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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Soban Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
#272126: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:20:48 PM

I don't hate Biden. However, his habit of occasional mistatements is a weakness that Trump will ruthlessly exploit.

[up] I'm probably the most rightward leaning person in the thread and I'm not even considering voting for Trump.

Edited by Soban on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:22:03 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#272127: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:24:16 PM

If you want to run a candidate that will be seen as more moderate for whatever reason, I would rather have someone like Steve Bullock than Biden.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Feb 19th 2019 at 9:24:46 AM

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#272128: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:25:31 PM

Base turnout is important. See: Joe Donnelly trying to hug “moderates” and getting his ass kicked cause Dem turnout was limp.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#272129: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:25:43 PM

It's not just misstatements. He also has a history of being super skeevy around women, and that shit don't fly in a #MeToo era.

The best thing I can say about Joe Biden is that he is probably not a Russian stooge.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272130: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:26:34 PM

[up][up][up] Yes, but Biden has a massive head start by virtue of his name recognition, which is why the other moderates in the field are polling single digits.

[up][up] Base turnout has more to do with who you're running against than what you stand for. In this case, Donald Trump is the opposition so I think base turnout is pretty much covered as long as the Democrat isn't someone as weirdly unpopular as Clinton.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:32:31 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#272131: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:27:14 PM

[up][up]That's the main reason I'm concerned about Biden. I would not be at all surprised if some more troubling allegations surfaced during the primaries, and if he became the nominee then the democrats would be stuck in an extremely bad position that would severely dampen morale. That's the last thing they need right now.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Feb 19th 2019 at 9:27:25 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#272132: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:27:57 PM

[up][up][up]Not a Russian stooge and he's experienced. And plenty of other candidates have that while not having his massive baggage.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Feb 19th 2019 at 9:28:13 AM

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272133: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:35:55 PM

The base (both yours and the opposition) is irrelevant in the general election since they'll vote for you (or your opponent) no matter what; they're* useful idiots in other words who are only relevant if party machine politics start breaking down and allowing them to actually influence outcomes in primaries. What's relevant are voters who are A. persuadable, and B. likely to vote, and the cross section of those two categories are moderates, aka the median voter. You can win via an alternative strategy of energizing disengaged voters at the edges of the Overton window, but that's a far less politically safe strategy than centrism, and tends to be looked down upon for good reasons since it brings out extremists.

Firstly, I have to address the grotesque arrogance of saying that the people who actually stand for something are useful idiots. There are reasons to be loyal to parties and acting as if that's somehow a sign of personal weakness or mental incompetence is just inane, ignorant undecided voters (oops tautology) are not more virtuous or praiseworthy.

Secondly, this is empirically false, partisans not swing voters are the people who determine elections. Ignoring the base is inane and foolish, your assumption that Biden is a particularly strong candidate is entirely unfounded.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:37:06 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272134: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:40:36 PM

[up] I'm including myself in that category since I'm not prepared to vote Trump, will almost certainly vote in the 2020 general election, and am thus an irrelevant voter as far as the campaigns are concerned, doubly so since I'm in a safe state. It's a self-depreciating bit of Black Comedy.




That study btw concerns whether political outreach changes voters minds; not whether swing voters matter; one perfectly valid interpretation of these results is that they've generally made up their mind when the nominees are chosen and they've learned what they care to about them, but who that person is and what their policies are* makes a substantial difference, and as that article I posted earlier shows, the average American and the median voter are a lot more moderate than we tend to think.

* Or what a voter thinks their policies are.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:58:25 AM

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#272135: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:44:13 PM

Obama didn’t win by getting tons of republicans to flip. He won by getting massive voter turnout of young, minority, and liberal voters.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272136: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:45:04 PM

[up] And a bunch of rust belt union workers who swung the election for Trump in 2016. But I'd argue the real reason he won was the fact that we were facing the second worst economic downturn in history, which more or less gave it to the opposition by default. The Forever War going on in the Middle East was just a cherry on top.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:48:06 AM

Soban Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
#272137: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:46:47 PM

9.2% of Obama voters voted for Trump in 2016. 13% of Trump voters had voted for Obama in 2012. This is more than the margin of victory.

Edited by Soban on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:47:41 AM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272138: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:47:24 PM

[up] 9.2% in the key swing states, but either way I'd say a much bigger reason for Obama's win was the recession and war in Iraq.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:48:34 AM

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#272139: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:48:32 PM

Still a pretty negligible difference in the grand scheme, isn't it? It's not like Obama couldn't have won without them.

i'm tired, my friend
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272140: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:49:13 PM

[up] If the war on terror had (somehow) not become such a massive clusterfuck and the great recession were delayed by about a year and half, he probably wouldn't have. He'd still have gotten historic turnouts of young voters and minorities, but not enough to carry the day.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:50:46 AM

Soban Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
#272141: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:50:21 PM

Without that 9.2%? Unlikely, the margin of victory was 7%.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#272142: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:51:14 PM

https://whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/2019/02/19/day-761/

    Day 761: Grenades 
1/ Trump asked acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker if a Trump-appointed attorney could lead the Southern District of New York's investigation into Michael Cohen's hush money payments during the 2016 election. Whitaker couldn't put Geoffrey Berman, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York and a Trump ally, in charge, because Berman had already recused himself from the investigation, which led to Trump complaining about Whitaker's inability to pull the strings necessary at the Justice Department to make his legal problems go away. There is no evidence that Whitaker took any direct steps to intervene in the Manhattan investigation, but Whitaker privately told associates that part of his role at the Justice Department was to "jump on a grenade" for Trump. Earlier this month Whitaker testified to the House Judiciary Committee that Trump had never pressured him to intervene in an investigation, which is now under scrutiny by House Democrats for possible perjury. [Editor's note: This is a must read] (New York Times)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/us/politics/trump-investigations.html

Trump denied the report that he asked Whitaker to put an ally in charge of the investigation into pre-election hush payments to women who claimed to have had affairs with him. Trump then praised Whitaker, who was replaced by William Barr last week, saying "I think he’s done a great job" and "should be given a lot of thanks by the nation." (Politico / The Hill)

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/19/trump-denies-whitaker-investigation-1175607

Rep. Jerrold Nadler, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, asked Whitaker to clarify his recent testimony, saying Whitaker "refused to offer clear responses regarding your communications with the White House." (Politico)

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/13/nadler-whitaker-testimony-trump-1169350

Michael Cohen plans to describe his "personal, front-line experiences of memories, and incidents, and conduct, and comments that Donald Trump said over that 10-year time period behind closed doors," which is lawyer described as "chilling." Cohen has pledged to appear before closed sessions of the House and Senate intelligence committees and in a public session of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee before he reports for a federal prison sentence on March 6. (ABC News)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/michael-cohen-plans-give-america-peek-trump-tower/story?id=61106078

Trump has publicly criticized the Russia investigation nearly 1,200 times. (New York Times)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/19/us/politics/trump-attacks-obstruction-investigation.html

2/ Former acting FBI Director Andrew Mc Cabe briefed congressional leaders in 2017 about the counterintelligence investigation he opened into Trump and that "no one objected," including Mitch Mc Connell and Paul Ryan. Mc Cabe ordered the obstruction of justice and counterintelligence investigations after Trump fired FBI Director James Comey in May of 2017, which made Mc Cabe acting director of the bureau at the time. The FBI wanted to know whether Trump had been working on behalf of Russia against American interests. "The purpose of the briefing was to let our congressional leadership know exactly what we'd been doing," Mc Cabe said, and that nobody raised concerns, "not on legal grounds, not on constitutional grounds, and not based on the facts." Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein also attended the meeting, which is when the appointment of a special counsel to oversee the Russia investigation was first announced. Eight days after Comey was fired, Rosenstein appointed special counsel Robert Mueller. (NBC News / CNBC / Politico / Daily Beast / The Atlantic / CBS News)

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/19/mccabe-gang-of-eight-counterintelligence-investigation-trump-1173821

WATCH: The full Andrew Mc Cabe interview. (CBS News)

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/andrew-mccabe-60-minutes-interview-full-video-watch-acting-fbi-director-trump-investigation-james-comey-russia-investigation-2019-02-17/

Mc Cabe: Trump is unwilling to accept intelligence on North Korea given to him by U.S. officials, telling them, "I don't care, I believe Putin." Trump said he didn't believe that North Korea has missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland because Putin told him the missiles didn't exist. (The Hill / 60 Minutes)

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/430437-mccabe-trump-said-i-dont-care-i-believe-putin-when-confronted-with-us

3/ Trump accused Mc Cabe and Rosenstein of "illegal and treasonous" actions. In a tweet, Trump said Mc Cabe and Rosenstein "look like they were planning a very illegal act, and got caught" in response to Mc Cabe's interview on 60 Minutes. Mc Cabe and Rosenstein had discussed "counting votes" among Cabinet members to see who would consider invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from power. "There is a lot of explaining to do to the millions of people who had just elected a president who they really like and who has done a great job for them with the Military, Vets, Economy and so much more," Trump continued. "This was the illegal and treasonous 'insurance policy' in full action!" (Daily Beast / Washington Post)

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-accuses-mccabe-and-rosenstein-of-plotting-treason-against-him

Trump circulated a call by Rush Limbaugh to imprison the people investigating him and his administration, including Robert Mueller. Trump quoted Limbaugh in a tweet, writing, "These guys, the investigators, ought to be in jail. What they have done, working with the Obama intelligence agencies, is simply unprecedented." He continued: "This is one of the greatest political hoaxes ever perpetrated on the people of this Country, and Mueller is a coverup." Later, Trump added his own condemnation of Mueller and his team, calling the investigation "totally conflicted, illegal and rigged!" (Daily Beast)

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-circulates-limbaugh-quote-calling-for-mueller-investigators-to-be-in-jail

House Intelligence Chair Adam Schiff said there is "evidence in plain sight" of collusion between the 2016 Trump campaign and Russia. Schiff rejected the conclusions of Senate Intelligence Chair Richard Burr, who said no such evidence exists. "You can see evidence in plain sight on the issue of collusion, pretty compelling evidence," Schiff said. "There is a difference between seeing evidence of collusion and being able to prove a criminal conspiracy beyond a reasonable doubt." (Politico)

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/17/trump-russia-collusion-adam-schiff-1173434

4/ Rosenstein will resign as deputy attorney general and leave the Justice Department in March. Incoming Attorney General William Barr is expected to name Rosenstein's successor as early as this week. Justice Department officials say Rosenstein's departure has nothing to do with Mc Cabe's recent interview on 60 Minutes. It is unclear what this means for Mueller's investigation, which will likely be handed off to Barr. (CBS News / CNN / Reuters / Washington Post)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-rosenstein-idUSKCN1Q805B

Barr's son-in-law, Tyler Mc Gaughey, will be leaving his job at the Justice Department and will join the White House counsel's office, where he'll "advise the president, the executive office, and White House staff on legal issues concerning the president and the presidency." (Vanity Fair / CNN)

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/13/politics/barr-family-justice-department-moves/index.html

5/ Michael Flynn and several other Trump administration appointees ignored repeated legal and ethical warnings as they promoted the sale of nuclear power plants to Saudi Arabia. The 24-page report from the House Oversight and Reform Committee outlined actions by the Trump administration to have American companies build dozens of nuclear power plants across Saudi Arabia, potentially at the risk of spreading nuclear weapons technology. The report said the unnamed whistleblowers inside the White House came forward because they were worried by the continued effort to sell the power plants. House Democrats said the White House was still considering the proposal as recently as last week. The Oversight Committee said it would continue to investigate the matter and make new requests for documents from the White House and cabinet agencies "to determine whether the actions being pursued by the Trump administration are in the national security interests of the United States, or rather, serve those who stand to gain financially." (New York Times / Wall Street Journal / Washington Post / Reuters / NBC News)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-mideast-oversight-idUSKCN1Q824N

6/ California, New York, and 14 other states joined a lawsuit to challenge Trump's plan to use a national emergency declaration to funnel billions of dollars into his border wall. The suit was filed in Federal District Court in San Francisco, and claims that Trump does not have the authority to redirect funds from other projects to pay for his border wall over the objections of Congress, which controls government spending. Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawai'i, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Virginia also joined the lawsuit. Several nonprofit organizations have also announced plans to sue. (New York Times / NBC News / Washington Post)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/california-ag-least-13-states-suing-over-trump-s-national-n972796

poll/ 61% of Americans disapprove of Trump's decision to declare a national emergency to build his border wall along the southern border. 94% of Democrats and 63% of independents disapprove, while 12% of Republicans feel the same. Nearly 60% of Americans also don't believe there is an emergency at the southern border. (NPR-PBS News Hour-Marist)

https://www.npr.org/2019/02/19/695720851/poll-6-in-10-disapprove-of-trumps-declaration-of-a-national-emergency

    Notables 
Robert Mueller recommended that Paul Manafort spend 19-24 years in prison and pay up to $52 million in fines and forfeitures. Trump's former campaign chairman was convicted in August on eight felony counts including tax and bank fraud. Mueller added that "the government does not take a position as to the specific sentence to be imposed here," but he did remind the court about Manafort's long career of criminal activity. "Manafort acted for more than a decade as if he were above the law," Mueller said, "and deprived the federal government and various financial institutions of millions of dollars." (CNBC / Buzz Feed News / Bloomberg / Politico)

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/15/mueller-manafort-sentencing-1173314

Roger Stone was ordered to appear in court after posting a photo of the judge in his case with what appeared to be crosshairs near her head days after the judge imposed a gag order on him. The photo of Judge Amy Berman Jackson was posted alongside a caption that referred to her as "an Obama appointed judge who dismissed the Benghazi charges against Hillary Clinton and incarcerated Paul Manafort prior to his conviction for any crime." The post also mentioned the "Deep State" and featured a plea to help Stone "fight for my life" by donating to his legal defense fund. Stone later deleted the post and issued an apology. (Rolling Stone / The Guardian / Washington Post / NBC News) / NPR)

https://www.npr.org/2019/02/19/695940185/roger-stone-ordered-to-appear-in-court-following-post-that-criticized-judge

Former Maine Gov. Paul Le Page and his staff bought more than 40 rooms in Trump's D.C. hotel for $22,000 over a two-year period, which coincided with trips to meet with Trump or members of his inner circle, as well as visits to White House events and Congressional meetings. Le Page and his staff also spent hundreds of dollars on expensive steaks and other luxury menu items at the restaurants in Trump's hotel. (Portland Press Herald)

https://www.pressherald.com/2019/02/17/maine-paid-for-40-rooms-at-trump-hotel-for-lepage-staff/

Bernie Sanders announced that he is running for president again in 2020. Polls show the 77-year-old independent senator from Vermont ahead of the rest of the pack, trailing only Joe Biden in the 2020 field. (CNN / NBC News / New York Times)

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/19/politics/bernie-sanders-2020-presidential/index.html

Trump's pick to serve as ambassador to the United Nations withdrew from consideration. Heather Nauert had a nanny who was in the United States legally but did not have the proper work visa. (New York Times)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/us/politics/heather-nauert-withdraws-un-ambassador.html

Trump's former legislative affairs director will now serve as Pence's chief of staff. Marc Short will fill the role that was left vacant by Nick Ayers when he resigned earlier this year. (New York Times / CNBC)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/ex-trump-aide-marc-short-will-be-vice-president-mike-pences-chief-of-staff.html

Trump will sign a directive to establish a Space Force, but instead of being a new branch of the military dedicated to space, it will instead remain part of the Air Force. It will be structured similarly to how the Marine Corps falls under the Department of the Navy. (Politico)

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/18/trump-space-force-1182572

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272143: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:52:37 PM

[up][up][up] Hillary Clinton's margin of defeat was 2.1% in her favor. Rust belt states enjoy the double wammie of being favored by the EC math and being swing states, so I wouldn't count that out if it flipped states like PA towards McCain.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:55:47 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#272144: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:52:58 PM

Figuring out why Obama voters voted for Trump over Hillary is perhaps one of the great political essays yet to be written.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Feb 19th 2019 at 5:53:11 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Soban Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
#272145: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:59:03 PM

I think Trump will have been dead twenty years before anyone can look at anything he did with any semblance of objectivity.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272146: Feb 19th 2019 at 6:01:11 PM

[up][up] Sexism, Clinton not being an incumbent, the natural swing away from the party currently holding the White House. Clinton's campaign failing to recognize the vulnerability in the rust belt. The Trump campaign having a much stronger social media presence.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 9:01:21 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272147: Feb 19th 2019 at 6:02:30 PM

Sexism, Clinton not being an incumbent, the natural swing away from the party currently holding the White House. Clinton's campaign failing to recognize the vulnerability in the rust belt. The Trump campaign having a much stronger social media presence.

And racism.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#272148: Feb 19th 2019 at 6:04:56 PM

Biden has a history of misstatements to be sure, but doesn't Trump have a tendency of making horrible statements on purpose? Not that it matters to his base... I'm not entirely sure what point I'm trying to make here.

Do not obey in advance.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272149: Feb 19th 2019 at 6:05:21 PM

[up][up] Yes, but people find it hard to wrap their heads around how other factors can override prejudices of that nature; you kind of had to be racist or at the very least indifferent to racism to vote for Trump. Obama on the other had considerably more to offer than just being "the black guy."

[up] That things like #MeToo may not actually matter as much as we might prefer to the general electorate?

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 9:07:52 AM

HailMuffins Since: May, 2016 Relationship Status: Shipping fictional characters
#272150: Feb 19th 2019 at 6:24:33 PM

[up]Yet another reason that movement is so important.


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