect Sanders to pull it off this time, though he's not my first choice to be honest.
I've said this before, and I'll say it again: I think (though it'll take until we have a new President to fully prove this) that Trump is proving the resiliency of America's democratic institutions. Compare the US to the UK, to Hungary, and to Poland, all of which are under threat from right-wing populist governments. Unlike the latter three, our grassroots are generally united, will agree to accept any plan and any President from Warren to Biden so long as that candidate is elected through a proper primary, and are preparing a range of strategies to counterpunch the corruption of our court system, up to and including court-packing if we absolutely must. (I wish that there was more willingness to take federal action against rogue state governments, but we can't have everything.)
Compare the UK, where the entire national media is controlled by two men who are spreading wall-to-wall disinformation on a scale that they only wish Murdoch could do in the US. Compare Hungary, where politics have gone so topsy-turvy that their fascist party has become one of their leading defenders of democracy because nobody else has been able to unite against the dictator.
I think we're doing pretty well.
People really don't care much.for.What happens outside their homes.
And despite all of the good damage control, Trump still had found a way to weaken organizations that many people here wanted.
Saying "It could be worse" is the truth. But it doesn't comfort anyone.
Edited by KazuyaProta on Apr 25th 2019 at 10:45:02 AM
Watch me destroying my country![]()
Are you kidding me. That is blatantly wrong. Whether Trump should be impeached for flagrant obstruction of justice is still a matter of debate, he’s stacked SCOTUS and the federal courts with Mitch Mc Connell’s help, SCOTUS may let him rig the census by adding a white supremacist citizenship question to skew the data, half the executive agencies are run by “acting” heads who haven’t been approved by the Senate, there are children in fucking camps, Republican legislatures are trying to limit voting rights by overruling/undermining voter referendums, and are taking power away from Democratic governors, Sinclair media is pushing hundreds of local stations to run pro Trump/GOP propaganda... what fantasy land are you in??
Edited by wisewillow on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:52:04 AM
I would also wait before getting too invested in the idea of Biden winning the nomination and thinking other candidates (outside of maybe Gabbard) are dead in the water. Once the primaries actually start we'll have a better idea of the situation.
He's certainly not what anyone in OTC wants, that's for sure.
Which somehow doesn't keep him from still being the leader in the early polls.
I'm pretty sure whatever lead he has is due to a combination of three factors:
1) Association with Obama
2) Name recognition
3) Most people are not all that well-informed about policies or the specifics of each candidate, especially not at this stage. The amount of low-information and low-investment voters is pretty big. So it's not like most of them will know about Biden being grabby towards women, his numerous gaffes, etc.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:48:05 AM
@M84: Warren has the problem that a lot of people that would have voted for her are already committed to Sanders, while everyone else seems to have more or less dismissed her as not electable for one reason or another.
In many ways she is kind of an ideal compromise candidate, but things are pretty polarized at the moment, which is probably why her and other candidates on the more progressive side are failing to find traction.
x4 Yeah, that's something that was acknowledged by 538 too I think. There's too much overlap between potential Sanders supporters and potential Warren supporters. And for better or worse, most of them seem to be going for Sanders.
Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:50:13 PM
Disgusted, but not surprisedTo add to this, don't forget he is also now ordering people, both inside the government and out, not to comply with federal subpoenas.
We are now in a Constitutional Crisis where people are receiving contradictory orders from different branches of government. The Legislative is demanding the turnover of documents and testimony, and the Executive is demanding a refusal to acquiesce. Trump's Executive branch is telling people to violate the law.
And unlike his previous attempts to obstruct justice, they're obeying him this time. Carl Kline's attorney put it succinctly
.
So that's a thing too.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 25th 2019 at 9:54:07 AM
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Yes. Here's a more indepth look at the primaries history.
How Early Primary Polls Foreshadowed Surprises Like Obama’s Rise And Trump’s Win
Note that in the 2008 primaries, Obama was less well known than Clinton but didn't actually trail too far behind her in polls.
Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 12:04:38 AM
Disgusted, but not surprisedI think the most effective solution to the whole “electability or effectiveness” debacle is pretty straightforward: the democrats should have their primary election be in a different vote format, either single transferable vote ranked choice, or approval voting. I’m sure there are logistical hurdles, but honestly, even if there weren’t, I’m not getting my hopes up.
If, as it appear, my post is the source of your confusion, I’ll clarify. Both of those systems allow voters to say, “if my first choice doesn’t win, I’d be okay with these others.” There are pros and cons to each that I won’t pretend to fully understand, but one thing they both have going for them is that you don’t have to give up a vote for your favorite candidate just to make sure a less-well liked candidate beats your least favorite candidate.
Edited by ShinyCottonCandy on Apr 25th 2019 at 12:08:55 PM
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Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:30:42 PM
Disgusted, but not surprised