TVTropes Now available in the app store!
Open

Follow TV Tropes

Following

The General US Politics Thread

Go To

Nov 2023 Mod notice:


There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.

If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.

Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.

If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules when posting here.


In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.

Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#275501: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:19:12 PM

I'm confused. Barr says that Trump did not collude with the Russians, but the report still somehow doesn't exonerate him?
I'm confused too, though it probably depends on what exactly is he "not exonerated" from. Like, maybe it says that there's still enough circumstantial evidence to suspect Trump of being personally involved in illegal acts unrelated to collusion with the Russians (e.g. paying hush money to Stormy Daniels et al. during the 2016 campaign).

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#275502: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:24:02 PM

There was basically two investigations. One was collusion, the other was obstruction of Justice for trying to shut down the collusion investigation. The cleared him of the first, they couldn't decide one way or the other for the latter.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#275503: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:24:09 PM

[up][up][up] I think it's likely that Trump's gains will be 1-2 points, and might have some staying power in the sense that Trump skeptical Republicans and Republican leaning voters might be brought back into the fold.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Mar 24th 2019 at 8:30:10 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#275504: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:28:25 PM

I think it's likely that Trump's gains will be 1-2 points, and might have some staying power in the sense that Trump skeptical Republicans and Republican leaning voters might be brought back into the fold.

Sounds plausible.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#275505: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:30:52 PM

[up] It's also a big problem for Democrats in 2020 if Trump has approval ratings in the mid 40s, with those numbers it would be Trump's election to lose barring a recession; if (and this is a big if) he can refrain from saying and doing too much outrageously stupid shit on the campaign trail, I expect him to be reelected, and maybe win the popular vote. The fact that it's Trump and his staffers can't keep him off twitter means that's actually not as easy a bar to clear as it should be.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Mar 24th 2019 at 8:32:38 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#275506: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:33:21 PM

It's also a big problem for 2020 if Trump has approval ratings in the mid 40s, with those numbers it would be Trump's election to lose barring a recession; if (and this is a big if) he can refrain from saying and doing too much outrageously stupid shit on the campaign trail, I expect him to be reelected, and maybe win the popular vote. The fact that it's Trump and his staffers can't keep him off twitter means that's actually not as easy a bar to clear as it should be.

Yeah, if Trump weren't Trump he would probably have a great chance.

But thankfully for us, he is and thus has a very real chance of losing.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#275507: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:35:01 PM

OTOH, the bar for "outrageously stupid shit" is higher than it was in 2016. Trump saying something idiotic on twitter is barely newsworthy anymore, and the strongman rhetoric in campaign rallies is also old news.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Mar 24th 2019 at 8:35:20 AM

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#275508: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:35:37 PM

I mean, that's basically just saying 'a normal politician in Trump's position would have an advantage', which isn't a particularly useful statement, because a normal politician wouldn't have gotten themselves into this position in the first place.

'It would be to Trump's advantage to suddenly became a completely different person' isn't saying much of anything, y'know?

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#275509: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:38:32 PM

I mean, that's basically just saying 'a normal politician in Trump's position would have an advantage', which isn't a particularly useful statement, because a normal politician wouldn't have gotten themselves into this position in the first place.

'It would be to Trump's advantage to suddenly became a completely different person' isn't saying much of anything, y'know?

Exactly this.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#275510: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:48:19 PM

IMO part of the problem is that, as much as people said "we can't normalize this", a lot of the low level stuff like the 3:00 AM tweets aren't really newsworthy anymore. I also anticipate 2020 campaign Trump having fewer shocking displays of ignorance, because even a slacker/ignoramus like him will gaining at least a basic understanding of his job after 4 years of immersion in the work environment.


It's definitely going to be competitive, but I think 2020 Trump is going to be a much tougher opponent than 2016 Trump, which was genuinely improbable; maybe a 1:3 chance.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Mar 24th 2019 at 8:50:24 AM

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#275511: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:52:26 PM

The piece you're missing there is that Trump likes getting attention, even if it's in a way that's not in his long term interest. He's gonna be actively trying to find outrageous things to say to get the resulting media attention. And even if he doesn't succeed, well, trying to compete his opponent in stuff like policy knowledge is not a fight he'd win against just about any of plausible democratic nominees.

singularityshot Since: Dec, 2012
#275512: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:53:09 PM

So, on the basis that the AG's report does honestly reflect the findings of the Special Prosecutor (and I have my doubts about that) anyone want to go double or quits?

See Republicans, in the middle of their gloating, seem to want further investigations into how this whole thing started. The three likely targets are Carter Page and the FISA warrant; the Steele dossier and her emails. Out of those three the first two are highly likely to backfire as Carter Page is a known Russian asset and the Steele dossier was originally Republican opposition research, whereas the third could go either way as if it doesn't end up with her locked up it could be Trump's wall redux.

Lennik (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#275513: Mar 24th 2019 at 5:57:15 PM

I'm pretty sure at this point another investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails would be a political loser. There have been how many investigations into that already? Hillary's not running again and holds no office. It appeals to no one outside of Trump's base.

And I would not be the least bit surprised if Trump tried it soon, if for no other reason than a vindictive desire for revenge.

Edited by Lennik on Mar 24th 2019 at 9:00:42 AM

That's right, boys. Mondo cool.
Soban Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
#275514: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:01:04 PM

>Carter Page is a known Russian asset

The Carter page who cooperated against Russian spies or is there another Carter Page around?

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#275515: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:08:38 PM

Huh, so apparently this cycle's meme candidate (a basic income single issue candidate), Andrew Yang, has qualified for the primary debates. While I'd argue a negative income tax would be a more prudent way of implementing UBI (especially in terms of the political dimensions of it given one Milton Friedman was a proponent of a NIT, hence why some Libertarians support UBI), it's a policy I'm generally interested in.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Mar 24th 2019 at 9:23:47 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#275516: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:13:31 PM

UBI and NIT are the topic in the economics thread right now, fittingly.

Though my opinion is that implementing it as a negative tax is far too insecure.

MorningStar1337 The Encounter that ended the Dogma from 🤔 Since: Nov, 2012
The Encounter that ended the Dogma
#275517: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:14:42 PM

Isn't he the candidate that decided to attempt to appeal to an audience on Image Boards?

AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#275518: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:18:48 PM

>Andrew Yang

Oh hey, I remember him! He's the one guy from a while back! I think I posted an article on him.

...He's kinda 'eh' as a candidate though. Rather single issue on UBI, which is something I don't know how I feel about. Into the vague mess of the middle of my rankings he goes.

[up] The NYT article mentions them as "the support he'd rather not have" so I imagine it was not intentional on his part.

Edited by AzurePaladin on Mar 24th 2019 at 9:19:46 AM

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#275519: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:19:12 PM

[up][up][up] An NIT is preferable for political reasons; it's going to require a tax overhaul however UBI is implemented, and one interesting scheme to do that would be via converting to a flat tax system with exemptions that amount to a negative income tax on people below a certain threshold (and which is actually a progressive taxation scheme in disguise); a "flat tax" sounds like a conservative policy as does the association of a NIT with Friedman. Learning to dogwhistle their policy agenda is a strategy that might be prudent for the American left. So instead of UBI, you have "flat tax with exemptions", instead of reparations you have some sort of subsidy that will disproportionately benefit black Americans.


[up][up] I don't know that he's attempting to do that, but he is the "image board" candidate of 2020 in the same way Trump, Sanders to some extent, and Ron Paul were the respective meme candidates of their elections.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Mar 24th 2019 at 9:22:56 AM

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#275520: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:37:24 PM

>Carter Page is a known Russian asset

The Carter page who cooperated against Russian spies or is there another Carter Page around?

The Carter Page whose name appeared multiple times in the Steele Dossier and testified before the House Intelligence Committee.

Edited by sgamer82 on Mar 24th 2019 at 7:37:50 AM

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#275521: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:40:25 PM

Page was the subject of a FISA investigation due to his ties with Russian intelligence agencies in 2014. He’s long been known to be a Kremlin sympathizer at best, and a willing ally at worst.

They should have sent a poet.
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#275522: Mar 24th 2019 at 6:46:43 PM

[up][up][up] "But it sounds like something the Republicans might want!" is going to shoot yourself in the foot.

Also, you then end up tying a complete upheaval of the economic foundations of society to... tax brackets.

That sounds hard to undo.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#275523: Mar 24th 2019 at 7:03:59 PM

[up] In a primary yes. In a general election no, in fact centrism (or at least centrist sounding policies and rhetoric), aka appealing to the median voter is the mathematically optimal electoral strategy; policy platforms are polarized by necessity to compromise with partisans, activists, and ideologues who value bold sounding policy over substantive results.


Meanwhile when it comes to policymaking you have a broader coalition that potentially includes Libertarians and libertarian leaning Republicans, and has considerable backing from major corporate interests, particularly in the tech industry.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Mar 24th 2019 at 10:09:55 AM

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#275524: Mar 24th 2019 at 7:09:29 PM

That sounds like overestimating the number of people who're going to swap entirely based on policy and underestimating how many you're going to lose for lying in bed with the enemy. The mere fact it's the other party saying it negates any advantage with the people on your own side you're driving off.

And again... if it's just changing the tax code? That's too easily undone.

AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#275525: Mar 24th 2019 at 7:10:40 PM

[up][up] Oh, God bless...

I think you'll find that:

you have a broader coalition that potentially includes libertarians and libertarian leaning Republicans, and has backing from major corporate interests, particularly in the tech industry.

is not going to appeal to a lot of more Left-Wing folks. And if you're trying to build a coalition on the Left, you're going to have to include the folks that do not want those having influence.

Ignoring that block means that you don't actually have a Left-Wing coalition, merely a Libertarian-Center one.

Edited by AzurePaladin on Mar 24th 2019 at 10:10:51 AM

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer

Total posts: 417,856
Top