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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#267326: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:34:46 PM

They picked up 40 seats which were near mathematically impossible for them not to do so, they got CRUSHED at the state level when it was any kind of competitive, see again Flordia, Texas, Georgia... and lost 2 seats when they needed to hold on to all there seats to really have a chance to flip things in 2020, I was not expecting them to win senate, but at least not leave it in a worse spot then they came in.....

This is an utterly insanely pessimistic way of looking at it. And not really true. First of all, they picked up 20 seats that were fairly solid, and 20 that were competitive. Secondly, you're really blatantly ignoring the reason there were so many easy opportunities for them to pick up seats: Everybody hates Trump and jumped at the opportunity to vote against him. And since then he's done nothing about double down on the attitudes that turned everyone against him, meaning he's likely to get crushed even more lopsidedly in 2020.

Like, yeah, massive Democratic gains in the House was no surprise to anyone who was paying attention. But to claim that because, you saw it coming a mile away, it's no reason to believe things are going badly for Trump is... counter-intuitive at best.

Also, if you think they can't flip any districts, where on earth to do you think the 40 districts they took from the Republicans came from?

Edited by Gilphon on Jan 15th 2019 at 1:36:47 PM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#267327: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:35:43 PM

They're trying to deal with the Anti-Semitism accusations.

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/women-s-march-names-3-jewish-women-to-its-steering-committee-1.6846205

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#267328: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:39:21 PM

[up] Farrakhan's a red line for me. Too little, too late.

Once again, see DACA where they fucked over dreamers TWICE, in the name of capitulating for a goverment shutdown, or how they took weeks to evict a known sexual assault from congress.

Trying to claim the Democrats were screwing over Dreamers when the Democrats tried to pass the DREAM act to begin, and have attempted to fight for them in the past? It's not passing muster. Especially given the rest of the efforts. Yo claim Democrats only give women's issues 'lip service' is not suaring with reality when you look at the legislative record.

I'm not even sure what you mean with 'weeks to evict a known sexual assaulter'...Franken? The line was "investigation" and then 30 senators came out to say he should resign when more women came out

They picked up 40 seats which were near mathematically impossible for them not to do so, they got CRUSHED at the state level when it was any kind of competitive, see again Flordia, Texas, Georgia... and lost 2 seats when they needed to hold on to all there seats to really have a chance to flip things in 2020, I was not expecting them to win senate, but at least not leave it in a worse spot then they came in.....

I'm sorry....what? When it was 'competitive?' What does this mean? The Democrats cleaned up in multiple states, took multiple governorships, ballot initiatives and state legislatures.

Also, the same amount of house seats are up pretty much every 2 years. No, it's not 'near mathematically impossible' for them to lose out on that when they have before. They made gains beyond what most were expecting.

They won a seat in freaking Arizona, and that means nothing?

The map being historically awful only works as an excuse to a point, especially since it was supposed to be a historic high point for voter enthusiasm, which apperntly it either wasn't or that doesn't mater.

Or it's just hard for Democrats to win in Trump states.

because voter turnout was high across the board. Hence why Democrats won 40 seats, which you cannot downplay the importance of

The take away is 2020 is probably a wash as well, because if we cant flip any districts, and can only loose what we held, how are we supposed to evict a Cheetos who won with a rather significant district advantage. (Even if he did loose the popular vote, that is sadly irelevent come election day until such a thing is fixed)

There's a point where pessimism just becomes masochistic more than constructive. Bemoaning "Oh, 2020 is going to be such a wash" after a midterm wave? Is getting to that point.

It's not helpful, nor is it insightful.

Which wont mater since Trump got to seat two conservative justices, one of whom was a rapist, and the other one of whom was stolen.

The USSC cannot hear all those cases. Just by design, they won't be able to

Any local judges can just have a case punted over there head to the higher one, which will inevitably go badly for us now.

Uhhh...huh. You do know how the appeals process and certiorari works?

Too be replaced by worse people? Whenever you think its a good thing some one on Trumps team resigns, he finds a way to find some one worse, there is a reason every one was upset about a actual war criminal resigning... and thats that some how, an and this bears repeating ACTUAL WAR CRIMINAL who was discharged from the marines for it..... was considered the sane man on the team.

"Don't fight Trump, fight the Democrats for not being perfect" is your argument then? Forget going after Trump's corruption, they'll just be replaced?

Sorry, but it's really hard to know what you want here, or if you're just looking for reasons to be pessimistic. To claim the Women's march is the only bright spot while downplaying everything else? It makes no sense.

Edited by Lightysnake on Jan 15th 2019 at 10:41:12 AM

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#267329: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:44:01 PM

Beto had a lot of hype behind him (somewhat understandably), but flipping Texas was always going to be incredibly difficult, the democratic party infrastructure there is very weak AFAIK so that Beto had a competitive race at all was significant. Obviously that doesn't translate to immediate results but it wasn't all bad. The midterms had an unprecedented victory for black women in Texas, with 19 of them being elected to judgeships.The county they won in is also the biggest in Texas and the third most populous in the whole country. Those kinds of thing do matter.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Jan 15th 2019 at 2:48:54 PM

Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#267330: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:45:48 PM

The important part of Beto's race besides his coattails helping others to victory? Helping to build an infrastructure for Dems in Texas.

That's how victories go on down the road. Flipping states is not easy, but it happens. Ohio has trended more red, while New Mexico and Nevada have trended blue...Arizona might be verging to swing

The worst disappointment for me was Florida, hands down. FL is a unique state: a Latino base that swings more rightward coupled with a hard, elderly white base that isn't dying off so much as being replaced.

Edited by Lightysnake on Jan 15th 2019 at 10:49:34 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#267331: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:48:42 PM

A general attitude seems to basically be, "Why is this nightmare not over yet?" There's a general sense that anything other than, "Sanity will be restored in 3..2..1" is a failure.

  • Trump will be impeached
  • The Blue Wave will wipe out the Senate and House
  • The Mueller report will expose Trump and he'll be removed
  • The GOP will suddenly turn on Trump because they can't be stupid enough to stand behind him.
  • The shutdown will turn all of the country against Trump.

It's constant and neverending the idea this is just not a fight that will have to be made like any other. Trump's existence is agitating to some people in ways Bush never was.

And yet it is the new reality and will have to be dealt with in incriminates and a sustained long lasting fight that will be over every inch of ground. Because the GOP will fight for him to the bitter end.....and then rebuild after he's gone.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jan 15th 2019 at 10:49:05 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#267332: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:50:05 PM

Of course. We can only save ourselves collectively. The ballot box is our salvation.

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#267333: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:51:31 PM

The worst disappointment for me was Florida, hands down. FL is a unique state: a Latino base that swings more rightward coupled with a hard, elderly white base that isn't dying off so much as being replaced.

A former acquaintance of mine rather cynically once said "Florida is the place where all the old white people go spend their money so they won't leave anything behind for their children." It's a bit of a crass statement but I can see now there was some truth to it.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#267334: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:55:01 PM

ACTUAL WAR CRIMINAL who was discharged from the marines for it

Just a note here, Mattis was dismissed from his position as head of CENTCOM by Obama for what are essentially political reasons, namely that he’s an Iran hawk. The whole war crimes thing has always been a wash with him, either it hasn’t quite been war crimes or turned out to be overblown.

Mattis would have been a good choice for Sec Def in any administration, much less this one.

They should have sent a poet.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#267335: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:55:21 PM

Also my impression is that while Republicans are resigned to African Americans never voting for them, some of them still see a chance in winning over Latino voters and are putting effort in that pays off. While Democrats do not necessarily make enough effort and that this is a problem with Florida.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Lightysnake Since: May, 2010
#267336: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:56:42 PM

This is so. Rick Scott did make that effort.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#267337: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:58:52 PM

The Republican Party has gone through a massive re-shuffle since Bush II and there has been an enormous number of people thrown out of its halls of power. Its been gradually moving to the Center on a lot of issues, particularly racial for some time now with Dubya having been a chief sponsor for that but supported by Jeb as well as others including Mc Cain and yes even Romney.

(Bush was a moron but probably the least racist Republican leader you'd find)

Which all got thrown to shit by Trump's nativist pot banging. Not dog whistles anymore but just whistles.

Lots of people either got with the problem or were isolated then thrown from power.

The Tea party was eating away at the centrist ("Moderate") Republicans a long time and the fact they had the Koch money behind them helped them be in place to fully overthrow the rest when Trump rode to power on their platform.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jan 15th 2019 at 10:59:22 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#267338: Jan 15th 2019 at 10:59:16 PM

Well it works because older latino voters tend to be socially conservative and pro-business. My father is one example.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#267339: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:00:02 PM

The movement to appeal to Latino voters is dead in the water given Trump's primary target is them in all stripes.

His definition of immigrant is akin to Herbert Hoover's and wishes he could do as he did and throw everyone out of the country with a vaguely Hispanic sounding name.

Puerto Rico itself should understand the Republicans have nothing for them.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jan 15th 2019 at 11:01:47 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#267340: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:10:40 PM

Yeah, it’s worth noting that there was a significant minority of Latinos who actually voted for Trump in 2016. They’re definitely a potential swing vote.

They should have sent a poet.
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#267341: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:20:39 PM

Yes, anti-immigration had wiggle room.

"Actively wants you killed or exiled from the country"?

Not so much.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#267342: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:30:33 PM

[up] You’d think that, but surprisingly it doesn’t always shake out that way. Around 40% of Hispanics vote consistently Republican. That number dipped in 2016 but has climbed back up, with a 10 point upwards jump just last year even, getting close to that 40% again. There’s a sizable conservative minority among Hispanics which is why Republicans consistently try to reach out to them, even if they rarely do a good job of it.

They should have sent a poet.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#267343: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:32:30 PM

Especially in Florida, where a good chunk of them are from Cuba (or were born to people from Cuba). People who understandably hated the fuck out of Castro and thus hated anything remotely leftist.

Disgusted, but not surprised
PushoverMediaCritic I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out. from the Italy of America Since: Jul, 2015 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out.
#267344: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:33:00 PM

As a Jew, I am disgusted that anyone would still be supporting The Woman's March. Not only do I support the DNC's decision to pull their funding, but I am also disgusted at Imca in particular for continuing to argue for them. I have personally read stories of Jewish women who were driven from the Woman's March just for being proudly Jewish. Women deserve a better organization to march for and to support them, not an anti-Semitic, cis supremacist garbage fire.

The Democrats just got through what will probably be the toughest two years of their political careers. They had to hold the line and protect the American public the best they could while the Republicans held the Presidency, the House majority, and the Senate majority. Accusing the Democrats of not caring about their constituents is completely unfair, and ignores the completely one-sided battle they had to fight just to save as many people as they could. Yeah, they didn't make much progress, but it was a miracle we didn't backslide much further than we did.

When midterms came, even with the deck stacked against us massively, we still won a landslide victory in the House and almost held even in the Senate. In particular, my vote helped flip the Arizona Senate seat, which is itself a miracle of voting power. The number of voters turning out was in record numbers for a midterm, which means we were motivated as hell to get Republicans out.

The 2020 map is much more favorable than the 2018 map, and statistics show that Democratic proportional turnout will likely be even higher since it's an election year. If 2018 was a Blue Wave, 2020 will likely be a Blue Tsunami.

Edited by PushoverMediaCritic on Jan 15th 2019 at 12:34:10 PM

Imca (Veteran)
#267345: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:34:45 PM

Just going to leave it with that people seem to take those three states as expecting all of them to victory, and unpacking them individually, when the reality was expecting at least one too, even one would have been fine.

The problem is they were incredibly hyped up races, billed as ones that actually had a shot at victory, against opponents who were nothing but pure aweful.

And then, every, single, one of them.... failed, not one scuess, not one takeaway out of the races billed as being the ones to watch.

Its pure moral defeat, plain and simple.... That so called blue wave was shown to be nothing but a myth by it, if it was a reality, at least one, any one of them would have gone another way.

And Charles is very right here, it does nothing but compound a "why is this nightmare not over yet feeling", especily when you fled your home country to what you thought was, and honestly was something better.... only to have the exact same bullshit follow you, right down to the verifiable insane racist leader... (Shintaro Ishihara is pretty much Trump if you ever want to look into him)

....

At this point though I think it would be best if I just go did... somethingnote , this is not helping my sanity at all, and nothing but making more depressed.

Edited by Imca on Jan 15th 2019 at 11:36:17 AM

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#267346: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:37:33 PM

[up] Over-the-top pessimism isn’t really helpful.

They should have sent a poet.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#267347: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:46:42 PM

[up][up][up]There's definitely something very very wrong with the current leadership of the Women's March. There's a reason one of its original founders Theresa Shook wrote a Facebook post denouncing them and urging them to resign.

“Bob Bland, Tamika Mallory, Linda Sarsour and Carmen Perez of Women’s March, Inc. have steered the Movement away from its true course. I have waited, hoping they would right the ship. But they have not. In opposition to our Unity Principles, they have allowed anti-Semitism, anti- LBGTQIA sentiment and hateful, racist rhetoric to become a part of the platform by their refusal to separate themselves from groups that espouse these racist, hateful beliefs.”

Disgusted, but not surprised
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#267348: Jan 15th 2019 at 11:55:23 PM

It's a marathon not a race here and I've been trying to take the attitude that anyone looking for a magic solution is going to have to let go of that feeling. On the other hand, I think the magic of lowered expectations is good.

Trump is no longer in charge of the House and he's a trainwreck of a President but his damage to the state has also been an inconsistent mess. He's failed many many times in his goals and he's lost a huge chunk of his ability to make America worse.

It will be a fight.

And will almost certainly be a fight in the 2020 Election. Every little bit like the re-enfranchising of voters in Florida helps, though.

But if you want to know when the nightmare is over? The nightmare is over when Trump is out of office. It also won't be for at least 2 more years.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
CookingCat Since: Jul, 2018
#267349: Jan 16th 2019 at 12:03:45 AM

[up][up][up] Why isn't pessimism banned on this forum?

[up] Technically 1 year.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#267350: Jan 16th 2019 at 12:11:48 AM

[up][up] Trump isn’t the source of America’s ills. Sure, it’ll be nice when he’s gone, but the whole “the nightmare will be over once he’s out” thing kind of overlooks the fact that there’s still going to be a long way to go after we’re done with Trump, and that this isn’t a nightmare or some unusual, outstanding event but just another part of the arc of progress.

Edited by archonspeaks on Jan 16th 2019 at 12:12:26 PM

They should have sent a poet.

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