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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
I'll grant that. But I've seen almost no "electability" arguments predicated on statistically analysis of previous election numbers. And this
is just corroborating my point: "Electability" in this context is a dog-whistle for "White Guy".
If people are afraid to run a female or minority candidate, then they should just say "I want a white guy candidate, because I'm afraid that diversity will lose the election." If those words feel too gross and shameful to say, then they should just not say them. Don't couch it in different terminology to try and make it more palatable to a general public.
I left the Republican Party because I realized that a lot of the ideas and principles I was raised on were actually code-words for x-isms. Republicans made an art form out of masking the agenda of heterosexual white male supremacy under cool-sounding buzzwords and reasonable-in-a-vacuum dog-whistles.
I don't like seeing Democrats experimenting with masking heterosexual white male supremacy under buzzwords.
If we win 2020 by going, "You're right. You're right. I'm sorry I elected a black President; I swear, it will NEVER happen again." Then what have we really won?
Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:43:07 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.By the same token, if we nominate a female/minority candidate and they lose to Trump, what have we gained? I suppose we've proven that a majority of Americans are sexist/racist?
Don't take this the wrong way: Elizabeth Warren is my current favorite candidate. She's very popular, but that popularity doesn't seem to be translated into polling numbers right now. I'm fairly certain that'll change going forward, and it's way too early to be calling the race, but it has me concerned, in a "WTF is wrong with Democrats" sort of way.
Valid points. I'm just not confident that we can get everything we want here. The fact that Trump's popularity is still high enough to put this race into serious question is deeply troubling.
Edited by Fighteer on Apr 25th 2019 at 10:49:19 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"What we've gained is that the Democratic Party is not as corrupt and broken as the Republicans.
I understand the logic. Trump's a serious threat and we need to beat him. But say we sell our souls, abandon ship on minority rights, embrace the idea that only heterosexual white men are worthy of the Presidency, and win in 2020.
There'll be another election in 2024. And there'll be another awful Republican if not Trump himself waiting for us there.
And then another one in 2028. And another in 2032.
Selling out the soul of our party for a short-term victory only accomplishes the goal of letting white supremacist Republicans drag the entire nation in the direction of white supremacy.
I'm not opposed to voting for a white guy if that's who wins our primary. But if we take it as an absolute? If we embrace the ideology that only white men are fit to serve? If we declare that we should never run anyone but a white man when the Republican opponent is as toxic as Trump? Then we'll never run a white man again, because there will always be a Trump. Or a McConnell. Or a Roy Moore.
And then we become the other party of white supremacy.
I consider myself a pretty moderate Democrat. Comes from my Republican roots, I suppose. But this is one place where I think it's very important that we do not compromise. Because no matter who wins the election, a country whose politicians are 50% white supremacist is still better off than one whose politicians are 100% so.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.Actually, early polls are fairly reliable predictors
.
And I don't think that "electability" is always a dog whistle for bigotry. Sometimes it is simply a consequence. And that is a problem, because then you cannot ignore it.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanI can't help but wonder if the "early polls are bullshit" rhetoric is in part motivated by people really not wanting to believe that Biden is likely going to win the primaries.
Can't say I blame them...I really don't like the idea of voting for Biden in 2020. I'll do it of course, but I won't be too happy about it.
Disgusted, but not surprised![]()
That really just makes it worse really. That the post-Obama reaction to his election was so powerful that it will likely keep minorities from the presidency for the foreseeable future.
It won’t help either that the media will likely perpetuate this, even if it is only unintentionally.
Edited by Mio on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:01:12 AM
Basically what it boils down to is that I am worried about 2020, just like everyone else.
But I'm also worried about 2024, when "electability" might mean thinking abortions should be a crime.
And 2028, when "electability" might mean wanting the Muslim faith to be criminalized.
And 2032, when "electability" might mean wanting to strip away welfare programs.
If we let fear of whatever awful person the Republicans dig up next erode the foundations of our platform, then even when they lose elections, the Republicans still win the culture war. We cannot build a better future on pyrrhic victories.
When we stop speaking for the right course for our nation, who is left to speak for it?
Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 25th 2019 at 9:03:56 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.@M84: I think they are underestimating how much the media does not favor Bernie Sanders.
I understand that the media would probably prefer any other candidate then these two ( their promotion of Beto and then Buttigieg is a prime) but given a choice between the two clear front runners at this point I think they will choose Biden over Sanders.
Of course this assumes that no dark horse candidate breaks through, but at this point it doesn’t seem likely.
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Well that was pretty much the Democratic Party strategy during Bill Clinton’s administration and that mentality still remains in many corner’s of the party.
If the Democrats do lose the election it’s going to be way worse split then 2016, and the party may never recover.
Edited by Mio on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:15:24 AM
Another issue with trying to equate this with Sanders in 2015 is that Sanders was a relatively unknown candidate before beginning his campaign. That 538 article points out that low early polls aren't quite as bad for low-name recognition candidates.
Elizabeth Warren otoh isn't really a low-name recognition candidate. So for her to be polling on average from 10~20% at this stage...it's not an encouraging sign.
The point is that during the campaign before we get to the two finalists, the media will be biased against Biden.
Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:14:20 PM
Disgusted, but not surprisedI am mostly worried about the fact that I am of the opinion that the ONLY way to overcome the hurdles the Republicans have build up in the election system to favour them is to activate NEW voters. Not to get the democratic voters to the poll (especially since they will most likely go anyway, no matter who is fielded, just to get rid of Trump), not to try to "steal" Republican voters (because every Republican who would still vote for Trump is not only not worth stealing but would most likely not be convinced by anything to change his or her mind), but to get all those people who usually don't vote to stand up and make themselves heard.
And I don't believe for a SECOND that Biden is the right candidate to do that. He stands for the establishment, for more of the old. Fielding him is the best way to lose the election. And I am also worried that if it boils down to Biden or "someone else" it might be automatically "someone else" for exactly that reason, even if said someone is through and through worse than him.
Edited by Swanpride on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:16:27 AM
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Again, bad early polls don't mean as much for low-name recognition candidates. Do you really think that Warren is such a candidate?
By the logic you're using, Buttigieg would have a better chance of being the dark horse winner. Nobody really knew who he was for the most part before he announced his run. Then he starts polling in double digits just weeks afterwards after one town hall.
The fact that a good chunk of his polling advantage is due to support from older voters is not an encouraging sign, no.
Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2019 at 11:18:02 PM
Disgusted, but not surprisedWe haven't even gotten a single primary debate. Did everyone obsess over Sanders right from the start? Did anyone think Trump would win before the primaries began? No. The primaries change everything, much of the time. And so far, Warren has proven that when you put her up against the others and let her speak, people like her more.
Maybe Biden will still win, but we haven't even seen any of the candidates debate one another. Most people aren't even aware who Castro or Gabbard are. Give this time. I have a strong feeling that Warren will grab a lot of attention during the primaries.
Something that should be noted about Obama is that he is extremely highly charismatic. I was pretty much full bore republican back then and I considered voting for him. There are very few politicians who are as charismatic as Obama. There is no one anywhere who I would consider to even be playing in the same league as Obama in terms of Charisma.
Watch the Warren livestream I posted
a few pages back.
Edited by wisewillow on Apr 25th 2019 at 8:26:34 AM
Trump was considered a 100% unviable joke candidate until about....
....
You know what, I'll let you know when people stop assuming he could never win an election.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Apr 25th 2019 at 9:27:26 AM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.538 does point out that Trump was an unusual case.
I am not sure about Warren's level of name recognition. Yes, she got some coverage two years ago when she called out Trump, but it was pretty quiet around her after that until she announced her bid, and since she did, the media has pretty much focussed on everyone but her.
I mean, she is not Pelosi, whose name has been constantly in the media for years, she is not AOC, who is currently getting all the attention due to the Republicans being overly obsessive with her, nor is she Bernie Sanders, who has commented on pretty much everything in the last two years and got coverage every single time. We know who she is because we kept discussing her, but the majority of the voters, I think they kind of remember that a politician with the name exist, but I doubt that they know much more.
@wisewillow; I'd temper your excitement a bit there. While Warren is a great debater (and has a lot of options to attack Biden's record), Biden is no slouch himself. If he can turn around and make it about rhetoric, quips and soundbites (as he is known to do), Warren (though this applies to everyone else to) he might come out winning in that exchange.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

I think that ship sailed when you abolished slavery.
I can see how another Trump term would weaken the democratic institutions and underpinnings of the country, but whether that would lead down the road to further degradation or to eventual reforms is not something we can foresee. It would certainly be very, very bad.
"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."