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In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278626: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:30:24 AM

[up][up]I think a good number of people in the USA know who she is. She's at least nowhere near as unknown as Sanders was in 2015, Obama was in 2007, or say Buttigieg in 2019.

Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:30:42 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#278627: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:31:56 AM

Yeah, I don't think the average voter has any idea who she is. To them, she's Democrat Politician #196. They might know she exists, but that's about it.

I know people worry about the DNA test but she already bit that bullet last year. It's had time and still has time to fall out of the public consciousness.

Trump is guaranteed to hammer her on it if she wins the nomination, but this isn't like BUT HER EMAILS THO. That was a persistent ongoing FBI investigation that was actively ongoing and featuring new developments during Hillary's nomination. It was current events.

There's nothing new to develop regarding the DNA test. It's done, it's over, the headlines have all been written, no one cares anymore. Which means when Trump starts in about "POCAHONTAS" this and "POCAHONTAS" that, it'll confuse voters more than it will enrage and motivate them.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 25th 2019 at 9:32:47 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#278628: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:32:49 AM

[up][up] True. But I wouldn't put her on top of the name recognition scale either. In fact I suspect that currently the polls pretty much reflect the level of name recognition.

Edited by Swanpride on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:33:02 AM

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#278629: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:33:18 AM

[up][up][up][up] Biden was middle of the pack in 2008, at best. Despite having a team to help him, he completely bungled his response on the creepy hugging. Oh, and remember the time he told millenials to stop whining because things were harder in his day?

Warren knows her shit. I think she’d steamroll him.

Edited by wisewillow on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:33:34 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278630: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:36:19 AM

They might know she exists, but that's about it.

But even that is more than some of the other low-name recognition candidates had.

[up][up]Which still doesn't quite explain how Buttigieg is still polling slightly higher than Warren, according to some polls here.

National 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polls

Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:38:33 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#278631: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:38:36 AM

[up]x2 I'm pretty sure everyone's going to steamroll Biden, considering he's ran for President like 3(?) times before becoming Vice President. I honestly can't see him win; he has too much baggage, he's not what the Democrats want right now, and there are so many better candidates then him in this field. Personally, I expect Sanders to pull it off this time, though he's not my first choice to be honest.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278632: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:39:55 AM

He's certainly not what anyone in OTC wants, that's for sure.

Which somehow doesn't keep him from still being the leader in the early polls.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#278633: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:40:10 AM

Will it continue to be a representative democracy that considers the views of all its citizens? Magic 8-ball says "probably not". Heck, it's barely that now.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: I think (though it'll take until we have a new President to fully prove this) that Trump is proving the resiliency of America's democratic institutions. Compare the US to the UK, to Hungary, and to Poland, all of which are under threat from right-wing populist governments. Unlike the latter three, our grassroots are generally united, will agree to accept any plan and any President from Warren to Biden so long as that candidate is elected through a proper primary, and are preparing a range of strategies to counterpunch the corruption of our court system, up to and including court-packing if we absolutely must. (I wish that there was more willingness to take federal action against rogue state governments, but we can't have everything.)

Compare the UK, where the entire national media is controlled by two men who are spreading wall-to-wall disinformation on a scale that they only wish Murdoch could do in the US. Compare Hungary, where politics have gone so topsy-turvy that their fascist party has become one of their leading defenders of democracy because nobody else has been able to unite against the dictator.

I think we're doing pretty well.

KazuyaProta Shin Megami Tensei IV from A Industrial Farm Since: Jan, 2015 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Shin Megami Tensei IV
#278634: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:43:54 AM

[up]People really don't care much.for.What happens outside their homes.

And despite all of the good damage control, Trump still had found a way to weaken organizations that many people here wanted.

Saying "It could be worse" is the truth. But it doesn't comfort anyone.

Edited by KazuyaProta on Apr 25th 2019 at 10:45:02 AM

Watch me destroying my country
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#278635: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:43:56 AM

[up][up]

Are you kidding me. That is blatantly wrong. Whether Trump should be impeached for flagrant obstruction of justice is still a matter of debate, he’s stacked SCOTUS and the federal courts with Mitch Mc Connell’s help, SCOTUS may let him rig the census by adding a white supremacist citizenship question to skew the data, half the executive agencies are run by “acting” heads who haven’t been approved by the Senate, there are children in fucking camps, Republican legislatures are trying to limit voting rights by overruling/undermining voter referendums, and are taking power away from Democratic governors, Sinclair media is pushing hundreds of local stations to run pro Trump/GOP propaganda... what fantasy land are you in??

Edited by wisewillow on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:52:04 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#278636: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:44:49 AM

I would also wait before getting too invested in the idea of Biden winning the nomination and thinking other candidates (outside of maybe Gabbard) are dead in the water. Once the primaries actually start we'll have a better idea of the situation.

He's certainly not what anyone in OTC wants, that's for sure.

Which somehow doesn't keep him from still being the leader in the early polls.

I'm pretty sure whatever lead he has is due to a combination of three factors:

1) Association with Obama

2) Name recognition

3) Most people are not all that well-informed about policies or the specifics of each candidate, especially not at this stage. The amount of low-information and low-investment voters is pretty big. So it's not like most of them will know about Biden being grabby towards women, his numerous gaffes, etc.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:48:05 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278637: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:46:13 AM

[up]It's less being invested in him winning and more acknowledging that it's fairly probable given the data we've got. Regardless of how much we don't want him to be the winner.

Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:46:29 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#278638: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:47:24 AM

For the last time, we have almost no data and nothing has happened yet.

Edited by wisewillow on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:55:43 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278639: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:48:16 AM

[up]We have polls. That's data.

Disgusted, but not surprised
Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#278640: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:48:45 AM

@M84: Warren has the problem that a lot of people that would have voted for her are already committed to Sanders, while everyone else seems to have more or less dismissed her as not electable for one reason or another.

In many ways she is kind of an ideal compromise candidate, but things are pretty polarized at the moment, which is probably why her and other candidates on the more progressive side are failing to find traction.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#278641: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:49:07 AM

[up][up]It’s not good or useful data though. It’s very limited by the fact that nothing has happened yet.

[down] Apologies, toned it down.

Edited by wisewillow on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:55:53 AM

nombretomado (Season 1) Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
#278642: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:49:15 AM

Yelling at other posters - i.e. widely accepted as "yelling" through a confrontational tone with capslock, exclamation points, et al., is going to results in thumps if it continues.

Edited by nombretomado on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:56:39 AM

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#278643: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:49:22 AM

Warren should use "I've got a plan" as permanent tagline for her campaign. It's meme-worthy. And watching The People's Forum, the people were starting to cheer the moment she uttered the line.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278644: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:49:34 AM

[up]x4 Yeah, that's something that was acknowledged by 538 too I think. There's too much overlap between potential Sanders supporters and potential Warren supporters. And for better or worse, most of them seem to be going for Sanders.

Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:50:13 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
GoldenKaos Captain of the Dead City from Cirith Ungol Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
Captain of the Dead City
#278645: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:49:46 AM

entire national media is controlled by two men

Sort of, but wildly hyperbolic. Half is more like it. 80% is controlled by a handful of the same political affiliation

"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#278646: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:51:23 AM

Are you fucking kidding me. That is blatantly wrong. Whether Trump should be impeached for flagrant obstruction of justice is still a matter of debate, he’s stacked SCOTUS and the federal courts with Mitch Mc Connell’s help, half the executive agencies are run by “acting” heads who haven’t been approved by the Senate, there are children in fucking camps, Republican legislatures are trying to limit voting rights by overruling/undermining voter referendums, and by taking power away from Democratic governors, Sinclair media is pushing hundreds of local stations to run pro Trump/GOP propaganda... what the hell fantasy land are you in?!?

To add to this, don't forget he is also now ordering people, both inside the government and out, not to comply with federal subpoenas.

We are now in a Constitutional Crisis where people are receiving contradictory orders from different branches of government. The Legislative is demanding the turnover of documents and testimony, and the Executive is demanding a refusal to acquiesce. Trump's Executive branch is telling people to violate the law.

And unlike his previous attempts to obstruct justice, they're obeying him this time. Carl Kline's attorney put it succinctly.

"With two masters from two equal branches of government, we will follow the instructions of the one that employs him,"

So that's a thing too.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 25th 2019 at 9:54:07 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#278647: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:53:31 AM

Did we have polls about who was the most popular in 2008 and 2016 before the primaries started? Was it Hillary both times?

Edited by Draghinazzo on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:56:04 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#278648: Apr 25th 2019 at 8:57:20 AM

[up]Yes. Here's a more indepth look at the primaries history.

How Early Primary Polls Foreshadowed Surprises Like Obama’s Rise And Trump’s Win

Note that in the 2008 primaries, Obama was less well known than Clinton but didn't actually trail too far behind her in polls.

Edited by M84 on Apr 26th 2019 at 12:04:38 AM

Disgusted, but not surprised
ShinyCottonCandy Everyone's friend Malamar from Lumiose City (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Everyone's friend Malamar
#278649: Apr 25th 2019 at 9:02:19 AM

I think the most effective solution to the whole “electability or effectiveness” debacle is pretty straightforward: the democrats should have their primary election be in a different vote format, either single transferable vote ranked choice, or approval voting. I’m sure there are logistical hurdles, but honestly, even if there weren’t, I’m not getting my hopes up.

[down]If, as it appear, my post is the source of your confusion, I’ll clarify. Both of those systems allow voters to say, “if my first choice doesn’t win, I’d be okay with these others.” There are pros and cons to each that I won’t pretend to fully understand, but one thing they both have going for them is that you don’t have to give up a vote for your favorite candidate just to make sure a less-well liked candidate beats your least favorite candidate.

Edited by ShinyCottonCandy on Apr 25th 2019 at 12:08:55 PM

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wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011

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