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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#272101: Feb 19th 2019 at 3:27:42 PM

RE: Kavanaugh and Abortion

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/12/brett-kavanaugh-may-not-be-solid-ally-abortion-opponents-were-expecting.html

The short version being that Kavanaugh has repeatedly shown little to no interest in sticking his neck out for Republican ideology let alone the extremist Christian Right. He was appointed by Trump because of his statement that he doesn't believe a President should be prosecuted under any circumstances. Which people close to him have confirmed was basically him fishing for the job.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Feb 19th 2019 at 3:29:51 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
DeathorCake Since: Mar, 2016
#272102: Feb 19th 2019 at 3:29:49 PM

[up][up][up]

A possible. I am by no means well informed on Chinese economic trends at present and the data they produce tends to be somewhat unreliable. I know they have a gigantic private debt bubble themselves they built up by enforcing very loose credit policies to stay above water during the last crisis which remains unpopped, so that's a worry. Spillover from China to the States would probably be somewhat less than the other way around because of the import-export dynamics, but by no means comfortable.

Edited by DeathorCake on Feb 19th 2019 at 11:30:05 AM

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#272103: Feb 19th 2019 at 3:34:22 PM

[up][up] Repro rights activists don’t share that article’s optimism.

Kavanaugh’s dissent proves this point. In it, he says he would have let the law take effect and deny the stay without prejudice—meaning that if all providers but one were not able to comply with the statute, then the plaintiffs could re-file their request. In other words, Kavanaugh would let play out in Louisiana what originally played out in Texas before the Supreme Court eventually blocked HB 2—and thousands of people who needed abortions would have found themselves scrambling or unable to access them entirely.

Kavanaugh appears to concede that losing all but one provider would likely be an undue burden on abortion rights, an argument I suppose we may see arise should the Court ultimately grant Gee. But the substance of his dissent doesn’t really matter. It’s the fact that he made it at all. Kavanaugh is on the Supreme Court because he pinky-swore Susan Collins he’d uphold Roe. And yet. Not only is his first abortion rights vote to do the opposite, he authors the dissenting opinion, inviting states to ignore abortion rights precedent like Whole Woman’s Health.

Let me be very clear here. Kavanaugh didn’t have to write this dissent. He could have sat the first round of abortion rights fight at the Court out, especially considering his hyper-political confirmation process. But he didn’t. It’s hard not to read Kavanaugh’s decision to author Thursday’s dissent as a political rather than a legal one: assurance to those benefactors other than Collins that he’s a safe anti-choice vote.

HailMuffins Since: May, 2016 Relationship Status: Shipping fictional characters
#272104: Feb 19th 2019 at 3:35:16 PM

[up]x4 True, I didn't consider that, but until some reform is done, it is still going to be a reality of American (as in all of America, except the dictatorships and Argentina).

I suppose a problem with that is that electoral reform is generally parroted about by the side that lost whatever was the last election, and tends to be quickly fall into the background.

Edited by HailMuffins on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:36:16 AM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272105: Feb 19th 2019 at 3:42:59 PM

@DeathorCake: The current semi-slowndown (the economy is still growing...probably because of the large margin of error in economic data) is the result of policies designed to deflate said bubble, but it's hard to tell whether it's working or not.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#272106: Feb 19th 2019 at 3:46:29 PM

[up][up]Yes, there's a lot of alarmism about the fact a sexual predator is on the highest court in the land. I'm just noting I don't think that's optimism. I just think it's a sign he's a monster of a different sort.

His history is a conservative judge who takes the path of least resistance and keeping his head down—which is despicable in its own way. All of his prior decisions generally go in the way of nothing noteworthy.

"Anti-choice as long as it doesn't affect me or cause a fuss."

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Feb 19th 2019 at 3:48:18 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272107: Feb 19th 2019 at 3:56:47 PM

Once Biden enters the race, the progressive wing of the party needs to consolidate around a candidate quickly, and unless someone's pulled ahead of Sanders by that point he's in the best position to claim the title of consensus candidate, unfortunately.

I agree that progressives will need to coalesce around a candidate but I don't know if your assessment of his strength as a candidate is accurate, I mean, Biden actually is what some people thought Hillary Clinton was. An out of touch pseudo-progressive who is well past their time.

I just don't see the modern Democratic Party forming around a man with such a ridiculously checkered past, I could easily imagine Harris being less controversial than him and she her records in regards to criminal justice is legitimately unfortunate.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 19th 2019 at 6:59:22 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#272108: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:14:17 PM

Well, Hillary Clinton did also have a very checkered past and a problematic present in the form of an email controversy...

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#272109: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:14:56 PM

I'm pretty much sure it's either Warren or Biden. None of the other candidates I expect will come close. I don't like it necessarily for Biden but the laughing him off as a candidate is just plain weird.

Biden to a lot of people represents a return to the Obama-quo. He's also an easy figure to rally around versus everyone else's outsider status.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Feb 19th 2019 at 4:15:52 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272110: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:32:44 PM

Well, Hillary Clinton did also have a very checkered past and a problematic present in the form of an email controversy...

The email controversy was a nothingburger pushed by partisan hacks in the Right and balanced obsessed morons amongst the media.

I'm pretty much sure it's either Warren or Biden. None of the other candidates I expect will come close. I don't like it necessarily for Biden but the laughing him off as a candidate is just plain weird.

Biden to a lot of people represents a return to the Obama-quo. He's also an easy figure to rally around versus everyone else's outsider status.

Which do you think will offend the Democratic base more? The nice things he's said about Strom Thurmond or his creepy moments with women?

The man has decades of gaffes and currently politically nonviable positions, the idea that he won't face serious problems is ridiculous.

He's a dinosaur who's simply out of place in the modern Democratic political environment, I see no reason to believe that his name recognition will outweigh his many many flaws.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 19th 2019 at 7:33:23 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#272111: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:32:59 PM

> Biden to a lot of people represents a return to the Obama-quo. He's also an easy figure to rally around versus everyone else's outsider status.

except he's white and has none of the drive obama had,rallying around him hoping for "Yes we Can 2" is a fools errand

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272112: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:34:53 PM

@Fourth: People underestimate the number of moderate democrats still in the party.

[up] Which is why if he wins his VP will most likely be Kamala Harris.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 7:37:55 AM

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#272113: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:36:16 PM

I think that Biden has some value....as a surrogate campaigner is certain states where the nominee might be unknown or somewhat unpopular. Similar to Bill Clinton helping Obama out.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Ultimatum Disasturbator from the Amiga Forest (Old as dirt) Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Disasturbator
#272114: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:40:14 PM

"Uncle Joe should stay in bed!" would be my campaign line if I was running against him,would'nt use the "He's too old line" as that would come across as being well,ageist

have a listen and have a link to my discord server
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272115: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:43:37 PM

@Fourth: People underestimate the number of moderate democrats still in the party.

Perhaps, but that doesn't mean that moderates are enough to reliably win.

Over the years they've become an increasingly endangered species in the Democratic Party.

So my point stands, at best Biden will be facing an uphill battle.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#272116: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:45:32 PM

I'd sooner vote for Biden than Sanders, that's for sure.

But they're both at the bottom of my list. Like, I think only Tulsi Gabbard is below them?

We've got quite a few stellar and some halfway decent candidates, and I'd like to see one of those succeed.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#272117: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:50:54 PM

[up]x3 I think that line also comes off as ageist, personally.

In any case, the polls right now are mostly informed by name recognition, and everyone knows Joe Biden. I believe that Hillary Clinton was the clear frontrunner in the polls this time in 2007, and we all know how that turned out.

The way I see it, as the campaign season goes on and people get to know the candidates, the stronger ones with begin siphon off support from the weaker ones, which will only increase when people start to drop out of the race. Kamala Harris, just to name one example (and to be clear, her criminal justice record is enough that she wouldn't be my first choice), could be looking much better in the December polls than she does right now.

Edited by KarkatTheDalek on Feb 19th 2019 at 7:51:59 AM

Oh God! Natural light!
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272118: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:53:52 PM

I'd sooner vote for Biden than Sanders, that's for sure.

But they're both at the bottom of my list. Like, I think only Tulsi Gabbard is below them?

We've got quite a few stellar and some halfway decent candidates, and I'd like to see one of those succeed.

Bloomberg is rather awful, he has garbage economic policies and is mediocre on the social front. If Sanders cares more about economic issues then social issues Bloomberg is the exact opposite, and he still manages to mess up with social issues (like when he has defended his stop and frisk policies that predominantly affected Latino and black men).

He's utter trash, only Gabbard is worse.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272119: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:54:16 PM

@Fourth: Strategic voting is likely to be another major factor; Biden is by far the best matchup against Trump in a general election at this point in time, and electability is likely a top consideration.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#272120: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:56:09 PM

Generally my attitude is that I'm going to vote for Warren in the primaries and support anyone who is primaried.

Yes, including Bloodberg [spelling deliberate] and/or Kermit the Frog if he's selected.

No one will be worse than Trump.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Feb 19th 2019 at 4:56:19 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272121: Feb 19th 2019 at 4:56:31 PM

@Fourth: Strategic voting is likely to be another major factor; Biden is by far the best matchup against Trump in a general election at this point in time, and electability is likely a top consideration.

How is Biden the most electable? I've already listed some of the reasons that the base would dislike or distrust him, this is just baffling.

Generally my attitude is that I'm going to vote for Warren in the primaries and support anyone who is primaried.

Yes, including Bloodberg [spelling deliberate] and/or Kermit the Frog if he's selected.

No one will be worse than Trump.

I would vote for anyone other than Tulsi Gabbard, if I wanted an Islamophobe with shady connections to far-right groups I'd just support Trump.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 19th 2019 at 7:57:20 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#272122: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:00:01 PM

[up][up][up] I think that's a little premature. The primary is an opportunity for the candidates to introduce themselves to the public - it could easily help elevate some of them to national renown.

Oh God! Natural light!
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272123: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:07:57 PM

[up][up] As much as people in political circles talk as if there's been a complete black and white polarization of politics, the general electorate is a lot more moderate than people think.

to the report, 25 percent of Americans are traditional or devoted conservatives, and their views are far outside the American mainstream. Some 8 percent of Americans are progressive activists, and their views are even less typical. By contrast, the two-thirds of Americans who don’t belong to either extreme constitute an “exhausted majority.” Their members “share a sense of fatigue with our polarized national conversation, a willingness to be flexible in their political viewpoints, and a lack of voice in the national conversation.”

That's the path for a centrist to win the general election.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:09:25 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#272124: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:12:29 PM

Appealing those self-proclaimed moderates is worthless if it alienates the base, and there is no reason to believe that the Democratic base wants a centrist.

To suggest that Biden is the most electable because moderates exist and they might be motivated to vote for a Democrat (or more likely they won't because they firmly believe in #bothsides holier than thou nonsense) is ridiculous, I see no reason to believe that an out of date centrist is viable or efficacious as a candidate.

You're making a lot of assumptions with very little evidence.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:13:09 AM

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#272125: Feb 19th 2019 at 5:19:52 PM

[up] The base (both yours and the opposition) is irrelevant in the general election since they'll vote for you (or your opponent) no matter what; they're* useful idiots in other words who are only relevant if party machine politics start breaking down and allowing them to actually influence outcomes in primaries. What's relevant are voters who are A. persuadable, and B. likely to vote, and the cross section of those two categories are moderates, aka the median voter. You can win via an alternative strategy of energizing disengaged voters at the edges of the Overton window, but that's a far less politically safe strategy than centrism, and tends to be looked down upon for good reasons since it brings out extremists.

* Or rather we're, since nobody here is considering casting a vote for Trump AFAIK. Rather ironic isn't it how a shrewd politician will stab stab their most loyal constituents in the back?

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Feb 19th 2019 at 8:22:26 AM


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