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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#268176: Jan 21st 2019 at 3:31:01 PM

2020 will be a presidential election year though, which means higher Democratic turnout. Beto barely lost last year with already unusually high turnout, so I can imagine the momentum can carry him to success in 2020. Plus, he already has a strong network in Texas, which will be undoubtedly useful for his campaign as well as House candidates looking for a boost.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#268177: Jan 21st 2019 at 3:34:52 PM

On non-Presidential terms, the simple fact is Beto is the only game in Texas town and has growing rather than reducing momentum.

I see no problem with him making Texas as much a battleground as possible.

Yes, he's not enough to make it a battleground yet but its more than it would be under anyone else.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jan 21st 2019 at 3:36:33 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
TacticalFox88 from USA Since: Nov, 2010 Relationship Status: Dating the Doctor
#268178: Jan 21st 2019 at 3:52:27 PM

It should be noted that Beto's coattails in 2018 were game changers, and some local Republicans in the major cities in TX were completely wiped out.

That is MASSIVE.

If Beto is on the top or bottom of the ticket, who knows what other important positions in TX might come under Dem control.

New Survey coming this weekend!
fruitpork Since: Oct, 2010
#268179: Jan 21st 2019 at 3:55:05 PM

I really, really hope Harris wins. If nothing else, to quash the idiots screaming about how she’s not really black. Don’t go on twitter. Angry voters are finding reasons not to vote for her already. Perfect is the enemy of the good indeed.

Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#268180: Jan 21st 2019 at 3:56:00 PM

Beto is a decent guy, but it's not unfair to note his record isn't that great. He's inspiring, charismatic, a strong campaigner and helped build a Democratic infrastructure in Texas. His record can probably be attributed to ambitions for statewide office in Texas, and some of the attacks on him have been comically terrible...but this doesn't mean he's ready to be President.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#268181: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:05:24 PM

Biden speaks on systematic racism at MLK event.

"The bottom line is we have a lot to root out, but most of all the systematic racism that most of us whites don't like to acknowledge even exists," Biden said at an event hosted by the Rev. Al Sharpton and the National Action Network. "We don't even consciously acknowledge it. But it's been built into every aspect of our system."

"Because when your schools are substandard, when your houses are undervalued, when your car insurance costs more for no apparent reason, when poverty rates for black Americans is still twice that of white Americans, ... there's something we have to admit. Not you — we — White America has to admit there's a still a systematic racism. And it goes almost unnoticed by so many of us."

Biden also expressed optimism that positive change is on its way, referencing the historic nature of the presidential inauguration he attended 10 years ago this weekend, when Barack Obama became the nation's first African-American president.

"There I was, it just hit me, standing, waiting for a black man to come 28 miles from Philadelphia to pick me up and take me on a 128-mile ride to be sworn in as president and vice president United States. Don't tell me, don't tell me things can't change!" Biden said to applause.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#268182: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:15:53 PM

Biden: Have I mentioned Obama and I are friends?

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
superboy313 Since: May, 2015
#268183: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:33:52 PM

[up][up]Who do you think would make for a good President in 2020? Biden? Sanders? If you ask me, I'd love to see some younger minds like O'Rourke.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#268184: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:38:19 PM

My picks would be Warren and Biden personally.

Bernie would be good if he recanted on his racial politics. He doesn't need to do much, just promise to work for them as well as across the board economic reform because they need it especially.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#268185: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:48:29 PM

I’m not here for Biden, at all. He was absolutely horrible to Anita Hill, and still doesn’t seem to have learned from it- or apologized to her. His “awakening” on racial issues was within the last 10 years! He backed a nasty crime bill, he constantly scolds millennials for being ungrateful/whiny, and he’s really old. And he’s gross with the hugging and cheek-kissing of women at events. Hell no. I hope he gets wiped out early.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#268186: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:52:39 PM

If Biden gets it, okay, but I don't really see any particular reason he's better than any of the other potential candidates.

Edited by LSBK on Jan 21st 2019 at 6:55:27 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#268187: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:53:16 PM

My support on Biden is because he's an individual who is a known quantity who will follow the Obama trail and Democratic lead completely. There won't be any nasty surprises or policy issues because he's an individual who paints by the numbers. Right now that would be very welcome and necessary to work completely with the DNC in reversing Trump's B.S.

Frankly, our next term President will be playing janitor and we need someone who mops very well.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jan 21st 2019 at 4:53:58 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#268188: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:54:41 PM

Paint by numbers and known quantity aren’t inherently good qualities if you’re painting a bad picture and you’re predictably mediocre. Biden can gtfo. He wasn’t even a great candidate in 2008, let alone 2020.

I don’t want a janitor who just returns us to the crappy status quo; we need to move FORWARD.

Edited by wisewillow on Jan 21st 2019 at 7:55:20 AM

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#268189: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:56:16 PM

I'd be happy to support Biden if he picks one of the younger and aggressive candidates as his running mate. A Biden-Harris ticket I can totally get behind.

But my first choice at the moment is either Harris or Gillibrand.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#268190: Jan 21st 2019 at 4:57:48 PM

I don’t want a janitor who just returns us to the crappy status quo; we need to move FORWARD.

I am very much for moving forward but, like I said, the problem is the next President after Trump isn't going to be able to do that in their first term. They're going to be the rebuilder.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#268191: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:02:10 PM

Charles, I fail to see why someone can do both repair, and progress, so that by itself isn't a convincing argument for Biden.

I don't even take it as a given that if he were to win he wouldn't be for progress, and you're still not selling me on your position.

wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#268192: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:02:27 PM

[up][up][up] That ticket is my worst nightmare. Ok, no, to be fair, Bloomberg would be worse. But at any rate, Harris’ record on criminal justice, trans rights, and sex worker rights is absolutely appalling. I prefer her to Biden, but yikes. No thanks.

Edited by wisewillow on Jan 21st 2019 at 8:02:44 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#268193: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:07:53 PM

I'm not trying to sell you on my position. 'm just sharing mine. I believe Biden and Warren are the two people for the job right now. No one else has given me the impression they can fix Trump's mess yet.

So it's them right now for me.

No one else has demonstrated the experience or skill for me.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jan 21st 2019 at 5:08:44 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#268194: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:08:58 PM

[up]I mean, you haven't actually explained why you think that though. You've just said.

[up][up]How do you define "absolutely appalling"? Because from the things posted it here, it seems she's been involved with some bad stuff, but I'm not sure if that says her record is terrible.

This is interesting, because you seem to be the person least positive (or actively repelled) by her here.

Edited by LSBK on Jan 21st 2019 at 7:12:29 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#268195: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:11:23 PM

I don't think the other candidates have demonstrated any sign they could do it. In 2016 I felt the situation was stable enough we could go far more radical and new. In 2020, I feel like it will need a strongly experienced candidate (or "insider") with lots of political capital to burn.

I believe any newcomer will crash and burn because the very foundations of democracy have to be rebuilt and strengthened. To quote Deus Ex, the crown of government is tarnished but that will fade...in time.

So, definitely, I want a known Democrat—especially since the mainstream party has moved left. This is a job that will take MUCH experience so I'm voting for those with the most experience.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jan 21st 2019 at 5:14:03 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
AzurePaladin She/Her Pronouns from Forest of Magic Since: Apr, 2018 Relationship Status: Mu
She/Her Pronouns
#268196: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:17:38 PM

I guess Warren and Gillibrand would be my first two picks, probably. I have issues with those two, but less then I do with others. If Stacey Abrams or Andrew Gilliam were to run, either of them would shoot up to around the top of the list. Harris...well, I probably won't back her in the primaries, unless she walks back some of her earlier positions on things like Trans Rights.

Any of them over Biden or *especially* Gabbard, though.

Edited by AzurePaladin on Jan 21st 2019 at 8:17:50 AM

The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -Fighteer
AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#268197: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:47:08 PM

Gillibrand and Harris would be my top picks, followed by Warren.

Shaoken (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Dating Catwoman
#268198: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:49:16 PM

And in today's edition of "Is Rudy Giuliani trying to get his client found guilty", Rudy admits that Trump was discussing plans for building Trump Tower in Russia throughout 2016, contradicting the previous official story that he was not involved in such discussions whilst campaigning.

    open/close all folders 

    Trump-Russia story keeps changing as lawyer Giuliani speaks again 
US President Donald Trump’s Russia problem is not going anywhere and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani spent the weekend making new bizarre revelations about the relationship. The former New York mayor said Mr Trump was involved in discussions about building a Trump Tower Moscow throughout his 2016 presidential campaign. “It’s our understanding that they went on throughout 2016 — there weren’t a lot of them, but there were conversations,” Mr Giuliani told NBC’s Meet The Press. He told The New York Times Mr Trump had said negotiations to build a hotel in Russia were “going on from the day I announced to the day I won”. That’s a major step forward from previous claims by the President’s associates that he was minimally involved in talks of a deal and that it was cancelled far earlier. It would mean Mr Trump was still involved in a Russian deal when he called for an end to economic sanctions against the nation imposed by Barack Obama, gave interviews questioning the legitimacy of NATO, and called on Russia to release hacked Democratic emails.

Donald Trump has been battling allegations over his ties with Russia since the beginning of his presidency. Picture: AP Photo/Alex Brandon Source:AP Trump aides initially said the plans for a Moscow real estate deal ended well before the Republican primaries in February 2016, but they were forced to change that story. Special Counsel Robert Mueller started investigating alleged collusion by the Trump campaign with Russia in May 2017. Huge stakes are at play.

The Mueller investigation could find Mr Trump has done nothing wrong in which case there would be no consequences for the president. If it finds Mr Trump broke the law, the Congress could impeach him or investigators could ask a grand jury to deem Mr Trump a conspirator and send a report to Congress. The most aggressive option would be for Mr Trump to be indicted. In November 2018, Mr Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about the tower negotiations and Mr Mueller revealed the talks had extended until at least the middle of 2016. Cohen said the discussions lasted until June 2016, the day the Washington Post claimed Russians had hacked Democrat computer, the first reported evidence of election meddling. There was even talk between Cohen and Mr Trump of the presidential candidate travelling to Russia, according to court documents. Mr Trump repeatedly denied having connections to Russia. In July 2016, he tweeted that he had “ZERO investments in Russia” and said, “The closest I came to Russia, I bought a house a number of years ago in Palm Beach.”

In October 2016, he added: “I know nothing about the inner workings of Russia. I don’t deal there. I have no businesses there. I have no loans from Russia.” After the announcement of Cohen’s guilty plea in November 2018, Mr Trump said: “He’s lying about a project that everybody knew about. I mean, we were very open with it ... This deal was a very public deal. Everybody knows about this deal. I wasn’t trying to hide anything.” He said that if he had not won the presidency, he could have pursued the deal. Last week, Buzzfeed sensationally alleged Mr Trump had ordered Cohen to lie to Congress about the real estate deal — which would be a federal crime and potential grounds for impeachment. They cited federal law enforcement sources’ evidence as well as documents and email allegedly obtained by the Special Counsel’s office. But a spokesman for Mr Mueller called the report “inaccurate” in a rare statement. “Buzzfeed’s description of specific statements to the Special Counsel’s Office, and characterisation of documents and testimony obtained by this office, regarding Michael Cohen’s Congressional testimony are not accurate,” spokesman Peter Carr said. Buzzfeed’s reporters have stood by their story, insisting their sources are “solid” and the story is accurate.

His lawyer Rudy Giuliani now says Mr Trump was involved in conversations about a proposed Trump Tower Moscow throughout 2016 — far later than previously acknowledged. Picture: Saul Loeb / AFP Source:AFP Editor-in-chief Ben Smith encouraged Mr Mueller’s office to clarify which statements they believed were “not accurate”, saying: “We are eager to understand which characterisations Mueller is talking about and obviously we take that incredibly seriously. We haven’t heard where the gap is and where we can continue our reporting to close it.” Mr Giuliani’s statements over the past week have diluted the repeated denials by the Trump camp over discussions with Russia. First, he said Mr Trump “never said there was no collusion”, did not collude in “any way, shape or form” and had no knowledge of collusion “by any of the thousands of people who worked on the campaign” — leaving open that possibility. He also said the future president might have talked to Cohen before the lawyer’s testimony but never instructed him to lie. The President “doesn’t remember the dates”, his lawyer told The Times. “He does remember conversations about Moscow. He does remember the letter of intent. He does remember, after that, fleeting conversations.” Another damaging moment for Mr Trump last week came when it emerged that the FBI began investigating whether he was (wittingly or unwittingly) working on Russia’s behalf after his firing of former FBI Director James Comey.

Several Trump associates have been indicted over connections with Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Picture: Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP Source:AP Mr Mueller took over these strands of investigation, and his highly anticipated report could be released any day now. There are concerns from Democrats that William Barr — Mr Trump’s pick for Attorney-General — could hamper the completion of the investigation, but he has promised to allow its completion. The Russia probe’s findings are the subject of intense speculation and it is hoped that Mr Mueller’s report will also be made public. The Democrats are also running their own investigations into Mr Trump’s business affairs and ties with Russia. Several Trump aides and associates have already been indicted as a result of the probe. There is evidence members of his team and family had contact with Russia throughout the campaign and transition period, and some lied about this communication. There is also evidence some of his advisers were discussing a possible email release from Wiki Leaks during the campaign before it occurred. US intelligence agencies and Mr Mueller have said Russia was the source of hacked material released by Wiki Leaks that damaged Hillary Clinton’s chances. The Russia question is not the only one bothering the President, with prosecutors in New York separately investigating allegations he directed Cohen to make illegal hush-money payments to two women who said they had affairs with Mr Trump.

Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#268199: Jan 21st 2019 at 5:53:44 PM

She said she had Native heritage.

Not that she was Native American.

Which seems to be the issue.

The issue is that people don't understand DNA tests (including journalists), and this lack of scientific knowledge is easily exploitable by politicians who themselves don't understand the subject.

This is what the test actually concluded:

  • Of the DNA sample she provided, five segments identify as Native American with 99% confidence, totalling 12.3 million bases.
  • Chromosome 10 contains the largest segment of Native American DNA, at 4.7 million bases, and indicates a recent ancestor.
  • The five segments gives her 12.4 times more Native American ancestry than the British reference population that they used and 10.5 times more Native American than the reference Utah population they used.
  • The conclusion is that there is strong evidence for a full Native American ancestor approximately 6-10 generations ago (as a cautious estimate).
  • Testing for Native American ancestry does have limitations because reference samples for Native American DNA have to come from Mexicans, Peruvians and Colombians due to the sensitive nature of DNA testing among Native American populations within the US. It's considered an accurate proxy but it is a proxy.
  • The only safe conclusion the test can draw is that there is a strong evidence that Warren does have a small amount of Native American ancestry.

Attempts to dismiss the test centred on claiming 'average' levels of Native American ancestry among European-Americans and that, if Warren's ancestor was 10 generations removed, her fraction works out as less than this 'average'. This is disingenuous:

  • The DNA test report doesn't give any DNA percentages so any attempts to create fractions stem solely from working out what 6-10 generations are as a percentage (in the vein of one parent is 50%, one grandparent is 25%, etc.).
    • Genetic inheritance doesn't work like this. For example, a study has estimated that there's a 13% chance that a person will inherit nothing from an ancestor that is 8 generations removed, meaning that a person could be eight generations removed from a Native American ancestor and have absolutely no evidence of Native American ancestry in their genes.
    • At 10 generations, this chance of inheriting nothing jumps to 50%.
    • Even if we knew what percentage of Warren's tested DNA was Native American, it still wouldn't necessarily reflect the strength of her ancestry.
    • The entire concept of an 'average' level of Native American ancestry in European-Americans is genetic nonsense.

The true take-home message from this incident is that the standard level of scientific education people should have in every day life really should be much higher than it is. The US, however, is definitely not alone in this issue.

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
wisewillow She/her Since: May, 2011
She/her
#268200: Jan 21st 2019 at 6:05:11 PM

Here’s one thread which encapsulates some of my issues with Harris. There’s also more on her record with sex workers here.

As for Warren... Native Americans have good reason to be frustrated. Here’s an essay from a Native American journalist.

I think whether Warren listens and gives a proper apology is a test of her leadership. When you’re told you hurt someone, even accidentally, a good leader should listen and apologize. Not ignore the issue or skirt around it. Doing the test in the first place was a mistake.


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