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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#272976: Feb 26th 2019 at 10:32:54 PM

Biden will get massacred if he runs against Trump. The only part of the Democratic base he appeals to is old party loyalists, and the "center" will see two old white guys with roaming hands and a tendency to put their feet in their mouths

And I'm not sure it's a safe bet that enough Democratic voters will realize any flaws in their candidate effectively cease to matter if the alternative is Trump term 2.

Edited by sgamer82 on Feb 26th 2019 at 11:33:45 AM

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#272977: Feb 26th 2019 at 10:34:57 PM

Or for that matter, voters who aren't dyed-in-the-wool Democrats but also not dyed-in-the-wool Trumpkins.

However, IMO the biggest hazard with Biden is that he's trying to win support mainly from Congressional Democrats. That's a dangerous move:

  • When Hillary Clinton did lock up support from prominent lawmakers and politicians early on, it led to complaints about the primary being "rigged". Expect to hear that line a lot if Biden wins the primary.
  • Friends tend to downplay/underestimate one's scandals, especially when we are talking about politicians. So there is a chance that many of Biden's supporters are underestimating the hazard of a #MeToo controversy erupting.
  • If Biden's candidacy falters due to a harassment scandal, there will be questions about whether Democrats knew about it and about whether they did anything about the problem.

Edited by SeptimusHeap on Feb 26th 2019 at 7:44:04 PM

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#272978: Feb 26th 2019 at 11:27:37 PM

I'm pretty sure Biden will get all Democratic votes simply because he's against Trump and the Obama recognition. He'll also get quite a few of the swing and undecided.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Hylarn (Don’t ask)
#272979: Feb 27th 2019 at 12:00:23 AM

I think people are really underestimating how difficult it is to run against an incumbent? Your average swing voter is going to be thinking something like "The current office holder has not literally set me on fire, but I'm not about sure this other guy". You need a strong, charismatic candidate

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#272980: Feb 27th 2019 at 12:15:20 AM

See, the impression I have from the midterms is that once you correct for the base rate fallacy incumbency is pretty weak nowadays.

This is the result of the House vote on the resolution. Of the 13 Republicans who voted in favour some - Hurd (TX) and Stefanik (NY) - are known moderates and Amash (MI) is a libertarian-leaning Tea Partier who sometimes puts his ideology above party, but some of the others - Sensenbrenner (WI) and Massie (KY) - surprise me.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#272981: Feb 27th 2019 at 2:38:37 AM

Also, while I am here and some people want to table the primary talk:

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#272982: Feb 27th 2019 at 2:45:05 AM

Turtle really dropped the ball on this one (as he does with all of his plans) as he's effectively given an idea no one was giving any attention to a lot of unwelcome credibility.

Streisand Effect writ large.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Feb 27th 2019 at 2:45:27 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
TheAirman Brightness from The vicinity of an area adjacent to a location Since: Feb, 2011 Relationship Status: Historians will say we were good friends.
Brightness
#272983: Feb 27th 2019 at 2:58:41 AM

And Cohen is publicly singing like a goddamned mockingbird

Friends, Tropers, decent human beings, among other things we have documented charity fraud; direct communication between Trump and Stone (and Stone and Assange) on the DNC hack days before it happened; President Trump's signature on a check reimbursing hush money (signed August 1, 2017); (understood) direction from Trump to lie - and Trump's personal lawyers editing and revising Cohen's statements to Congress - on Moscow Tower; and my personal favorite:

When I say conman, I’m talking about a man who declares himself brilliant but directed me to threaten his high school, his colleges, and the College Board to never release his grades or SAT scores.

As I mentioned, I’m giving the Committee today copies of a letter I sent at Mr. Trump’s direction threatening these schools with civil and criminal actions if Mr. Trump’s grades or SAT scores were ever disclosed without his permission. These are Exhibit 6.

The irony wasn’t lost on me at the time that Mr. Trump in 2011 had strongly criticized President Obama for not releasing his grades. As you can see in Exhibit 7, Mr. Trump declared “Let him show his records” after calling President Obama “a terrible student.”

Edited by TheAirman on Feb 27th 2019 at 5:02:03 AM

PSN ID: FateSeraph | Switch friendcode: SW-0145-8835-0610 Congratulations! She/They
Euodiachloris Since: Oct, 2010
#272984: Feb 27th 2019 at 3:04:26 AM

Lesson of the day: don't piss off your lawyer to the point they sing their parts in your doing orchestrally.

TheAirman Brightness from The vicinity of an area adjacent to a location Since: Feb, 2011 Relationship Status: Historians will say we were good friends.
Brightness
#272985: Feb 27th 2019 at 3:10:51 AM

Also this delicious bit of venom:

During the campaign, Mr. Trump said he did not consider Vietnam Veteran, and Prisoner of War, Senator John Mc Cain to be “a hero” because he likes people who weren’t captured. At the same time, Mr. Trump tasked me to handle the negative press surrounding his medical deferment from the Vietnam draft.

Mr. Trump claimed it was because of a bone spur, but when I asked for medical records, he gave me none and said there was no surgery. He told me not to answer the specific questions by reporters but rather offer simply the fact that he received a medical deferment.

He finished the conversation with the following comment. “You think I’m stupid, I wasn’t going to Vietnam.”

I find it ironic, President Trump, that you are in Vietnam right now.

PSN ID: FateSeraph | Switch friendcode: SW-0145-8835-0610 Congratulations! She/They
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#272986: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:06:57 AM

Saw a little flash on CNN about the Democrats claiming that they can actually question Cohen about Russia? Anyone have an update on that?

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#272987: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:07:56 AM

Just got a notification that Cohen's testimony has begun.

Link should work for live watching

https://www.reuters.tv/l/PgUR

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#272988: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:21:15 AM

What is this clown talking about?

i'm tired, my friend
nombretomado (Season 1) Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
#272989: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:22:42 AM

Jim Jordan is claiming the hearing was orchestrated by Lanny Davis, a Clinton operative, and Tom Steyer, and that Dems are legitimizing dishonesty by letting Cohen speak again.

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#272990: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:24:06 AM

Yeah, i got it after a while; just a bunch of bullshit conspiracy theories. Unsurprisingly.

i'm tired, my friend
GoldenKaos Captain of the Dead City from Cirith Ungol Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
Captain of the Dead City
#272991: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:25:50 AM

What was that motion meant to be?

"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#272992: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:26:54 AM

Probably just to spew more garbage.

i'm tired, my friend
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#272993: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:30:40 AM

My roommate also believes that men and women already have equal rights.

From the sounds of it, your roommate's drunk on the Privilege Kool-Aid. People who encounter no bigotry in their own day to day life because of the privilege they were born into tend to assume that bigotry is a historical footnote; something that once existed in the United States, but was ended by the civil rights movement and no longer exists today.

It's a comfortable lie that absolves them of having to be invested in today's struggles. Lazy apathy is a hell of a drug.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Feb 27th 2019 at 8:30:53 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272994: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:34:01 AM

Biden, if he were to run, would be a very far front runner, with only Sanders being anywhere close to him, according to the majority of Polls taken since October 2018.

I'll point out that polls at this juncture are rather worthless, that reflects his name recognition and little else.

Once the primary actually starts and candidates positions and histories start actually being critically examined by people that will almost certainly shift.

My roommate also believes that men and women already have equal rights.

Sounds like they don't understand the difference between dejure and defacto.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 27th 2019 at 10:35:35 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
GoldenKaos Captain of the Dead City from Cirith Ungol Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
Captain of the Dead City
#272995: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:35:06 AM

Cohen's just reading out his statement right now. Nothing new I don't think, yet.

[up]Yeah, get them to play Crusader Kings 2 tongue

Edited by GoldenKaos on Feb 27th 2019 at 3:35:31 PM

"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272996: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:36:27 AM

Yeah, get them to play Crusader Kings 2 tongue

Brilliant plan, unless it makes them a worse person [lol]

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
NoName999 Since: May, 2011
#272997: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:44:35 AM

> First Lady

> Kind

LOL you're not suppose lie, Cohen

GoldenKaos Captain of the Dead City from Cirith Ungol Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
Captain of the Dead City
#272998: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:47:43 AM

[up][up]The fandom isn't the game. And I genuinely don't know how serious most of them are, after lurking their groups/forums while trying (and failing) to get into the game properly.

"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#272999: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:50:55 AM

I mean, it is a game that vastly encourages betrayal, carefully managed incest, and treating family members as property. tongue

HailMuffins Since: May, 2016 Relationship Status: Shipping fictional characters
#273000: Feb 27th 2019 at 7:52:05 AM

If you think Crusader Kings 2 fans are bad, try to play Dwarf Fortress one of these days.


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