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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Yeah, I am going to rant a bit about this. It is not a good idea for Beto or Castro (or Stacey Abrams if anybody is considering her) to run for president and I am quite dismayed that they are getting so much hype for that:
- It's an unduly risky Electoral College strategy; in 2016 Hillary did play for Sun Belt states such as Arizona and not only did it not work, she ended up losing the "blue wall" instead. In 2018 Democrats regained a lot of ground in the Rust Belt but the Sun Belt performance was only so-so. From that I'd infer (and Nate Silver tweeted something to the same effect
) that the "northern path" via PA, WI, MN, MI is still the correct road, while TX and GA are not quite ready yet.
- This is something I've complained about before, but people tend to overestimate the importance of the White House and underestimate the importance of having Senate gains and legislative gains in general. John Cornyn in TX (and David Perdue in GA if we are talking Stacey Abrams) is up for reelection in 2020 and if memory serves he's usually had only so-so approval ratings and Democrats need to make an effort at all races with sound candidates: a) While the 2020 Senate map is fairly favourable to Democrats Doug Jones is also up for reelection and for him winning another stint in Alabama is going to be hard; Roy Moore was simply a lucky break unlikely to repeat and if he loses the Senate map may come down to one or two marginal wins, b) if Democrats had had one more seat in 2010 cap-and-trade and campaign financing reform would have passed, and today we'd be one Cruz amendment and several Trumpist judges and appointees short
. One seat can make a fair difference, c) after the stunts outgoing Republican lawmakers pulled in WI and MI it wouldn't surprise me that a Republican Senate would not even discuss, much less approve, any nominee made by a Democratic president unless he's a total hack and d) presidential candidates are fungible as you can pick them from all 50 states while any Senate candidate has to come from that state.
When she took the Democratic nomination for her seat, she dethroned Joe Crowley, considered by many to be the next-in-line for Nancy Pelosi's position.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.I think Klingon Promotion would be a more apt trope.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanI also point out that plenty of people who voted for Obama didn't vote for Hillary even if they didn't vote for Trump. Identifying the flaws in her campaign and position as a candidate will be ideal for the next election.
They weren't huge flaws and she won the popular vote but the states that swung are important to analyze.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Reading tropes such as You Know What You Did
Maybe it will be the Michael Cole Cole Mine. Trump does love his coal even if all the plants are closing down after his promise for "natural clean coal."
Currently reading up My Rule Fu Is Stronger than YoursSo in a bit of odd news, Angela Davis had a Civil Rights award rescinded
because of her outspoken comments about the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, particularly her involvement in the "Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions" movement.
In the Southern Jewish Life article, author Larry Brook took issue with Davis' stance as an "outspoken voice in the boycott-Israel movement" and her comparing Israel's treatment of Palestinians to police shootings of African-Americans. (article itself
)
And with the Trump appearance on primetime - am I the only one who has the sinking suspicion that, given Trump being a reality TV star, that he'll use that opportunity to declare a National Emergency with zero heads-up to anyone, including his own staff? It absolutely fits the profile of his behavior, after all.
Nah, it'll be on cue cards like the "I hear you" one when he talked to the Parkland survivors.
Edited by ironballs16 on Jan 8th 2019 at 4:53:13 AM
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
x2 I won't rule it out, but even I think Trump knows it'd be a massively unpopular, a politically hostile, and a very deteriorating move for him to do. I think he's just going to posture and whine to try and keep the Republicans behind him. Until the words "I'm declaring a National Disaster" are uttered out of his lips, I wouldn't worry about it, but it is possible for those words to be uttered tonight.
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The sad part is that, The Naked Gun reference aside, it is entirely plausible that just that scenario will occur. It shouldn't even be a possibility, yet here we are.
Edited by ironballs16 on Jan 8th 2019 at 5:05:30 AM
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"Late to the "Trumpsters complaining about Trump hurting them rather hurting the ones they want being hurt" party, but I'll say my two cents regardless.
I do not believe they deserve anyone playing a tune on the world's smallest violin. That's a privilege that they simply are unworthy of.
Edited by MarqFJA on Jan 8th 2019 at 2:35:38 PM
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.Fine, fine. Redacted to respect you guys' sensibilities. Though I strongly disagree on the second and third accusations. Saying that it's "malicious" requires that they're innocent of the crimes they're accused of being party to. Saying that it's deplorable requires that what I want to do to them is Disproportionate Retribution at best, and blatantly immoral at worst.
Edited by MarqFJA on Jan 8th 2019 at 2:37:55 PM
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

I expect that Castro will instead end up the 2020 Texas senate candidate.
Edited by Silasw on Jan 8th 2019 at 6:50:51 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran