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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
That's actually not entirely correct: Kentucky is a red state but he is usually unpopular there and his election performance in 2014 was unimpressive when compared to the lean of the state and of the national environment back then. Quite possible that had he been up for reelection in 2018 he could have lost.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanWell, that's already priced in in the election result of 2014 which I used
as a baseline.
On the other hand it seems like I misunderstood the meaning of the RealClearPolitics margin (it's a between party margin, not a party-50% margin) so the actual formula is 56.2 (his result in 2014)-0.94 (a correction factor since Kentucky elections do not neatly trace the national environment; what the 538 folks call the "elasticity")*14.1(the difference between the national environments in 2014 and 2018 according to RealClearPolitics)-40.7 (Lundergan Grimes's result in 2014)=2.246 so he would have actually won by 2.3%. Which is far from a safe reelection, though.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanYou would know, wouldn't you?
Remember that the term Fake News was originally used to refer to false statements used by right-wing and Russian ‘news’ organisations trying to hurt Hillary.
Trump stole the term, but it’s original intent was to refer to him.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranSomething breaking, not sure yet of significance:
Trump says Pelosi's overseas trip 'has been postponed' because of shutdown
Story is new and still updating. All we really have right now is:
"We will reschedule this seven-day excursion when the Shutdown is over," Trump said in a letter to Pelosi, referring to the nearly four-week-long partial shutdown of the government over border security disputes between the president and Democratic lawmakers.
But on TV on CNN is the headline "Trump writes letter to Pelosi: I'm cancelling your trip"
Edited by sgamer82 on Jan 17th 2019 at 12:21:37 PM
That's a power play. He's trying to make the shutdown hurt more for Pelosi and Schumer.
Trump's not negotiating here; he's pushing for an unconditional surrender. It's why he walked out of the last discussion Pelosi and Schumer held with him. By all accounts, he walked into the room, asked if they'd cave, and then told them where to shove it and walked out when they said no.
To him, there's nothing else that needs to be said. This is not a negotiation, it's a war of attrition. Trump believes that Democrats need a functioning government more than he does, and so he'll accept nothing less than complete and absolute acquiescence to his demands in exchange for it. If we're not giving him everything he wants, then to him, there is indeed nothing further to discuss.
This is also an apt demonstration of his authoritarian and un-businesslike thinking. Any halfway competent businessman would have asked for ten billion for the wall. That way, he could settle with Pelosi and Schumer at the five billion he actually wants. You always demand too much and then negotiate down to your actual desired amount. That's Negotiation 101.
World's greatest negotiator, everybody.
Edited by TobiasDrake on Jan 17th 2019 at 12:44:58 PM
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.I knew McConnell has been blocking all the Democrats' attempts to reopen the government by refusing to even let the bills be brought to the Senate floor to begin with, but I didn't know that he was actually avoiding the Democratic Congress(wo)men themselves as well. Yeah, this cowardice needs to be shoved into the spotlight and he deserves every bit of public shaming he gets over this and a lot more.
On Trump "canceling" Pelosi's trip: ... Can the POTUS do that to a member of Congress?
Edited by MarqFJA on Jan 17th 2019 at 11:08:25 PM
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.![]()
Yeah, this is kind of an empty threat. But it does show that he wants Democrats to Kowtow to him, not negotiate with him.
Technically, all he is doing is not allowing Pelosi to fly on Military Planes. Pelosi can do her job, she just has to do it commercial. But he does have the authority to deny individuals the right to fly on Military Property, being Commander in Chief and all.
Edited by DingoWalley1 on Jan 17th 2019 at 3:10:54 PM
What, was Pelosi originally planning to fly on Air Force One or something?
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.He's clearly used to "negotiating" with people who have no negotiating power at all.
It's the same tactic he used when Mexico refused to pay for the wall: "It just got ten feet taller!"
Commercial aircraft can be made safe, and there’s always chartered flights. Military aircraft are generally considered a privilege for the higher-ranking members of our government, since they fly exactly when you want them to, cut through all civilian air traffic, fly into and out of otherwise denied areas, and are generally quite convenient.
Apparently, this isn’t just affecting Pelosi.
Fox is told there are furious calls going back and forth now between the Hill, State, Pentagon and White House.
Edited by megaeliz on Jan 17th 2019 at 3:26:14 PM

Evil Turtle is trying to protect his senators from controversial votes, and the House bills to reopen the government are controversial votes for his party and vulnerable incumbents like Susan Collins and Cory Gardner:
- Vote in favour and you get deemed a RINO illoyal to Trump and possibly primaried.
- Vote against and you get deemed a Trump sycophant and will struggle in a general election.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman