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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
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Well...that's dependent on a couple factors.
If anything happens scandal-wise to him (I mean something big, like being unambiguously caught out for treason), who ends up as the Democratic candidate, and whether the usual incumbancy advantage helps him in this case.
Edited by AzurePaladin on Jan 7th 2019 at 1:52:36 PM
The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -FighteerAnother factor I forgot to mention was the possibility of a strong third party candidate.
I don't mean a Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, I mean the possibility of a Ross Perot style popular third party candidate. Its pretty unlikely, but it would through every dynamic the race has on its head would change reelection chances based on who that candidate would appeal to.
Considering the current climate though, it would likely be most dangerous to the Democrats.
The awful things he says and does are burned into our cultural consciousness like a CRT display left on the same picture too long. -FighteerAbout Assange, I think we'd need to see the article that set him off before knowing whether it's Suspiciously Specific Denial or just a point-to-point rebuttal.
"And as long as a sack of shit is not a good thing to be, chivalry will never die."I stayed home in 2016 due to social anxiety from autism. Never again
No matter how uncomfortable crowds make me, I am voting in every election until the day I die. And it will be Democrats all the way
Now, we just have to hope the Democrats pick a good candidate. I hope it isn't Sanders or Biden, but I will vote for them anyway if they are chosen.
We cannot have any more Republicans in office.
The hardest thing in this world is to live in it.Trump is a weak candidate in many ways that Dubya wasn't, the reelection of the former does not mean that the latter's is likely.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangI will say Trump has a much better chance of being elected than any other candidate the Republicans could forward and would destroy anyone outsiders think would primary him.
People just don't get that the Republican voters like Trump and hate the rest of the party.
It's part of why they cling to him so much. They've lost all credibility with their base.
Trump hasn't.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.It’s worth noting that it’s not true that nothing impacts Trump’s approval ratings, there was a noticeable impact after he fired Comey (that never went away) and he took a solid dip after the attempt to repeal Obamacare.
Nothing beyond the Comey firing has made a big impact in his approval ratings, but the small variances can matter a huge amount, less than a single percentage point in the right states and he’d have lost in 2016.
Trump’s disapproval ratings also remain historically high, his approval raitings are no longer historically low (though that due to how other presidents got less popular in office, while Trump just stayed at a low level of popularity) his disapproval rating is high, people hate Trump more than they’ve hated a president before him.
As for a third party candidate, it comes down to who it is, if Romney or Kasich ran they’d basically be deliberately doing it to cost Trump the election, if Sanders or Bloomberg ran third party it’d be a risk to the democrats. Stein remains a minor risk depending on how much Russian support she gets come 2020.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranPeople just don't get that the Republican voters like Trump and hate the rest of the party.
It's part of why they cling to him so much. They've lost all credibility with their base.
Trump hasn't.
A much better chance of being elected in the primary, sure. But I absolutely don't believe that Trump is the best for a general election, a more mainstream Republican would have a far better chance because they wouldn't be fucking idiots and could actually hide the ugliness.
Don't confuse the insane radicalism of their base as anything approaching useful to their cause, it hurts their party far more then it helps it.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jan 7th 2019 at 2:35:50 PM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangI think Charles is right, much of the country has gotten wise to the ‘mainstream’ Republican shittyness, all they’ve got left willing to vote for them are the racists and the idiots, the Republican path to victory isn’t winning over a middleground group that barely exists, it’s doubling down by denying minorities the vote and promising the racisists everything they ever wanted.
Nixon bought about the southern strategy because it was how Republicans could win, this is the natural end point of that plan, they’re to far in to back out now.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranAnd that only happened because of Trump and other obviously insane candidates, he's the best they have because the actually decent candidates were driven away. There was talk amongst the Republicans of realignment and pursuing conservative Hispanics but then Trump and his populist ilk got elected and it all went downhill.
Trump may technically be the best they have but that isn't saying much.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jan 7th 2019 at 2:47:16 PM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangDon't confuse the insane radicalism of their base as anything approaching useful to their cause, it hurts their party far more then it helps it.
A mainstream Republican is a Democrat these days. What, exactly, is their platform that isn't anti-poor, pro-corporate, racism?
They have been moving further right and right for decades.
Trump may technically be the best they have but that isn't saying much.
Reality has a Democrat bias. The thing is as we saw with ACA, they can't move left because they have sold themselves to their masters and base specifically as the noncompromising reactionary idealogues.
As the Doctor said the to Dalek, "If you can't kill people what good are ya?"
Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jan 7th 2019 at 11:48:41 AM
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.I'm not talking about Rockefeller Republicans, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio were both mainstream Republicans and they were not anything approaching a Democrat.
They're pro-corporate, anti-poor, and racist without being as obvious about it as Trump. I'm not arguing there good people or good for the country, just less bad for the Republican Party.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jan 7th 2019 at 2:50:55 PM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangYeah, we saw in 2015 and 2016 that the "mainstream Republican" has nothing to offer the party over someone like Trump. The base doesn't want the corporate shills who pretend that their party isn't dominated by racists; they want candidates who are openly racist and pretend not to be corporate shills.
That kind of "straight talk" plays really well at the polls. The base wants candidates who watch Fox News and feed them Fox News talking points.
Edited by Fighteer on Jan 7th 2019 at 2:53:20 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Sure and I suspect that Jeb and Marco would have both lost to Hillary. The Republicans spiked every well around them, all they have left is the racist idiots, they had to exploit that to have a chance at willing.
Jeb or Marco would never have exited the racist idiot vote enough to win, they’d have failed at getting the ‘outsider’ title from the media that worked wonders for Trump.
Trump’s the best they’ve got, and that says tons about the Republican Party, it shows you how desperate and pathetic it has become.
And as we saw in 2016 with Romney the country as a whole doesn’t want a mainstream Republican, they’re not racist enough to excite the base and too cooperate for the hypothetical middle ground voter.
Edited by Silasw on Jan 7th 2019 at 7:56:08 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranAnd we saw they went over like wet noodles.
And God help us that Jeb Bush was the best of the bunch.
Absolutely, because the base is insane and completely out of touch with reality.
My point isn't saying that Trump isn't the only option for them going forward, my point is that he's the only option going forward and that's really bad for them.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jan 7th 2019 at 2:53:08 PM
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang

How likely is it that Trump is going to be re-elected? I mean, so far NOTHING has put even a dent in his approval rating.
Five Thirty Eight gave him a 30% chance of being elected in 2016 and I don't really see any reason to believe that it could plausibly rise above that.
Keep in mind that nothing dents his approval rating because the only portion of the public that likes him are his base, and he cannot reliably win with them alone. He barely won against a very flawed candidate (whom I still adore, I'm not throwing shade at Hillary just pointing it out) and as such, it's more than plausible that a less compromised candidate would have even better odds against him.
TLDR: Re-election is not impossible due to how partisan our nation environment is but that doesn't make it plausible. If any President could lose their re-election it'd be Trump.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang